NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Dallas at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5, 211.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
| Dallas | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.56 | Team Pace | 97.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Kendrick Perkins | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Season | 25 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 11 | 8 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks are expected to have both Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler back from their injuries tonight. The Mavericks’ also acquired Amar’e Stoudemire during the break, but he is not expected to play Thursday or Friday. Stoudemire’s presence moving forward makes this team even deeper, which is typically bad for the fantasy appeal of the team as a whole. Tonight, they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring affair. The Mavericks are 5-point underdogs in this game with their team total set at 103.3 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 28-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7200, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
Ellis has the highest usage rate of any Mavericks’ player this season. He is still the focal point offensively and is the premier option at shooting guard on a night with so few options at the position. Prior to the All-Star break, Ellis had scored at least 35 fantasy points in four of his previous nine games. He does draw a tough individual matchup against Andre Roberson, but the quick tempo of the game should help offset that.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6500, DK: $6700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Much like Monta Ellis, Nowitzki makes a strong play tonight thanks to the limited options on such a small slate. Nowitzki did struggle a bit before the All-Star break, but has still been one of the most consistent power forwards in daily fantasy basketball this season. While Serge Ibaka may be known as an elite defender, the Thunder have actually allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6400, DK: $6600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Parsons is by no means a “must-start” tonight against the Thunder. Not only does he draw a tough matchup against Kevin Durant, but there are quite a few options at small forward. Parsons has been playing his best basketball of the season though, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Parsons should be used as a contrarian GPP play tonight.
Oklahoma City
Reggie Jackson has requested a trade from the Thunder and it looks like he will be moved sometime before the trade deadline (most likely to Brooklyn for Brook Lopez). As long as Jackson is inactive tonight, Dion Waiters and Russell Westbrook should both see a small fantasy boost. The Thunder are 5-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks in a game that features a generous total of 211.5 points. This is an excellent matchup to exploit, as the Mavericks are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential this season.
Editor’s Note: Kendrick Perkins and Reggie Jackson have been traded from the Thunder. Keep them out of your lineups.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 36-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10900, DK: $10600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.5)
Westbrook will look to pick up right where he left off. In his last six game before the All-Star break, he averaged 55.7 fantasy points per contest. He continued his excellent play in New York scoring 41 points and winning the All-Star Game MVP. He may be asked to play a few extra minutes tonight if Reggie Jackson is traded. He also draws a premier matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 29.1)
Durant has yet to really break out this season, but he continues to improve his play in small increments. Over his last four games before the break, he averaged 45 fantasy points in 35 minutes per game. He should see closer to 40 minutes of playing time tonight in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game against the Mavericks. This is a rare occasion where both Durant and Westbrook are playable together.
Secondary Plays
Dion Waiters (FD: $4600, DK: $3500) and Mitch McGary (FD: $4000, DK: $3800) are both in play if you are looking for some salary cap relief at their respective positions. Waiters’ usage rate should go up if Reggie Jackson is traded and McGary should continue to see extended playing time with Steven Adams out.
San Antonio at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -2, 203 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
| San Antonio | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.33 | Team Pace | 96.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 16 | 24 | 15 | 16 | Opp. Season | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | ||
San Antonio
The Spurs should be well rested after the All-Star break, but we can never feel 100% confident with any of the Spurs’ players in our lineups. Unfortunately, the Spurs play again tomorrow night. While I expect the veterans to see their usual complement of minutes, their minutes are far from guaranteed. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. The Clippers are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 19th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 35-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
If you can’t find a way to get Kevin Durant in your lineup, or if you need two small forwards on a site like FanDuel, Leonard is a strong play at his price point. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He also draws an extremely favorable matchup against a Clippers’ team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. Leonard is the only Spurs’ player that we can count on to see 30+ minutes of action tonight.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $7700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Most of the industry expected Duncan to see extended playing time in his last game before the All-Star break. Coach Popovich had other plans, as he only gave him 18 minutes. This just goes to show that we can never fully trust the Spurs until they are faced with must-win games. Duncan has an attractive price tag and an attractive matchup, but should still be considered a fairly risky option tonight against the Clippers.
Danny Green (FD: $6200, DK: $4700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Green is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. There is a $1,500 difference between his price on DraftKings and FanDuel. At $4,700, he only needs to score 23.5 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He’s certainly capable of that feat, as he is averaging 26.6 fantasy points per game this season (DK scoring).
Tony Parker (FD: $5400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
It’s hard to tell if Parker is aging before our eyes or if the Spurs are waiting until the playoffs to unleash him. Parker has finally shown some signs of life recently though, scoring at least 20 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. His matchup against Chris Paul leaves much to be desired, but he only needs to score around 25 fantasy points to meet value expectations.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are doing everything that they can to tread water while Blake Griffin works his way back from injury. They have a tough task in front of them tonight, as they host the defending-champion Spurs. The Clippers are 2-point favorites in a game that features a total of 203 points. On paper, this is not an appealing matchup. The Spurs are ranked third in points allowed per game and ninth in rebounding differential this season. However, with only two games on tonight’s schedule, we have no choice but to target the Clippers.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 34-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Until Blake Griffin comes back, we are going to see a healthy dose of Chris Paul. In the last three games without Griffin, Paul has averaged 46.2 fantasy points per contest. His usage rate has also seen a spike, as it has been over 28 during that stretch. He is one of the top overall fantasy options tonight, even in a tough matchup against the defensive-minded Spurs.
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9000, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 12.3)
Jordan had back-to-back 20/20 games before the All-Star break. After an incredible 22-point, 27-rebound performance against the Mavericks, he backed it up with a 24-point, 20-rebound performance against the Rockets. He is being asked to play all of the minutes that he can handle with Blake Griffin out and the Spurs have been average at best against opposing centers this season.
J.J. Redick (FD: $4500, DK: $3300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Redick is as close to a “must-play” as you are going to find tonight on DraftKings. At a price of only $3,300, 20 fantasy points from him would easily reach and exceed value. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last two games and should be targeted in all league formats tonight. With Blake Griffin out, there are plenty of shots to go around in this Clippers’ offense.
Secondary Plays
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5400, DK: $5400), Matt Barnes (FD: $5000, DK: $4300), and Spencer Hawes (FD: $3800, DK: $3900) are all decent value plays tonight against the Spurs. All three see a small uptick in either minutes and/or usage with Blake Griffin out of the lineup.