NBA Grind Down: Thursday/Friday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Houston at Golden State – Thursday, 9:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -10.5, 220 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Houston | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220 |  | Vegas Total | 220 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.7 | Team Proj. | 115.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.3 | Team Pace | 100.7 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 17 | Opp. Season | 6 | 20 | 17 | 29 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | |
Houston
The Rockets played well in Game 1, but they eventually fell short thanks to a couple of big runs by the Warriors. The Rockets are listed as 10.5-point underdogs tonight in Game 2 with their team total set at 104.8 points. Dwight Howard left the game with a bruised knee, but he is hoping to play in Game 2. Luckily, we will find out his status before the game tips off tonight. If he is able to play, he would make an intriguing tournament option.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10100, DK: $9500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Harden had a terrific Game 1 performance, finishing with 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists. He was forced to take over offensively with Dwight Howard out in the second half and his big game is promising, after a mediocre series against the Clippers. Harden’s price is currently depressed and this is likely the last opportunity to target him at this price point. Dollar for dollar, he may be the top superstar to target in the Thursday/Friday slate of games.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Ariza played well in Game 1, finishing with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. We’d like to see him add to his peripheral stats, but he should have a good offensive series against the Warriors. He is at his best in transition, which is where the majority of this series will be played. His price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s a solid alternative if you are looking to fade LeBron James.
Josh Smith (FD: $6000, DK: $5400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Smith got off to a hot start in Game 1 and then benefitted from Howard’s absence in the second half. His minutes are not secure, but he’s been very productive when given the opportunity. He would see a major fantasy boost if Howard is unable to suit up in Game 2. Smith had 36 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action in Game 1. Even if Howard is able to play, Smith should push for 25+ minutes of action.
Secondary Plays
Terrence Jones (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.2) – Jones would move up to an elite play tonight if Dwight Howard is unable to suit up. Jones would likely see an uptick in both minutes and usage.
Jason Terry (FD: $3300, DK: $4300 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.1) – Terry couldn’t get anything going in Game 1, but he’s still a viable value play at point guard. Most people will lean to Shaun Livingston tonight, but don’t sleep on Terry, who has been terrific throughout the postseason.
Clint Capela (FD: $2400, DK: $2000 / MPG: 5 / Usage Rate: 25.5) – This pick obviously hinges on the health of Dwight Howard. If Howard is unable to play, Capela would make a strong value play tonight at PF/C.
Golden State
The Warriors were down big in the first half, but they went on a huge run in the second quarter. They eventually took Game 1 in what was a preview of what we can expect in this series: a lot of points. The total for Game 2 is set at 220 points, which is 21 points higher than the total of the Cavaliers/Hawks game. The Warriors’ team total is set at 115 points, which is easily the highest total on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10400, DK: $10400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry did Curry-like things in Game 1, finishing with 34 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. He has a chance to break the 50-fantasy point mark every time he steps onto the floor, especially in this matchup against the Rockets. If I had to rank the three superstars, I’d put Curry first, with LeBron James and James Harden close behind. Dollar for dollar, I’d put Harden first, followed by Curry and then James. The superstar that you choose will likely decide your fate in these small two-game slates.
Draymond Green (FD: $8200, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
I have Green penciled into all of my cash game lineups. His price has come down after a subpar series against the Grizzlies, making him a terrific fantasy option at his price point. Green scored 42 fantasy points in Game 1 with only 12 of those coming from points scored. He has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and the Rockets are one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending opposing power forwards.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3) – Thompson always has that high ceiling, but his low floor brings him down to a secondary play at his price point.
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8) – Barnes is a borderline elite play at small forward. He’s a low-risk, medium reward play. He usually plays better at home, which is a plus.
Andre Iguodala (FD: $4000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.6) – Iguodala only played 23 minutes in Game 1, but he has seen upwards of 30 minutes at different times throughout the postseason. He could see some extra run tonight if the Rockets play small ball.
Shaun Livingston (FD: $2700, DK: $2600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.4) – I don’t expect a repeat performance from Livingston (31 fantasy points in Game 1), but he has played at least 20 minutes in each of the last three games. He’s a serviceable punt play at point guard.
Cleveland at Atlanta – Friday, 8:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1, 198.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Shumpert-James-Thompson-Mozgov
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Cleveland | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.90 | Team Pace | 96.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
Cleveland
It only took one game for the Cavaliers to steal home-court advantage away from the Hawks. It will be interesting to see if they come out with the same type of focus in Game 2 or if they will have somewhat of a letdown after already picking up at worst a split in Atlanta. The Cavaliers are listed as 1-point favorites tonight in Game 2 with their total set at 100 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11700, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
James has faced some tough opponents in the postseason, yet he has averaged 54 fantasy points per game since the start of the second round. He has only dipped below the 47-fantasy point mark one time during that stretch, which has made him a great option for both cash games and tournaments. The one concern here is his price tag. He basically needs 55+ fantasy points to reach value. James Harden and Stephen Curry are slightly better plays, dollar for dollar.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Thompson had yet another good fantasy outing in Game 1 against the Hawks. He played 42 minutes and put up 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He has averaged 29 fantasy points per game over his last five and he should push for 40 minutes of action again in Game 2. The rebounding has been consistent with Thompson and you know LeBron James is going to find him underneath for a few easy buckets per game.
J.R. Smith (FD: $4800, DK: $4900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Smith had a monster performance in Game 1, scoring 44 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. He has now played at least 34 minutes in each of his last two games and should see starter’s minutes in Game 2, even though he is still coming off of the bench. Smith’s price will likely go up after tonight, so take advantage of the discounted price while you still can.
Secondary Plays
Iman Shumpert (FD: $4800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.2) – Had a very quiet Game 1. People tend to overreact in these situations. While I have him listed as a secondary option, he’s still in a good spot to bounce back in Game 2.
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.1) – Mozgov is the model of inconsistency. His minutes and production both vary game to game. He’s cheap, but he’s better suited as a tournament play.
Atlanta
The Hawks have yet to show that grit that they had during the regular season. They have done enough to win up to this point, but they are going to need a much better effort than they gave in Game 1 if they are going to have any chance in this series. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 1-point underdogs for Game 2 with their team total set at 99 points. DeMarre Carroll hurt his knee in Game 1 and is currently listed as questionable for Friday night. Make sure to avoid him on early-lock sites such as FanDuel.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7900, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
With Dwight Howard’s status in doubt, Horford is the easy play at center in the Thursday/Friday slate of games. He only had 26 fantasy points in Game 1, but the uptick in minutes is promising. He has now played at least 37 minutes in each of the last four games. The Hawks will likely treat Game 2 as a must win and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Horford play 40+ minutes in this one.
Jeff Teague (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Teague was the only Hawks’ player that reached value in Game 1. He scored 38 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He arguably has the best matchup of any player on the Hawks, as Kyrie Irving has not been the same defender since injuring his knee. Teague was able to get wherever he wanted on the floor in Game 1 and I expect that to be the case again here in Game 2.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8800, DK: $8000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6) – It’s not that Millsap isn’t capable of having a big game, I would just rather target Draymond Green at his price point.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2) – He has really struggled with his shot since the start of the second-round series against the Wizards. If he were playing better, he would be an elite play.
Dennis Schroder (FD: $4400, DK: $4800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 27) – He’s been a solid value play at point guard throughout the playoffs. His price is reflective of his recent level of production though.
Kent Bazemore (FD: $2000, DK: $2300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.5) – He would see an increased role if DeMarre Carroll (knee) is either limited or forced to miss Game 2.