NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 18th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
New York at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -13, 191 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Prigioni-Hardaway-Acy-Dalembert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| New York | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.0 |  | Vegas Total | 191.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.09 | Team Pace | 96.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Pablo Prigioni | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Quincy Acy | Samuel Dalembert | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 4 | 24 | 6 | 22 | Opp. Season | 3 | 23 | 9 | 20 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 9 | 21 | 15 | 17 | |
New York
Here’s a quick list of the Knicks’ players that are expected to miss tonight’s game: Iman Shumpert, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Andrea Bargnani. The Knicks do have five healthy big men, but the majority of the point guard, shooting guard, and small forward minutes will be divided between Jose Calderon, Tim Hardaway Jr., Pablo Prigioni, and Shane Larkin. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls is not a great one, but there are a few Knicks in play thanks to sheer attrition. Even if this game gets out of hand early, the Knicks starters will see extended playing time.
Elite Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $4900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
The way I see it, Hardaway should be the first player to make it into your lineups tonight. With J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, and Carmelo Anthony out, Hardaway will see all of the minutes he can handle. He will also become the number one option offensively. He could easily end up playing 40+ minutes, even if the Knicks are down by 20 points. Hardaway has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last four games; a streak that he should easily keep alive tonight against the Bulls.
Jose Calderon (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
On paper, Calderon is not an appealing play tonight against the Bulls. He’s only averaging 30 minutes per game, he has a low usage rate of 14.1, and he is facing a top ten defense. Even with all of that, he is still an elite play tonight thanks to one word: opportunity. In the NBA, opportunity directly leads to production. Calderon should see all of the minutes he can handle tonight against the Bulls. He should also see a much higher usage in the offense with both J.R. Smith and Carmelo Anthony out.
Secondary Plays
Pablo Prigioni (FD: $4000, DK: $3300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
The Knicks starters have yet to announce their starting lineup, but it stands to reason that either Prigioni or Larkin will draw the start in place of Carmelo Anthony. Regardless of who starts, Prigioni is the better fantasy option of the two. He is a pesky defender that can knock down shots. He’s coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 29 fantasy points in 22 minutes against the Mavericks.
Chicago
The Bulls are expected to have Joakim Noah back in the lineup tonight, but they could be without their star point guard Derrick Rose. Rose is dealing with an illness and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Knicks. If he is forced to sit, Aaron Brooks and Kirk Hinrich would both see an uptick in minutes. The Bulls host the short-handed Knicks tonight. The line for the game has moved all the way up to -13. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, but Coach Tom Thibodeau typically likes to run his starters ragged, even when the outcome of the game is already decided. Plus, there are only four games on the slate tonight, which makes it tough to fade a team completely.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8100, DK: $7200 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
Butler is in play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s a much stronger play on DraftKings. There seems to be one or two players per night that are grossly underpriced on DraftKings. Last night it was Dirk Nowitzki, tonight it’s Jimmy Butler. Using a 5x salary value system, Butler needs to score 36 fantasy points to reach value. That shouldn’t be too difficult considering the fact that he’s averaging 36.5 fantasy points per game this season.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9100, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25)
Even with the return of Joakim Noah, Gasol is still a viable fantasy option. He is averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game this season. His price has slowly crept up over the $9,000 mark on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you don’t want to pay up for Anthony Davis tonight, Gasol is a great alternative. He should dominate the paint tonight against the short-handed front-court of the Knicks.
New Orleans at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -4.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| New Orleans | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.09 | Team Pace | 97.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 9 | 20 | 21 | 7 | Opp. Season | 20 | 14 | 30 | 3 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 2 | 25 | 21 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 14 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans have opened the season with a 12-12 record. They have been great at home (8-3), but have really struggled on the road (4-9). They head to Houston to take on the Rockets, who will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Vegas has the total for the game set at 201.5 points, but the Pelicans’ team total is only 98.5 points. That is considerably lower than their season average of 103.3 points per game. The Rockets are very stout defensively this season, ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency and 3rd in fewest points allowed per game.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $11800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Davis returned from his injury by scoring 31 points and grabbing 9 rebounds against the Jazz. He was not slowed down by his chest injury at all and should be considered 100% healthy for tonight’s game against the Rockets. Davis is averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks and 2 steals per game. His game on the offensive end of the floor continues to evolved. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Donatas Motiejunas and the Rockets, who are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing power forwards.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $8300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26)
There are a few things holding Evans back from being an elite play tonight. First, is the fact that this game is on the road. He has considerably worse splits on the road than he does at home this season. Second, is salary. His recent level of production has brought his price up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Finally, he is dealing with a knee injury. Evans is still in play, but the shooting guard position is surprisingly deep tonight.
Omer Asik (FD: $5400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Unlike shooting guard, the center position is rather bleak tonight. Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins are both in the process of coming back from injury. Asik seems like the safest option at center tonight. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. Plus, this is a revenge game. Asik was not happy as a member of the Rockets.
Houston
The Rockets may be playing on tired legs tonight, after picking up a win in overtime against the Nuggets last night. All five starters logged at least 40 minutes last night, which could be the reason that the line is set at -4.5 tonight. Dwight Howard played 42 minutes last night. It will be interesting to see if they decide to rest him tonight, as he has only played two games since returning from his knee injury. Make sure to keep an eye on his status throughout the day. If he is in the lineup, and not expected to be limited, he’s in play tonight. There are very few attractive options at center on this short slate.
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $11600 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Harden is coming off of yet another terrific fantasy outing. Here are his fantasy point totals over the last four games: 51, 67, 54 and 61 fantasy points. Harden’s price on FanDuel seems a bit too low and he should have a very high level of ownership there. He draws a terrific matchup against the Pelicans, who don’t have anyone that can match up against him. Even with Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry in favorable matchups, Harden is the top overall fantasy option tonight.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Ariza logged another 46 minutes last night against the Nuggets. He has now played at least 42 minutes in each of his last six games. While his usage in this offense isn’t particularly high, he will continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Beverley (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Point guard is always a very deep position in daily fantasy basketball and tonight is no different. I have Beverley projected to easily reach and exceed value tonight, yet he’s still not one of my favorite plays at the position. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games and draws a decent matchup against the Pelicans. The only issue here is that you can’t fit five point guards into your lineup.
Milwaukee at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -6.5, 204 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Dudley-Antetokounmpo-Sanders
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Milwaukee | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 95.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Jared Dudley | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 21 | 6 | 29 | 5 | Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 28 | 7 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 28 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 12 | 13 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Trail Blazers in Portland last night. Tonight they face the Kings in Sacramento. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 6.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 204 points. Both of these teams play at a relatively quick pace, which could lead to a high-scoring game tonight. The Kings are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 101.4 points per game to their opponents. The Bucks will obviously be without Jabari Parker tonight, but may also be without Giannis Antetokounmpo. He sprained his ankle last night and is listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7200, DK: $6900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Knight is in play once again tonight. He continues to be the most consistent fantasy option on the Bucks and he draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards. Knight is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game this season. He should be able to replicate a similar stat line tonight in an up-tempo game against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Khris Middleton (FD: $4900, DK: $5600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Middleton would obviously be a much better play if he was in the starting lineup tonight. That could happen if Giannis’ ankle injury keeps him out of tonight’s game. It could also happen if Jason Kidd decides to have a bigger starting lineup, rather than starting Jared Dudley at small forward. Check the injury news throughout the day and plug Middleton in at small forward if he finds his way into the starting lineup.
Sacramento
After practicing for the first time in weeks, the Kings are hoping to have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup tonight. He’s missed the last ten games with viral meningitis. While it will be tempting to target him tonight with few other options at center, his conditioning will certainly not be where it needs to be. The best approach to take here is to wait a game or two before targeting him in daily fantasy basketball. The Kings draw a favorable matchup against the Bucks. They are a fast-paced team (96.4 possessions per 48 minutes) that is giving up an average of 100.6 points per game to their opponents this season.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8600, DK: $9200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Gay is not listed as an elite play tonight for two reasons. First, his price has crept up and up, as he has been the go-to guy in the Kings offense over the last couple of weeks. Second, we don’t know how many minutes DeMarcus Cousins is going to play in his first game back. His production should take a hit with Cousins back. Gay is in play, but I’d rather pay up for Kevin Durant or save some money with Draymond Green.
Darren Collison (FD: $7600, DK: $6700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Collison has been in a slump over the last couple of games. He’s scored a combined 9 points in those two outings. He had scored at least 20 points in four of his previous five games. Having DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup should help take some of the pressure off of Collison. He’s a strong play on DraftKings, where he is listed at a bargain price of only $6,700.
Oklahoma City at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -3, 210 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
| Oklahoma City | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.05 | Team Pace | 100.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 25 | 11 | 24 | 1 | Opp. Season | 8 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 7 | |
Oklahoma City
This is not only the best game on the schedule tonight, but it’s also the one that is chock full of fantasy options. There are so many good teams in the Western Conference, but both of these teams are top four when healthy. This is expected to be a fast-paced, high scoring game. Vegas has the Thunder listed as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 210 points. Even though both of these teams are ranked in the top ten in terms of defensive efficiency, this game should turn into a track meet.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10800, DK: $11700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 36.9)
Westbrook is playing at an MVP level right now. He is averaging 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. And he’s doing it in only 30 minutes of action per game. Extrapolate those numbers over 35 minutes and we are looking at some historic numbers. Westbrook is basically matchup-proof at this point, as he can score, rebound, and defend. He’ll match up against Stephen Curry tonight in a battle of two of the best point guards in the NBA.
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21)
Ibaka is coming off of a season-high 7 blocks in the game against the Kings. His offensive production is rather inconsistent, but he is getting a lot more open looks now that Westbrook and Durant are both in the lineup. Ibaka’s price is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dollar for dollar, he is one of my favorite plays at power forward tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $9600, DK: $10600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 31)
Durant finally saw more than 30 minutes of action. He played 35 minutes and scored 33 fantasy points the other night against the Kings. I have yet to target Durant this season, but that may change tonight, especially on FanDuel where he is listed as a bargain price of $9,600. Durant has 60 fantasy point type of upside when healthy. I’m predicting him to have his best fantasy outing of the season tonight.
Steven Adams (FD: $4000, DK: $4300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 16)
Once again, the center position is a mess tonight. Adams is not a highly recommended play on most nights, but he’s seeing around 25 minutes of action per game and he’s a decent salary cap relief option. The once concern that I have with Adams is that both teams may decide to play small ball, which could leave Adams on the bench for the majority of the game.
Golden State
The Warriors had their 16-game winning streak snapped by the Grizzlies, but they will look to start a new streak tonight against the Thunder. The Warriors have a team total of 106.5 points, which is the highest on the board tonight. Andrew Bogut and David Lee have both been ruled out for tonight’s game, which continues to give a fantasy boost to both Draymond Green and Marreese Speights.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10200, DK: $10400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.6)
Curry or Westbrook? That’s the decision that will likely decide the fate of many lineups tonight. I have Westbrook ranked slightly ahead of Curry on FanDuel, but Curry slightly ahead of Westbrook on DraftKings. Curry is averaging 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists in 34 minutes per game this season. I expect his minutes to be closer to the 37-40 minute range tonight. While Westbrook is a terrific player, the Thunder haven’t been great against opposing point guards, ranking 20th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Thompson is a stronger play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. Not only is he considerably cheaper, but DraftKings also has the three-point bonus. On the season, Thompson is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. While the Thunder do have some long, athletic defenders to throw at him, I’m expecting another strong fantasy outing from Klay. The ‘Splash Brothers’ are my two favorite targets on the Warriors tonight.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7500, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
If you’ve read the Grind Down before, you know how much I love Draymond Green. He’s basically been in my lineups every time that he’s played over the last few weeks. With the injuries to Andrew Bogut and David Lee, Green is seeing all of the minutes that he can handle. He’s also a very versatile player on both ends of the floor. His price has come up a bit though, and his matchup against Serge Ibaka isn’t ideal. For those reasons, he’s listed as a secondary play.
Harrison Barnes (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
Barnes has been great at home this season, averaging 16 points and 7 rebounds per game. He doesn’t have a high usage rate in this offense, but he makes the most of his opportunities. He’s a serviceable value play at small forward tonight, but he may have to expend most of his energy on the defensive end of the floor.
Marreese Speights (FD: $5200, DK: $4900 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 29.6)
Speights finally saw some extended playing time the other night against the Grizzlies. Even with Andrew Bogut out, Coach Steve Kerr was only giving Speights around 20 minutes per game. He’s been a very productive player off the bench this season, averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute. Of all active players tonight, Speights is ranked 6th in fantasy points per minute. If he can see 25+ minutes of action tonight, he could make a terrific play.