NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 9th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point average listed uses FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Chicago at Miami – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -1.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| Chicago | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.21 | Team Pace | 93.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 13 | Opp. Season | 27 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 11 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are currently tied with the Raptors for the three seed in the Eastern Conference, so they are still battling for playoff positioning. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Heat, who are ranked seventh in points allowed per game this season. This would typically be a night to avoid the Bulls, but there are only two games on the slate, which makes it tough to avoid any one team in particular. Derrick Rose will play tonight in the second half of a back-to-back, but he will be on a minutes restriction once again. Aaron Brooks will see the majority of the point guard minutes.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 35-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Derrick Rose will be on a minutes restriction again tonight and Butler will continue to have a high usage rate with Rose off the floor. Butler’s price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He draws a decent matchup against Dwyane Wade and the Heat. I have him ranked right behind Wade as the best shooting guard option when factoring in price.
Editor’s Note: Jimmy Butler has been ruled out for Thursday’s game with a calf injury.
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Gasol has been Mr. Consistent and tonight is a great opportunity to target him at a depressed price point. Gasol has scored at least 35 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and he should be able to reach that mark again tonight, as he squares off against Udonis Haslem and the Heat, who are ranked 18th against power forwards over the last week of play.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $6500, DK: $6000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Miami
The Heat are in a must-win situation tonight, as they currently find themselves a full game behind the Celtics and Nets for the last two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley are both questionable for tonight’s game, but the Heat will otherwise be at full strength. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and fifth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 46-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7200, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.4)
With the Heat in a must-win situation, Wade is an easy play tonight in this short slate of games. The Heat need Wade to have a big outing and I expect just that from him. He does draw a tough individual matchup against Jimmy Butler, but Wade is an elite scorer and his price is currently depressed. He should be able to reach value with ease tonight.
Goran Dragic (FD: $6600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Dragic has the best matchup of any player on the Heat tonight. The Bulls are ranked 27th against point guards on the season and with Derrick Rose seeing limited action, he’ll match up against Aaron Brooks for most of this contest. That’s a matchup that he should be able to exploit. Dragic is coming off of a 42-fantasy point outing against the Hornets.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7600, DK: $6900 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Luol Deng (FD: $5600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Portland at Golden State – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Portland | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.22 | Team Pace | 100.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 16 | Opp. Season | 28 | 21 | 11 | 1 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 23 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 7 | 15 | 10 | 10 | |
Portland
The Blazers are all but locked into the four-seed in the Western Conference, although they can technically still move up in the standings. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after picking up an easy win over the Wolves last night. The Blazers are listed as 9.5-point underdogs tonight against Golden State, who has the best home record in the entire NBA. The Warriors do play at a very fast pace though, which does help the fantasy appeal of the Blazers tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 63-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9000, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge is right there with Pau Gasol as the top power forward option tonight. He has played well recently, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Aldridge also draws a favorable matchup against the smaller Draymond Green. The Warriors are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $6600, DK: $6400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum has been a little hit or miss recently, but there are very few options at small forward tonight with only two games on the schedule. Batum always seems to play well in fast-paced games where he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. His price has come down across the industry and he draws a pretty decent matchup against the Warriors.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Robin Lopez (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
C.J. McCollum (FD: $4600, DK: $3600 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Golden State
The Warriors have homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, so they have nothing to play for tonight, as they host the visiting Blazers. The Warriors may or may not decide to rest starters. We will likely have to wait until closer to tip-off until we know for sure. Even if the starters are in the lineup, there is no guarantee that they will see their usual allotment of minutes. I don’t have any Warriors’ players on my radar for cash games, but I will be using them sparingly in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 51-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $9900, DK: $9200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Draymond Green (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Klay Thompson (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
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