NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Milwaukee at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -4, 204.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Gordon-Frye-Vucevic
| Milwaukee | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.3 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.24 | Team Pace | 96.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Aaron Gordon | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 3 | 27 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 26 | 13 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 22 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 17 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are one game above .500 on the season and are currently sitting in the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. They travel to Orlando tonight to face the Magic, in what quickly has become one of the best matchups in the NBA. Over their last seven games, the Magic have allowed their opponents to score an average of 115 points. The Bucks’ players should benefit from the quick pace of play in this game. It pains me to say it, but it may be a good night to load up on the Bucks.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7300, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Knight has really developed as a point guard under head coach Jason Kidd. On the season, he is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He has also developed a level of consistency that we haven’t seen from him in the past. He makes for a strong play tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 29th against point guards this season. Knight may be the biggest beneficiary of the quick tempo expected in this game.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.9)
In 19 starts this season, Pachulia has averaged 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has also been a consistent source of production, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Nikola Vucevic and the Magic, who are ranked 29th against centers this season. He is currently listed as questionable, but makes for a strong play as long as he gets the green light to play. If he is forced to sit, John Henson would likely draw the start in his place.
Editor’s Note: Pachulia has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Henson will start in his place.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
If I had to describe Antetokounmpo’s play in 20 words, consistent would not make the list. He does have a ton of talent though, and he’s still a very young player that will continue to develop and get better. Tonight’s game against the Magic is one that he should play well in, as there will be plenty of opportunities for the Bucks in transition.
Khris Middleton (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Middleton has really played well over his last nine games, averaging 26 fantasy points in 30 minutes of playing time per game. The Magic have been tough on shooting guards this season, but Middleton should have a nice size advantage over Victor Oladipo. He’s a strong play at small forward, as that position is a barren wasteland tonight.
Orlando
The Magic have become one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Over the last three weeks, only the Warriors have averaged more possessions per 48 minutes. The new style of play has really given the Magic a fantasy boost, as there are more shots, rebounds, and assists to go around. Tonight they host a Bucks’ team that has been terrific defensively this season. They are ranked second in defensive efficiency, holding their opponents to an average of 97.2 points per game. Look for the Magic to push the pace so the Bucks can’t set up their defense in the half-court.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 23-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $9100, DK: $8600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Vucevic comes into tonight’s game on the heels of a terrific four-game stretch, where he averaged 26 points and 13 rebounds per game. His usage rate is one of the highest of any center in the league and he may face a very short-handed Bucks’ frontcourt. Ersan Ilyasova has already been ruled out and Zaza Pachulia is questionable. Vucevic should be in line for another monster double-double tonight against the Bucks.
Victor Oladipo (FD: $7000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Oladipo’s numbers have really improved in the new uptempo offense of the Magic. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Consider Oladipo as one of the top options at shooting guard tonight.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton (FD: $6000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Payton has morphed from a risky tournament option to a reliable cash game play. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game. The most impressive part is that he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in every game during that stretch. He does draw a tough matchup against Brandon Knight, but he makes an intriguing contrarian play at point guard.
New York at Indiana – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -8, 184 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| New York | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 184 |  | Vegas Total | 184 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.81 | Team Pace | 95.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 10 | Opp. Season | 21 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 14 | 24 | 6 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 26 | |
New York
The Knicks have won four of their last five games, after only picking up five wins in their first 32 games. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on a defensive-minded Pacers’ team. Carmelo Anthony is questionable for tonight’s game, as the Knicks may decide to rest him on the second half of a back-to-back. If Anthony does get the night off, Langston Galloway and Tim Hardaway would be the biggest beneficiaries. Overall, this isn’t a great matchup, but there are a couple of terrific value plays on the Knicks.
Editor’s Note: Carmelo Anthony will play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 16-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $4800, DK: $4300 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Galloway has been a terrific find for the Knicks. He may not have the most talent in the world, but he brings a ton of energy on both ends of the floor. Over his last five starts, he has averaged 29 fantasy points per game. Given his price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he should be able to reach value with ease tonight against the Pacers.
Jason Smith (FD: $4200, DK: $3900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Smith is doing his best impression of early-season Cole Aldrich. Over his last five games, he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action per game. The industry has yet to adjust his price to his recent level of production, which gives us another opportunity to buy low on the Knicks’ big man. Smith is one of the top value plays on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana
The Pacers are only a few games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, but they aren’t doing themselves any favors by losing eight of their last ten games. The Pacers are in a good spot to pick up a win tonight though, as Vegas has the team listed as eight-point favorites against the Knicks. While the Knicks may play at a slow pace, they still offer up a favorable matchup for the Pacers, as they are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. On the season, they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 100.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 9-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
David West (FD: $6500, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
West is the ultimate cash play. While he may not have the highest ceiling, he’s basically a lock for 25+ fantasy points per game. On the season, he is averaging 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. His ability to fill up the stat sheet is what gives him such a high floor. West is a safe play tonight against the make-shift frontcourt of the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $4900, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
C.J. Miles is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit out, Stuckey would see a sizable fantasy boost. Stuckey played well in Miles’ absence the other night, scoring 30 fantasy points against the Raptors. Stuckey is a high usage player that draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks.
C.J. Watson (FD: $4300, DK: $4300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.2)
George Hill is still on a minute-restriction, which means Watson will continue to see 25-30 minutes per game. He has played well over his last four, averaging 22 fantasy points per game. He offers good value at point guard tonight against Jose Calderon and the Knicks.
Denver at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -10.5, 199 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| Denver | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.50 | Team Pace | 94.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 17 | 18 | 6 | 1 | Opp. Season | 17 | 26 | 21 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 12 | |
Denver
The Nuggets find themselves in a very tough matchup tonight against the Grizzlies. They have lost seven of their last ten games, they are only 7-15 on the road, and they are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. Vegas has the Nuggets listed as 10.5-point underdogs tonight. Facing the Grizzlies is one of the toughest matchups in basketball. They make opponents play down to their pace and they are ranked third in points allowed per game this season. Even on a short slate, we can safely avoid the Nuggets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 33-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies have won eight of their last ten games and currently sport an impressive 19-5 record at home. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the uptempo Nuggets. Not only do the Nuggets play at a fast-pace, but they also struggle on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed opponents to score an average of 104.1 points per game this season, which is the fifth most of any team in the NBA. One situation that we need to monitor is the status of Mike Conley. He has sat out the last two games with a wrist injury. If he is ruled out tonight, Beno Udrih would become a near must-start on such a short slate.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $8600, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Randolph has been on a tear since returning from his injury. He has posted a double-double in each of his last ten games, averaging 20 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. The Grizzlies have basically ran the “give the ball to Z-Bo and get out of the way” offense. He should dominate the paint against the Nuggets, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Gasol has taken a backseat to Randolph as the main option offensively, but he’s still been a very productive fantasy option. Gasol is one of the most complete players in the NBA, averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He should also be in for a big outing against the soft frontcourt of the Nuggets.
Jeff Green (FD: $5200, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
As someone posted in the NBA First Look, Green is about as reliable as a dull razor blade. It’s tough to be confident when Green finds his way onto your roster, but he deserves consideration tonight. There are very few options at small forward, especially if the Knicks decide to rest Carmelo Anthony.
Chicago at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -8.5, 196 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Hill-Sacre
| Chicago | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.87 | Team Pace | 97.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Jordan Hill | Robert Sacre | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 24 | Opp. Season | 15 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 25 | 18 | 11 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 29 | |
Chicago
The Bulls ended the Warriors 19-game home winning streak the other night with an impressive victory in overtime. They draw a much easier road matchup tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed the second-most points per game to their opponents this season (106.0). This will be a pace-up game for the Bulls and as long as the Lakers can keep this one within striking distance, the Bulls will be a great source of fantasy production. Jimmy Butler and Mike Dunleavy are both listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game. Butler has the better chance to play of the two.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 106 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9500, DK: $9300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Gasol has been one of the best bigs in the East this season, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He has been a reliable fantasy option, scoring at least 38 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. Tonight he goes back to Los Angeles where he helped the Lakers win two championships. He should receive a warm welcome from the fans.
Derrick Rose (FD: $7200, DK: $7600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31)
Now is the time to buy low on Rose. He no longer has a minute-restriction and he is finally starting to attack the rim with an aggressiveness that we haven’t seen in years. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 35 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action per game. He is an elite play tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $6500, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
After saying that he felt healthier than he had all season, Noah broke out of his slump with 18 points, 15 rebounds, and 6 assists against the Warriors. He’s still a risky fantasy option until he can prove that he can string together a few solid outings in a row. That said, he does offer good upside at his price point.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers don’t have anything to play for at this point, which is why they are giving their young players the chance to show what they can do. Carlos Boozer and Jeremy Lin have been relegated to roles off the bench, while Jordan Clarkson and Wayne Ellington are playing all of the minutes they can handle. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls is a mediocre one. The Bulls play at an average pace and have allowed 99.4 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 30-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $3700, DK: $3800 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Clarkson’s first three matchups as a starter were against the Spurs, Rockets, and Wizards, so we can give him a pass for only averaging 18 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Clarkson has a lot of raw talent and should see 30+ minutes of action tonight against the Bulls. He makes a strong value play in all league formats tonight.
Secondary Plays
Wayne Ellington (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Ellington is coming off of a terrific four-game stretch where he has averaged 27 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action per game. His price has come up across the industry, but he’s still in play tonight against the Bulls. He would also see a small fantasy boost if Jimmy Butler is unable to suit up.
Robert Sacre (FD: $3700, DK: $3400 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Sacre offers decent value at center tonight if you need to punt the position. He has been starting recently and he’s been a serviceable value play over his last three games, averaging 18 fantasy points per contest.