NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 15th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
New York at Milwaukee – 3:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6.5, 198 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Hardaway-Anthony-Stoudemire-Aldrich
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
| New York | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.91 | Team Pace | 96.43 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Tim Hardaway | Carmelo Anthony | Amar’e Stoudemire | Cole Aldrich | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 9 | 23 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Season | 22 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 20 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 30 | 14 | 8 | 16 | |
New York
We have a rare day game on the slate today the as the Knicks and Bucks square off in London. Whether you are at work or at home, the early game gives us a little extra entertainment to make the day go by a little quicker. The Knicks have now lost 15 games in a row, but may have their best chance of a win in a while. Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are both expected to play today. The Knicks are still 6.5-point underdogs, but I expect them to be competitive for the first time in quite a while.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 20-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Cole Aldrich (FD: $5200, DK: $5500 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Even though Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are back in the lineup, Aldrich should still be on your fantasy radar. If anything, those two will free up Aldrich down low. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Bucks, who are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.
Jose Calderon (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.9)
Calderon has really struggled over his last eight games, but he hasn’t had any weapons to work with. Calderon is not a player that is going to take over a game offensively, which is why he has struggled so mightily recently. Now that Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are back in the lineup, I expect a much more productive outing from Calderon. His price is under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him an excellent value play in this short slate of games.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have been a pleasant surprise this season. They are 20-19 and currently sit in the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks have allowed their opponents to score an average of 101.9 points per game. As long as the Knicks are able to keep this game relatively close, the Bucks should be a good team to target.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Knight has been a reliable fantasy option all season. He is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game this season. He has a high usage rate (26.4) in the Bucks’ offense and he has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He draws a terrific matchup against Jose Calderon and the Knicks, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to points guards.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Pachulia has made the most of his opportunity with Larry Sanders out of the lineup. Over his last 10 games, he is averaging 27 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 30 fantasy points five times. His price is still under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against a Knicks team that does not rebound well.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Giannis has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He also played less than 30 minutes in each of those games. That doesn’t exactly bode well for him today, but I do like the matchup against the Knicks, who are a turnover-prone team that doesn’t play great defense. Expect the young Alphabet to bounce back in this one.
Khris Middleton (FD: $5200, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
Middleton has really played well since being inserted back into the starting lineup. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 26 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action per game. He is under-priced on DraftKings and is worth a look on FanDuel as well. He only needs around 25 fantasy points to reach value, which is a feat that he has accomplished four times in his last seven outings.
Oklahoma City at Houston – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Oklahoma City | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 97.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Kendrick Perkins | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 14 | Opp. Season | 26 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 25 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 14 | 19 | |
Oklahoma City
As Terrell Owens would say, “Get yo popcorn ready” for this one. The Thunder head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a battle between two of the most talented teams in the NBA. Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high-scoring game, which is typically the perfect recipe for production in daily fantasy basketball. While the Rockets do have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA, I’m expecting this game to turn into a track meet. If that’s the case, the Rockets will not be able to impose their will on defense in the half-court.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 27-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Choosing between Westbrook and Durant is typically a difficult decision, but it’s easier than usual tonight. Durant clearly has the better matchup of the two, as Westbrook will have to lock horns with the pesky Patrick Beverley. Durant has scored at least 47 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He draws a fairly favorable matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10700, DK: $10000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 38.7)
Even though I have Durant projected higher than Westbrook, that doesn’t mean that you can’t take both. Westbrook is still an excellent play tonight, especially on DraftKings where he is listed at only $10,000. Patrick Beverley and the Rockets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to point guards this season, but Westbrook isn’t your average point guard. He has one of the best pull-up jumpers in the NBA, which is a shot that I expect to see a lot of tonight against the smaller Beverley.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Ibaka is typically the third or fourth option offensively when he is on the floor. That’s not exactly what we like to see from a player at his price point, but Ibaka’s fantasy production isn’t dependent on strictly scoring. He is averaging 7.2 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. He draws a favorable matchup against Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith tonight. The Rockets have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards over the last seven days.
Houston
The Rockets host the Thunder in what is expected to be a high-scoring game tonight. The Thunder are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA when both Westbrook and Durant are in the lineup together. That bodes well for the Rockets tonight. The Rockets are projected to score 104.5 points in this contest. That’s still a high team total, but if I were a betting man, I’d take the over. With all the superstars on the board tonight, I will not be targeting Dwight Howard.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 18-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 98
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10700, DK: $10500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Revenge game! While there are no hard feelings between Harden and the Thunder, he will have a little added motivation to play well in this one. The Thunder have gotten the best of Harden in recent meetings, but I expect him to buck that trend tonight. He has scored at least 45 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is priced under $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It seems like a stars and scrubs type of slate.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17)
Ariza’s minutes have been down recently, but if you look at his game logs, he typically plays 35+ minutes in close games. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season and tonight is a great opportunity to buy low. Even with his minutes down recently, he has averaged 26 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. That’s right around the output that he needs to put up tonight to reach value.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Beverley (FD: $5600, DK: $5300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 17)
Beverley’s minutes have also been down recently, but I’m expecting him to see all of the minutes he can handle tonight (assuming he can stay out of foul trouble). He is one of the best defenders in the NBA and the Rockets will sick him on Russell Westbrook tonight. Beverley may find some success on offense as well, as the Thunder have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Cleveland at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -6, 205 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
| Cleveland | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.45 | Team Pace | 97.57 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 18 | 12 | 18 | 27 | Opp. Season | 14 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 27 | 29 | 11 | 25 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are at a make or break point in their season. They have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. This is when LeBron James needs to take over and put this team on his back. The Cavaliers should be able to end their six-game losing streak tonight against the reeling Lakers. This is a terrific matchup for fantasy purposes, as the Lakers are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10600, DK: $10700 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31)
James looked great in his first game back from injury. He has fresh legs and all the reason in the world to take over offensively. He also draws a premier matchup against the Lakers, who have one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. It will be tough deciding between Durant and James tonight. I have them Durant ranked slightly ahead of James, but both are terrific fantasy options at small forward.
J.R. Smith (FD: $6100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
The Cavaliers have wasted little time throwing Smith into the fire. Over his last three games, he is averaging 28 fantasy points in 37 minutes per game. His price on FanDuel may be a little high, but he’s close to a must play on DraftKings. At $4,600, he only needs 23 fantasy points to reach value. He should be able to accomplish that tonight against the lowly Lakers.
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $8500, DK: $9000 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 25)
Irving’s fantasy production takes a huge hit with LeBron James back on the floor, but he should still see his 38 minutes of playing time every night. He has a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team in the NBA this season. Irving makes an intriguing contrarian play for tournaments.
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
After two solid outings in a row, Mozgov forgot to show up the other night against the Suns. He only played 16 minutes and he finished with a very disappointing 5.2 fantasy points. He should be able to bounce back against the Lakers tonight. Not only do they struggle with opposing centers, but they are also ranked 23rd in rebounding differential.
L.A. Lakers
Kobe Bryant is expected to play tonight against the Cavaliers. He will then sit out the second half of the back-to-back on Friday night. Bryant’s presence helps the chance of the Lakers keeping this game close, but they are still listed as six-point underdogs in this one. The Cavaliers have not been great defensively this season, but there are few fantasy options that stand out on the Lakers. They have a deep and inconsistent rotation that makes fantasy production difficult to predict.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 19-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Wesley Johnson (FD: $5000, DK: $3000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Johnson is today’s DraftKings’ $3,000 special. He is not on my radar on FanDuel, but is close to a must play on DraftKings. He offers terrific value at small forward and will allow you to spend up on a couple of the superstars in the player pool tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $8500, DK: $8400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 34.6)
Bryant is strictly a tournament play tonight. He hasn’t played more than 33 minutes in any of his last six games. He has still been productive when on the floor, but it’s hard to pay a premium for a guy that the Lakers are considering shutting down for the season. Bryant will certainly be up for this game against LeBron James, but is a risky option in cash games.