NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Charlotte at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -12.5, 200 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Fields-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Charlotte | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.81 | Team Pace | 95.85 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | Landry Fields | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 6 | Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 16 | 30 | 16 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 24 | 24 | 8 | 22 | |
Charlotte
There are only three games on the schedule tonight, but hey, three is better than the usual two-game slate on Thursdays. The first game of the night is between the Hornets and the Raptors. The Hornets have won three in a row, but are 12.5-point underdogs tonight in Toronto. The Hornets may not pick up a win here, but they are in a favorable matchup in terms of potential fantasy production. The Raptors are a fast-paced team that wins with offense. They are only ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 101.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 24-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $9000, DK: $9900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson have both been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Raptors, which means we will see another episode of the Kemba show. He has been terrific in his last three games, scoring at least 30 points and compiling over 40 fantasy points in each. His usage rate goes up drastically with Jefferson and Stephenson off the floor. Tonight he’ll match up against another top point guard in Kyle Lowry. While Lowry is generally thought of as an elite on-ball defender, the numbers suggest otherwise. The Raptors have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $4900, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Hopefully, someone took my advice yesterday and played Henderson. He scored over 30 fantasy points for the third time in his last six games. With Jefferson and Stephenson sidelined, he has gone from a bench player to the Hornets’ second option offensively. His price is still affordable across the industry and is at a point where he needs around 25 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that, as he has scored over 25 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. Henderson is a low-risk, moderate-reward fantasy option tonight.
Secondary Plays
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD: $5400, DK: $5400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
MKG has seen a spike in playing time with Lance Stephenson out. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 30 minutes and 25 fantasy points per game. His usage rate in the offense is actually higher than you might expect from a player who gains most of his recognition on the defensive side of the floor. MKG is in play tonight against a Raptors defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the small forward position this season.
Cody Zeller (FD: $5200, DK: $5100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
If you look at Zeller’s game logs, his fantasy production has been consistent over his last six games. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every single game. The issue is that his playing time has been all over the map. He has played anywhere from 20 minutes to 32 minutes during that stretch and it doesn’t seem to be tied to how well he is playing. Given his matchup against the big front-court of the Raptors, I’d expect him to see closer to 30 minutes than 20 minutes tonight.
Toronto
The Raptors are on a rare three-game losing streak. Their record of 24-10 is still good enough for the second seed in the East, but they have fallen two and a half games behind the Hawks. The Raptors will look to end their slide tonight against the Bobcats, who are only 5-12 away from home. The Bobcats play at an average pace and have an average defense. Vegas has the Raptors projected to score 111 points tonight though, which is considerably higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 13-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9800, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
If you find yourself debating between Lowry and Kemba Walker tonight, you really can’t go wrong with either. It’s like deciding between steak and ribs. Both are enticing options, it just depends on which price point suits your budget better. Lowry is a little more expensive than Walker, but provides a much higher floor. He has scored at least 41 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. He has a very high usage rate in this offense and is a player that can contribute in multiple statistical categories. If salary is not an issue, Lowry is the top point guard available tonight.
Secondary Plays
Amir Johnson (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
It can be tough targeting a player that relies on rebounds, blocks, and dunks for his fantasy production, but on a night with only three games, Johnson is in play at power forward. He’s not a consistent player by any means, but he does offer decent upside for the price. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last six games.
Lou Williams (FD: $5200, DK: $4600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 26)
I originally had Terrence Ross listed here, but Williams has been seeing about the same playing time as Ross and has a much higher usage rate in this offense. Over his last eight games, Williams is averaging 29 minutes and 24 fantasy points per game. Sweet Lou typically has a low level of ownership because he comes off the bench, but is worth consideration at shooting guard tonight.
Houston at New York
- Vegas Line – Houston -12, 192.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Prigioni-Hardaway-Acy-Aldrich
| Houston | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192.5 |  | Vegas Total | 192.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 92.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 92.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Pablo Prigioni | Tim Hardaway | Quincy Acy | Cole Aldrich | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 22 | Opp. Season | 2 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 21 | |
Houston
The Rockets haven’t played very well since acquiring Josh Smith, but they did pick up a win over Cleveland last night. They should make it two in a row, as they head to New York to take on a Knicks team that has lost their last 13 games. The Knicks are going to be without their two best players once again and, consequently, Vegas has the Rockets listed as 12-point favorites. The Knicks may be one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA, but they make up for it with a lack of effort on the defensive side of the floor. They are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 101.2 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Dwight Howard (FD: $8900, DK: $8500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
The popular play at center tonight is going to be Chris Kaman, but if you want to differentiate your lineups, Howard is a terrific option. He has looked great over his last three games, averaging 17 points and 15 rebounds per contest. Tonight he’ll match up against the likes of Cole Aldrich, Jason Smith, and Quincy Acy. I’m a fan of all three of those matchups. The Knicks have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to centers this season and may drop even further in the DvP rankings after Dwight is done with them.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
After a quiet five-game stretch, Ariza has bounced back nicely with 30 and 35 fantasy points over his last two. He still doesn’t have a particularly high usage rate in the offense, but he is still averaging 35+ minutes per game. His price is at an all-time low right now and this may be our last opportunity to snag him at this price before it goes back up to the $6,000 range. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the turnover-prone Tim Hardaway Jr.
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $10300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
Harden is easily the top option at shooting guard tonight. The issue is that there aren’t a ton of value plays with such a short slate of games. That makes it difficult to spend up on Harden, especially if you are targeting the expensive point guards. Harden is obviously still a great fantasy option, though. He is averaging 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game this season. I have a hard time seeing Pablo Prigioni slowing Harden down.
Patrick Beverley (FD: $5600, DK: $5100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Beverley is having a very productive season for the Rockets, especially when you consider the fact that he plays off the ball for most of the game. On the season, he is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He offers good salary cap relief if you want to pair him up with one of the more expensive point guards on the schedule.
New York
The Knicks are an absolute mess right now, and it doesn’t look like there is a light at the end of the tunnel, at least not this season. They have lost a franchise-record 13 games in a row. They are huge underdogs again tonight and have very little chance of ending their losing streak without Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire, who have both already been ruled out. The Rockets are one of the best defensive teams in the entire NBA, making the Knicks secondary options at best tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 24-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Cole Aldrich (FD: $5600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
After taking the DFS world by storm with his terrific four-game stretch, Aldrich has come back down to Earth. Over his last three games, he is only averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds per game. While the Knicks are certainly short-handed down low, his matchup against Dwight Howard is one that leaves much to be desired. Not only is foul trouble a concern, but Howard is no slouch defensively. Aldrich is in play, but personally, I’d rather spend up on Howard or take the cheaper route with Kaman.
Jose Calderon (FD: $5200, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Calderon has not played very well this season. He is only averaging 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. That’s not exactly the type of production that the Knicks were hoping for. He should see 30+ minutes of action tonight though, with the possibility for more if the Knicks can keep it close. I love his price on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but I don’t love the matchup against Patrick Beverley and the Rockets, who have held point guards to the second fewest amount of fantasy points this season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $5400, DK: $5100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Hardaway is arguably the Knicks’ best offensive player right now. This certainly won’t be an efficient game from Hardaway, but you have to imagine that he will chuck up plenty of shots. He has at least 13 shot attempts in six of his last ten games and should eclipse that mark again tonight. At his price point, he’s worth consideration at shooting guard tonight.
Quincy Acy (FD: $4700, DK: $4400 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Quincy “Reggie Evans” Acy has been seeing extended action recently. Over his last four games, he is averaging 28 minutes and 25 fantasy points per game. He doesn’t have a very high usage rate, but he is a monster on the glass and a player that seems to get all of the loose balls. His price is a little higher than I’d like to pay, but with only three games on the schedule, he makes a decent value play tonight.
Miami at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -9, 197.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
| Miami | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.63 | Team Pace | 96.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 16 | Opp. Season | 9 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 22 | 11 | 26 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 10 | |
Miami
The Heat head to Portland to take on a very good defensive team in the Blazers. Vegas has the Heat listed as 9-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 197.5 points. While the Blazers do play at a relatively quick pace, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Blazers are ranked third in defensive efficiency and ninth in rebounding differential this season. Add in the fact that the Heat are only averaging 94.1 points per game this season, and we have a recipe for some awful fantasy chocolate chip cookies.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 27-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8900, DK: $9100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.6)
Wade’s production has not taken a hit with Chris Bosh back in the lineup. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in three of the four games with Bosh back. Wade has been very productive when on the floor this season and his usage rate is almost as high as anyone’s in the entire NBA. He does draw a tough matchup against Wesley Matthews (if he plays) and Nicolas Batum though, which leaves him as a secondary option tonight.
Chris Bosh (FD: $8100, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.6)
The Boshtrich is coming off of his best game since returning from his injury. He scored 26 points and grabbed 5 rebounds the other night against the Nets. His price is affordable across the industry, but unfortunately, he draws a very tough matchup tonight. Now that Chris Andersen is starting, Bosh plays power forward most of the time. That means he will match up against LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers have held opposing power forwards to the sixth fewest fantasy points this season.
Portland
The Blazers are large favorites tonight at home against the Heat. They may be without Wesley Matthews, however, as he is currently listed as questionable. We may not have an update on his status until well after the first game tips off. In terms of the Blazers’ matchup, this is a mediocre one. The Heat are not great defensively, but are the slowest paced team in the NBA. A slow pace of play is not what we like to see in the wonderful world of daily fantasy basketball.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 15-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $10100, DK: $10000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 29.1)
If you look at the season-long DvP rankings, you may think that the Heat are stingy against power forwards. While this was true earlier in the season, that hasn’t been the case with Chris Bosh starting at the four. The Heat were among the worst against centers when Bosh was starting at the five and have recently been among the worst against power forwards. Aldridge should be able to bully Bosh around en route to a big fantasy outing. He’s easily the top power forward of the night and is a recommended play in all league formats.
Chris Kaman (FD: $4600, DK: $4400 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 26)
Kaman finally got the start the other night against the Lakers and he did not disappoint with 30 fantasy points in only 27 minutes of action. Coach Terry Stotts said that Kaman would “likely” start again tonight, but that he only wants to play him 12-13 minutes per half. That puts Kaman in the 25-minute range, which is plenty of time to reach value. He has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute this season.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $9500, DK: $9800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26)
The point guard position will likely be the deciding factor in most leagues tonight. Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry, and Kemba Walker are all similarly priced and all have the potential to post a 50-fantasy-point outing. Lillard has been on an absolute tear over his last six games, averaging 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. His matchup against the Heat isn’t ideal though, which is why I may lean toward Lowry or Walker tonight.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.7)
It’s hard to believe that Batum has a usage rate of only 14.7 this season. That’s basically the lowest usage rate of any other active small forward in tonight’s slate of games. He does make up for his lack of shot attempts with his ability to fill up the stat sheet, though. And his price is at the lowest point that we have seen this season. Batum is worth a look tonight against the Heat, especially if Wesley Matthews is ruled out.