NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Denver at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -11.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Denver | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.79 | Team Pace | 95.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 24 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 11 | 27 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 27 | 5 | 26 | 5 | |
Denver
Happy New Year Grinders!
The Nuggets have really struggled on the road this season. They are 4-11 away from the Pepsi Center and are listed as 11.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls. This will be a pace-down game for the Nuggets, as the Bulls only average 95.8 possessions per 48 minutes. The Bulls are also stout defensively, ranking 10th in efficiency. Even with all that said, there are only two games on the schedule tonight, so it’s tough to completely fade any one team.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 22-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8900, DK: $9700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Lawson is having a terrific season for the Nuggets, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose. On the season, the Bulls have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6600, DK: $6500 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Right when it looked like Faried had finally turned a corner, he puts up a dud against the Lakers (of all teams). Faried has had much better home splits than he has on the road throughout his career, but makes an intriguing tournament play tonight against the Bulls. Pau Gasol is not an elite defender, and we have seen the type of upside that Faried offers (40+ fantasy points in three of his last four games).
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5800, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21)
Chandler is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so make sure to get an update on his status closer to tip-off. As long as he is in the lineup, he will be in-play at small forward. The Bulls are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season and Chandler is reasonably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Arron Afflalo (FD: $5000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Afflalo has the toughest matchup of the Nuggets’ starters. Not only is Jimmy Butler an elite defender, but Afflalo will have to expend a lot of energy against him defensively as well. That said, there are very few options at shooting guard tonight. This puts Afflalo in play, especially on FanDuel, where you have to start two shooting guards.
Chicago
The Bulls are coming off of a loss to the Nets, but they have still won eight of their last ten games. They are 11.5-point favorites with their team total set at 109 points. This is obviously a great matchup for the Bulls, as they are averaging 102.5 points per game this season. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they are ranked in the bottom ten in terms of defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 13-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Once again, you should target opposing big men against the Nuggets whenever possible. They do not defend the paint well and routinely give up big fantasy outings to power forwards. On the season, the Nuggets have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards. Gasol is averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assists per game and should have no problem filling up the stat sheet again tonight.
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9300, DK: $8800 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Butler is easily the top shooting guard in this small slate of games. Lock him into your lineups and move on. He is having a career season, averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He plays around 40 minutes per game and gets to face a Nuggets defense that has allowed the tenth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Rose (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
The biggest issue with Rose this season has been his playing time. He rarely sees more than 30 minutes of action, which really caps his upside. That said, he’s one of the top point guards available tonight, given his price point and the limited options at the position. While Rose may not reach full value tonight (around 35 fantasy points), he should be able to come close against the up-tempo Nuggets.
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4400, DK: $4400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Dunleavy is a shooter and a darn good one. After struggling for a couple of weeks, he appears to have confidence back in his shot after scoring 23 points against the Nets. This is a great time to buy low on Dunleavy in a game that should be fast-paced and high-scoring. He offers a nice contrarian play at small forward tonight.
Sacramento at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -4, 211.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Hollins-Cousins
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Muhammad-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Sacramento | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.55 | Team Pace | 98.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Ryan Hollins | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Shabazz Muhammad | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 24 | 29 | 19 | 22 | Opp. Season | 21 | 26 | 7 | 30 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 19 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 26 | |
Sacramento
The Kings head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in a game that will likely feature little to no defense. The total for this game is set at 211.5 points and both teams are ranked in the bottom seven in terms of defensive efficiency. The T-Wolves are giving up an average of 108.7 points per game to their opponents this season. Don’t be afraid to have a good amount of exposure to the Kings tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10800, DK: $11100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33.4)
Cousins is the premier fantasy option in tonight’s small slate of games. He’s really the only player on the board that has 50-fantasy-point type of upside every time he takes the floor. He has had a terrific season, averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He also has a terrific matchup against Gorgui Dieng and the T-Wolves, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.
Darren Collison (FD: $7400, DK: $6600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Collison is primed for another quality fantasy outing tonight. He has been a nice fit for the Kings, averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists per game this season. He draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. At his price point, he should be one of the most popular picks tonight.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8800, DK: $8600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Gay’s price has reached a point that is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him. That said, on a night with so few options, you can’t rule him out in cash games or tournaments. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in five of his last nine games and draws a great matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Minnesota
Minnesota has lost nine games in a row and is only a game ahead (or behind depending on how you look at it) of the Sixers in a race for the worst record in the NBA. They are typically double-digit underdogs in most games, but Vegas has them only listed as 4-point underdogs in tonight’s game against the Kings. This should be a fast-paced, high scoring game with plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 13-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6600, DK: $6900 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Muhammad has really played well recently, averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game in his last eight. He has really stepped up in Corey Brewer’s absence. He will likely match up against Ben McLemore tonight, which is great news for his fantasy outlook. McLemore and the Kings have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6700, DK: $6700 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Dieng is an intriguing option at center tonight if you want to take the road less traveled and fade Cousins. Over his last nine games, Dieng is averaging 34 minutes and 31 fantasy points per game. The Kings have been stingy against centers this season, but Dieng racks up most of his fantasy points in statistical categories other than points. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Even though his matchup against Rudy Gay isn’t ideal, his price is low enough to offset the tough matchup. Wiggins has really played well recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in three of his last four games. His minutes have been inconsistent, but he can see upwards of 40 minutes when he is playing well. Small forward is the deepest position tonight (which is strange) and Wiggins will likely fly under the radar.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
I typically have a hard time using Young in cash games because his fantasy value is dependent on points and steals. He is only averaging 4.5 rebounds per game this season, which is extremely low for a power forward that sees as much playing time as he does. That said, he does draw a nice matchup against the Kings, who have allowed more fantasy points to power forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.