NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Washington at Charlotte – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -1, 186 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Roberts-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Washington | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186 |  | Vegas Total | 186 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.80 | Team Pace | 95.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Brian Roberts | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 7 | Opp. Season | 6 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 21 | 29 | 10 | 4 | |
Washington
The Wizards have lost four in a row and six of their last ten games. They have been great at home, but are sporting a mediocre record on the road of 13-11. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in what is expected to be a close, competitive game. The Wizards are listed as 1-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of 186 points. On paper, this is not a great matchup to exploit. The Hornets play at a slow pace and are ranked fifth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 21-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25)
This play is more about Wall’s price point than it is about his matchup. Wall needs around 45 fantasy points to meet value expectations tonight, a feat that he is certainly capable of accomplishing. Wall has topped that mark five times in his last eight games. He also draws a decent matchup against the Hornets, who have not defended the point guard position as well as when Kemba Walker was in the lineup.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Beal is coming off of a solid three-game stretch, where he has averaged 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. What may be most impressive is the fact that he has averaged 41 minutes per game during that stretch. Beal also draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Hornets have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
I found an old Yahoo Answers! thread about how to type the sound of a heartbeat. Here we go: lub-dub, lub-dub, lub-dub. Did it work? Anyway, the point is that Gortat finally showed some signs of life last night. He finished the game with 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block in 29 minutes. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season and I like the buy-low opportunity against a Hornets’ team that rarely plays small ball.
Charlotte
The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season and they are doing it without Kemba Walker. They have won seven of their last ten games and have worked their way into playoff contention in the East. Tonight they host the Wizards in what should be a defensive battle. The Wizards are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season. On a typical night, the Hornets would be an easy team to avoid, but with a four-game slate, there are a couple of options that are in play.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 31-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8100, DK: $7600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Much like John Wall, Jefferson is in play thanks to his cheap price point, rather than his matchup. Marcin Gortat is one of the best low-post defenders in the NBA, as evidenced by the Wizards allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to centers this season. Jefferson is a tough cover for anyone though and his usage rate in the offense is extremely high with Kemba Walker out.
Secondary Plays
Brian Roberts (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Roberts is finally starting to look comfortable as the starting point guard for the Hornets. Over his last five games, he has averaged 22 fantasy points in 32 minutes of playing time per outing. He needs around 22 fantasy points to meet value expectations tonight, a number that he has proven that he can reach as a starter.
L.A. Clippers at Cleveland – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| L.A. Clippers | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.26 | Team Pace | 94.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 22 | 29 | 17 | 15 | Opp. Season | 3 | 16 | 19 | 12 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 23 | 25 | 5 | 12 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are currently tied for the fourth seed in the Western Conference. They are only four games behind the two seed and are only two games ahead of the seven seed. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in a nationally-televised event. The Clippers are 4.5-point underdogs here, but the total of the game is set at 207 points. The Cavaliers have played much better defense over the last few weeks, but are still ranked 22nd in efficiency on the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 30-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Paul is at his best when he plays against the best. Tonight his team squares off against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who have won 11 games in a row. While I still have DeMarcus Cousins and LeBron James ranked higher than Paul in my overall rankings, Paul is the best play of the three when you factor in his price. He has scored at least 44 fantasy points in three of his last six games.
Blake Griffin (FD: $9600, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
Power forward is a thin position tonight, which may force us to pay up for either Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge. Both are viable options, but Griffin is the stronger play of the two. He draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Love, who has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor. Griffin has 50 fantasy point upside tonight and he is listed under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
J.J. Redick is not going to play tonight, which means Crawford will draw another start at shooting guard. He’s been very productive this season, averaging close to a fantasy points per minute. He should see an uptick in minutes tonight and is a candidate to reach the production of 6x-7x his salary.
Matt Barnes (FD: $4800, DK: $4200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Barnes should also see a small boost with J.J. Redick out. The Clippers are thin at the wing and Barnes has played 40+ minutes in two of his last four games. He also offers some much needed salary cap relief on a night where value plays are few and far between.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won 11 games in a row and are now only three games behind the Raptors for the two seed in the East. We are looking at the Cavaliers in a completely new light in a matter of only three weeks. Tonight they host the Clippers in what should be a close, high-scoring affair. The Clippers play at a relatively quick pace and are ranked right around the league average in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 33-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 32.1)
James is the only Cavaliers’ player that is on my radar tonight. It’s hard to justify the price tags of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving when James is playing. He is so involved offensively that his presence brings down the appeal of the other stars around him. James has scored at least 48 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and is a tough fade tonight. Do whatever it takes to get him in your lineups.
Secondary Plays
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Mozgov’s minutes have been inconsistent, but he has still managed to score at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. During that stretch, he has averaged fantasy points per outing, which is right where he needs to score tonight to reach value at his price point.
Dallas at Sacramento – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3, 210 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Williams-Cousins
| Dallas | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.52 | Team Pace | 97.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 26 | Opp. Season | 22 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 16 | 5 | 15 | 26 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks expended a ton of energy last night against the Warriors. They blew a 22-point lead and eventually fell short to the Warriors behind a 51-point outing from Stephen Curry. The Mavericks will likely be playing on tired legs in the tail end of a back-to-back, which helps explain the spread. The Mavericks are only three-point favorites against a Kings’ team that has lost nine of their last ten games. This is one of the best matchups to exploit on tonight’s schedule, as the Kings have allowed the fourth most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 17-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 12.8)
Chandler continues to fly under the radar, despite seeing an uptick in both minutes and production recently. Over his last five games, he has averaged 13 points, 13 points, and 2 assists per game. He has played at least 30 minutes in ten straight, averaging 33 per game. His price is depressed he he draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to centers this season.
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6100, DK: $5700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Parsons has finally turned back into the reliable option that he was during his time in Houston. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. He should see minutes in the high 30’s tonight against the Kings in a game that will be played at a very quick pace. Parsons is excellent in transition as he can attack the rim and spot up at the three-point line.
Secondary Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
Hopefully you took heed of my advice (not sure that’s right) and faded Ellis last night. As I mentioned, Klay Thompson has become one of the elite defenders in the NBA. Ellis is in a great spot to bounce back tonight though. Rajon Rondo is still out, meaning Ellis should have a slightly higher usage in the offense. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Kings’ team that has allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Nowitzki has had three bad games in his last five outings, which is not typical for Dirk. He’s usually one of the most reliable players in daily fantasy. Look for him to bounce back tonight against the Kings. A discounted price tag only adds to his appeal.
J.J. Barea (FD: $3900, DK: $3400) & Devin Harris (FD: $3700, DK: $3900)
Let me ask you a question: Would you pay $7,100 on FanDuel or $7,300 on DraftKings for a starting point guard that was guaranteed to play 48+ minutes in a favorable matchup? Of course you would. Instead of debating between Barea and Harris, why not take both and load up on the other positions? Over the last two games, the combination has scored 41 and 43 fantasy points. That easily reaches value at a price point close to $7,000.
Sacramento
The Kings have not played well under Tyrone Corbin. They have lost nine of their last ten games and are looking more like the Kings of last season than the team that we saw at the start of the 2014-15 season. The good news is that they catch the Mavericks at a good time, as they played late last night against the Warriors. The Kings are projected to score 103.5 points tonight, which is considerably higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 33-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11100, DK: $10600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.5)
Cousins drops 50-burgers left and right these days. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in five of his last nine games and has a good chance of hitting that mark again tonight. It’s a small sample size, but in his first two meetings against the Mavericks this season, Cousins has averaged 24 points, 14 rebounds, and 7 assists per game.
Darren Collison (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Collison has quietly strung together some productive fantasy outings. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against J.J. Barea and the Mavericks, who were torched by Stephen Curry for 51 points last night. Collison is a safe cash game target with a high floor.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $7900, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Gay’s price is down, but his production has been down as well. A matchup against the uptempo Mavericks could be just what Gay needs to break out of his slump. The Mavericks are ranked 14th against small forwards this season.
Phoenix at Portland – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 213 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Phoenix | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.23 | Team Pace | 96.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | PJ. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Robin Lopez | ||
| Opp. Season | 26 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Season | 11 | 18 | 26 | 8 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 13 | |
Phoenix
The Suns are currently holding on to that 8th seed in the Western Conference, but the Thunder and Pelicans are hot on their trail. The Suns need a strong second half of the season if they are going to have any hope of making the playoffs. Tonight they head to Portland to take on a struggling Blazers’ team. The Suns are listed as 4.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 213 points. The Blazers are ranked in the top seven in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game, but the frenetic pace of tonight’s game should help offset that.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 33-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6400, DK: $5900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Eric Bledsoe is a decent tournament play, but it’s hard to justify his price tag in cash games. If you want exposure to the Suns, Morris is a much cheaper option. Morris has played well over his last four games, averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per outing. His price is affordable across the industry, especially on DraftKings ($5,900).
Isaiah Thomas (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Thomas is one of those players that produces at a very high level, yet he has a low percentage of ownership every night. Even though he comes off the bench, he sees 25+ minutes per game and is ranked near the top of the league in shot attempts per minute. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games and makes for a sneaky tournament play tonight against the Blazers.
Portland
The Blazers have lost seven of their last ten games, but they did pick up a win over the Jazz the other night. They have a chance for their second win in a row tonight against the Suns. The Blazers are projected to score 109 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the board. The Suns play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA and have allowed the 3rd most points per game to their opponents. Robin Lopez will play his second game back from injury. While his price point is appealing, I tend to give players a few games before targeting them in daily fantasy.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 28-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8800, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Lillard has been very open about his displeasure with being snubbed from the All-Star game. He is one of those players that doesn’t need a chip on his shoulder, but at the same time, he can elevate his game when he has one. Lillard has scored at least 39 fantasy points in each of his last three games and has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight against the Suns.
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5900, DK: $6000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 20)
Matthews has really played well over his last nine games, as he has averaged 27 fantasy points per game during that stretch. His price is still reasonable and he makes a strong play at shooting guard on a night with limited options at the position.
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9800, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.7)
The biggest debate that people will have with themselves tonight is Griffin vs. Aldridge. For my money, I’ll take Griffin against Love. That said, Aldridge is still a strong play tonight against the Suns. He has 50 fantasy point upside in a game that has the highest total on tonight’s schedule.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.7)
It’s hard to use a sample size of one game as a basis for recommending a player, but it’s hard to ignore Batum’s outing the last time he faced the Suns. He finished the game with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. He is also coming off of a 32 fantasy point outing against the Jazz.