NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 22nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
San Antonio at Chicago – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -6, 198 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gibson-Gasol
| San Antonio | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.59 | Team Pace | 95.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 5 | 25 | 27 | 15 | Opp. Season | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 23 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs have won four games in a row and eight of their last ten. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on a reeling Bulls team. If this game was being played a couple of weeks ago, it would likely be close to an even spread. Instead, the Spurs are five-point favorites. The Bulls are not the elite defensive team that we have seen in years past. They can not defend the pick and roll, which could lead to a long night against the Spurs. The usual suspects on San Antonio are in play.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 27-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 25)
Parker broke out of his slump on Tuesday with 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Nuggets. Hopefully that game can kick-start him moving forward. As mentioned above, the Bulls do not defend the pick and roll well, which bodes well for Parker tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose and the Bulls, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8100, DK: $8300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24)
Duncan has not scored over 40 fantasy points in any of his last ten games, so basically if you are using a 5x salary value system, he hasn’t hit value in weeks. That said, he has scored at least 33 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls’ frontcourt that is without their best defender in Joakim Noah.
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Leonard has looked great since returning from injury. He’s coming off of a big fantasy outing against the Nuggets where he posted 17 points, 15 rebounds and 3 assists. His price has come up across the industry though, which is why he is listed as a secondary play tonight against the Bulls.
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
It’s Thursday night, which means we are guaranteed to hear Barkley say “GINOBILIII!” at least a couple of times. Not counting the game where he was injured, Ginobili has scored at least 27 fantasy points in five of his last eight games. His price is affordable and he provides good upside against a Bulls’ defense that is not all that intimidating anymore.
Chicago
The Bulls are not expected to have Joakim Noah tonight against the Spurs. He is listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. They may have Mike Dunleavy back in the lineup though. Dunleavy made it through a full practice on Wednesday and is tentatively expected to play tonight. The Bulls’ matchup against the Spurs isn’t one that we need to go out of our way to target. The Spurs are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 97.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 27-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Taj Gibson (FD: $5500, DK: $6100 / DvP: 22) – Gibson finally topped 30 fantasy points in his last start. Given his talent level and his increased role with Joakim Noah out, he should be able to reach that mark again tonight. In 12 starts this season, Gibson is averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks in 37 minutes of action per game. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he will see all of the minutes he can handle tonight against the Spurs.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9100, DK: $9300 / DvP: 22) – When you talk about players that have a high floor, Gasol is near the top of the list. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games, topping 40 fantasy points six times. His price is reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Spurs, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Utah at Milwaukee – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -8, 186 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Utah | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186 |  | Vegas Total | 186 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.82 | Team Pace | 96.28 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 9 | 29 | 13 | 17 | Opp. Season | 9 | 21 | 11 | 15 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 14 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 24 | |
Utah
Editor’s Note: Derrick Favors (personal) is out Thursday. Both Enes Kanter and Rudy Gobert get boosts.
The Jazz have lost seven of their last ten games. They have also struggled on the road (7-16). They are listed as eight-point underdogs tonight against the Bucks, which actually seems a little low. The Bucks have been terrific defensively this season, ranking third in defensive efficiency and holding opponents to an average of 97.1 points per game. The Jazz bigs are tough to predict on a nightly basis, especially when all three are healthy.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 21-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
The Bucks may be a strong defensive team, but they have shown a weakness when it comes to defending small forwards this year. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. Hayward has been the fantasy kryptonite of many this season, but he offers a high ceiling in a favorable matchup against the Bucks. He has a high usage rate in the offense (24.9) and needs to have a big game for the Jazz to have any shot of pulling off the upset.
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 14-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $4500, DK: $3700 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Does anyone else remember the crazy run that Ilyasova went on a few years ago? He seemed to top 40 fantasy points almost every single night. My, how the times have changed. The good news is that Ilyasova is cheap and is going to draw the start at power forward tonight. Both are promising for his fantasy outlook against the Jazz. At his price, I’m willing to take the chance on Ilyasova in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Knight is one of the most reliable fantasy options at point guard. He has a high floor, which makes him a safe target in cash games. Knight also has a high ceiling which makes him an intriguing tournament option as well. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and draws a decent matchup against Trey Burke and the Jazz.
Khris Middleton (FD: $5300, DK: $5100 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
Middleton has played well over his last nine games, averaging 26 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action per game. He is still a member of the Bucks, which means his minutes are going to be inconsistent, but he offers some much-needed salary cap relief on a night were value plays are few and far between.
Boston at Portland – 10:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -7.5, 204 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Zeller
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Wright-Kaman
| Boston | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.12 | Team Pace | 96.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Dorell Wright | Chris Kaman | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 11 | Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 14 | 27 | 7 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 30 | |
Boston
The Celtics have lost eight of their last ten games. The good news is that they are catching the Blazers at a good time, as they will likely be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight. Aldridge is the main weapon offensively and is their anchor defensively. If he was in the lineup, the spread for the game would likely be in the double-digits. This game is expected to be played at a fast-pace and as long as the Celtics can keep it close, it will be full of fantasy-goodness.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 31-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Sullinger, Sullinger, Sullinger! Remember that name when putting together your lineups today. He is likely going to be overlooked, which is more than fine with me. Sullinger is playing some of his best basketball of the season, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last six games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the smaller Dorell Wright. I’m calling for a monster double-double from Sullinger tonight.
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $6000, DK: $5300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Turner is more of a tournament play than a cash game play. He loses minutes to Marcus Smart (who is worth a look in tournaments as well) and has been very inconsistent recently. The good news is that he does offer a high ceiling. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points four times in his last nine games and the Blazers have struggled against point guards this season.
Portland
I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down that all five starters on the Blazers were in play with LaMarcus Aldridge out. The Blazers stack certainly didn’t disappoint. With Aldridge tentatively expected to miss tonight’s game, the Blazers should be the top team to target. All five starters should see a boost in minutes and/or usage with Aldridge out. Plus, they draw an extremely favorable matchup against the Celtics, who have allowed 104.2 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 13-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $9000, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Lillard was the one starter that didn’t quite reach value last night. He should be able to bounce back tonight at home against the Celtics. He may see some of Avery Bradley’s defense, but that’s not enough to make me fade Lillard tonight. His usage rate in this game should be off the charts and the Blazers are projected to score 106 points. Lillard is the top point guard play on the board tonight.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5300, DK: $5300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum broke out of his slump last night with 27 actual points and 46 fantasy points. He had the fantasy trifecta in his favor last night and has it in his favor again tonight. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season, he should have an increased role in the offense with Aldridge out, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics.
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Matthews had a rough first half, but caught fire in the third and fourth quarters. He finished the game with a respectable 34 fantasy points. If the Celtics decide to stick Avery Bradley on Damian Lillard, Matthews will draw the more favorable matchup against Evan Turner. He’s close to a must play on a night with few options at shooting guard.
Secondary Plays
Chris Kaman (FD: $4600, DK: $4400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
My hope is that most DFS’ers will see Kaman’s 19 and 21 minutes over his last two games and avoid him tonight. The only reason Kaman didn’t come back into the game is because the Blazers made a huge comeback with Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson. That’s not going to happen every night. I fully expect Kaman to see 25+ minutes of action in a game where his usage should be a big higher than usual. I have Kaman listed as my favorite play at center tonight and it’s not even close.
Dorell Wright (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 10 / Usage Rate: 16)
Wright got the start last night and did not disappoint. Even with the late swap on DK, I decided to stick with Meyers Leonard because I wasn’t sold on Wright. Obviously, I made the wrong call there. As long as he draws the start again tonight, he deserves a spot in your lineups. He’s minimum salary and has a favorable matchup against the Celtics.
Brooklyn at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -11.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Brooklyn | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.18 | Team Pace | 96.48 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 21 | Opp. Season | 18 | 23 | 5 | 24 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 29 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 30 | 14 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets blew their big lead against the Kings last night, but held on to win for only their second win in their last ten games. Tonight they travel to Los Angeles to take on a very talented Clippers team. Vegas has the Nets listed as 11.5-point underdogs in this one. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, which is typically bad news for fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 28-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 27.2)
Lopez will make a strong play if, and only if, Kevin Garnett is rested in the second half of the back-to-back. Lopez has really played well recently, but hasn’t seen enough minutes to warrant fantasy consideration. That will change tonight if he draws the start.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are huge favorites at home tonight against the Nets. On paper, this isn’t as great of a matchup as you would think. The Nets play at a fairly slow pace and have been slightly above-average defensively. They have held their opponents to an average of only 97.8 points per game. With the mediocre matchup and the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, I have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin listed as secondary plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 18-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
J.J. Redick (FD: $4700, DK: $4200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Redick is an elite play tonight for three reasons. First, his price is very affordable. He only needs around 21-23 fantasy points to reach value tonight. Second, is the lack of other options at shooting guard. And finally, he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $10000, DK: $9800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.4)
The Nets struggle to defend power forwards this season, allowing the 7th most fantasy points to the position. Griffin has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and is a solid play if you are willing to brave the elements of a potential blowout.
Chris Paul (FD: $9800, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Paul is under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 18th against point guards this season. For the money, I’d rather target Damian Lillard (assuming Aldridge is out), but Paul could make an intriguing tournament option on a night where his percentage of ownership will be fairly low.