NBA Grind Down Thursday, November 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Chicago at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -2.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Chicago | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.33 | Team Pace | 97.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Season | 12 | 17 | 28 | 9 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 15 | 24 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are expected to have Derrick Rose back for tonight’s game, but at this point we can’t believe anything until we see a confirmed lineup. Jimmy Butler is also listed as probable, but he’s in no danger of missing the game. The Bulls are 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Raptors in Toronto. The total is set at 195 points. which is the second-lowest total on the board tonight. The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency while holding opponents to 96.4 points per game. Their biggest weakness this season has been rebounding. The Raptors are ranked 24th in rebounding differential, which makes the Bulls’ big men interesting targets.
Prime Plays
Pau Gasol – It’s taken little time for Gasol to gel with the Bulls. He has arguably been their best player this season, averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks per game. While the Raptors do rank first against PFs this season, Gasol is able to fill up the stat sheet, and he will likely post his sixth double-double of the season.
Joakim Noah – It seems as if Thibs is sticking to the 32-minute cap for Noah and Rose, at least for now. While that does cap his upside, Noah still has a high floor thanks to his ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. He has scored 34 and 39 fantasy points (FD scoring) in his last two games and draws a prime matchup against a Raptors team that is ranked 28th against centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler – Butler has yet to have a bad game this season. He has scored at least 24.3 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his first six games. The best part is that he is averaging 39 minutes per game.
Taj Gibson – Gibson is stuck behind Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, but is still averaging 29 minutes per game this season. His price is down and it’s a favorable matchup, as the Raptors do not rebound well.
Toronto
The Raptors sit atop the Eastern Conference standings at 7-1. They are coming off of a huge come-back win over the Magic. Tonight they are faced with a tough test as they take on a talented Bulls team that should be at full strength. Last season, the Bulls very similar to the Grizzlies in that they would slow the pace of the game down and beat you with defense. That hasn’t exactly been the case this season, as the Bulls are playing at a decent pace (95.3 possessions per 48 minutes). The Bulls are also only ranked 12th in defensive efficiency and have allowed an average of 98.4 points per game to their opponents.
Prime Plays
DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan leads the Raptors with a usage rate of 27.8, which is the 13th highest of any player in the NBA. He’s a terrific scorer and has become one of the most consistent fantasy options in that mid to elite tier of players. As mentioned above, the Bulls haven’t had that shut-down defense that we have seen in the past. They are ranked 17th against opposing SGs this season.
Kyle Lowry – Lowry has scored at least 39 fantasy points (FD scoring) in three of his last four games. He’s one of the best in the NBA at compiling stats. On the season, he is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists. He draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose, who still seems to be playing a bit tentatively.
Secondary Plays
Jonas Valanciunas / Amir Johnson – The biggest issue with the starting big men of the Raptors is their lack of playing time. Valanciunas and Johnson have both played less than 30 minutes each each of their last four games. This is a decent matchup though, as the Bulls are ranked 22nd in rebounding differential this season.
Sacramento at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Sacramento | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.41 | Team Pace | 93.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 6 | Opp. Season | 30 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 26 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 12 | |
Sacramento
The Kings looked great in the first quarter of their last game, but ended up blowing a huge lead to the Mavericks. They looked a lot more like the 2013-14 version of the Kings in that game. The Kings are still a much-improved team though and to their credit, they were without their starting PG in that loss. Darren Collison practiced yesterday and is expected to be in the starting lineup tonight. Ramon Sessions will head back to the bench and can be avoided for fantasy purposes. Tonight the Kings square off against the Grizzlies in a very tough matchup. The Grizzlies only average 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes and are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency this season. Tread lightly with the Kings tonight.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins – Marc Gasol is one of the best low-post defenders in the NBA, but if Cousins stays out of foul trouble (and that’s a big IF as he leads the league in fouls), he is matchup-proof. Cousins is too risky to use in cash games, but remains an excellent tournament play.
Rudy Gay – We saw what Paul Millsap did to his former team last night. Now it’s Rudy Gay’s turn. In three meetings against the Grizzlies last season, Gay averaged 22 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists per game, and you can argue that he is playing better this year than he has in his whole career.
Darren Collison – Collison has been as steady as they come in daily fantasy basketball. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points (FD scoring) in every game this season. He should have fresh legs for tonight’s game after sitting out the Kings’ last game due to a shoulder injury.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are typically a team that we hate to see on the schedule, because it’s hard to target players from the Grizzlies and it’s even more difficult to target players facing the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are 6.5-point favorites tonight in a game that features the lowest total on the board. This will be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies, but not by a huge margin, as the Kings are averaging 97.4 possessions per 48 minutes compared to 93.9 for the Grizzlies.The Kings are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency and lead the league in rebounding differential.
Prime Plays
Zach Randolph – Randolph is coming off of a disappointing 11-point, 10 rebound performance against the Lakers. Hopefully recency bias will lower his level of ownership a little tonight, as he’s my favorite play at PF (dollar for dollar). Randolph is averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds per game and draws a favorable matchup against Jason Thompson.
Courtney Lee – Lee is one of my favorite players to target in daily fantasy basketball because he is cheap and reliable. Typically you can find players that are either cheap or reliable, but not both. Lee has scored at least 19.8 fantasy points (FD scoring) in every game so far this season.
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol – Foul trouble is typically a concern for centers that are facing DeMarcus Cousins, but Gasol rarely gets into foul trouble. In fact, Gasol has only averaged 2.5 fouls per game since the start of last season. Gasol should put up another productive outing against the Kings, who are ranked 22nd against centers this season.
Mike Conley – Conley is one of those players that I’m never too high or too low on. He doesn’t have many bad games, but he doesn’t have many great games either. He’s a decent cash game play tonight against the Kings, who have surrendered the most fantasy points of any team to opposing PGs.
Philadelphia at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -13.5, 209 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Philadelphia | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.39 | Team Pace | 94.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Wroten | Hollis Thompson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 7 | Opp. Season | 3 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 10 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 28 | 20 | 22 | 2 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have yet to win a game, but there is plenty of buzz surrounding the season debut for Michael Carter-Williams, which will happen tonight against the Mavericks. Coach Scott Brown has yet to announce if he will start MCW or bring him off the bench, but his minutes will be limited for the first few games. It will be interesting to see if MCW and Tony Wroten can play together as both are ball-dominant. The Sixers are 13.5-point underdogs tonight against the Mavericks in a game that features the highest total of the night. The Mavericks have not been great defensively, and this is actually a decent matchup, as the starters should see big minutes even in a blowout.
Prime Plays
Tony Wroten – This may be the last game where Wroten will play the majority of the PG minutes. It’s been a fun ride while it has lasted, as Wroten has averaged 22 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists per game and he’s played well in some tough matchups. My favorite stat with Wroten is his usage rate of 30.2, which is second only to Kobe Bryant. Target Wroten for at least one more game, as the Mavericks are ranked 25th against PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Luc Mbah a Moute – Mbah a Moute is a serviceable value play tonight. Since entering the starting lineup, he has averaged 9 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists in close to 30 minutes per game. He’s still close to minimum salary and is a candidate to easily reach value if he gets another start tonight.
Dallas
The Mavericks have the best matchup on the board tonight, but it comes with an asterisk, as they are 13.5-point favorites against the worst team in the NBA. If you target any of the Mavericks players tonight, you have to live with the potential blowout. In terms of the matchup, it’s a fantasy gold mine. The Sixers are fast-paced (100.4 possessions per game), they are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, and they are ranked dead last in rebounding differential. If the Sixers can keep this one within striking distance, there will be plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Prime Plays
Monta Ellis – Ellis is at his best in the open floor, which bodes well for his matchup against the Sixers, who basically play the entire game in transition. Ellis has a team-high usage rate of 25.4 on the season and he’s averaging 17 points and 5 assists per game. On a night with a small slate, Ellis should be one of the most popular plays tonight.
Chandler Parsons – Parsons finally broke out of his shooting slump the other night. He hit five of his eleven attempts from the three-point line. That’s good news for his fantasy outlook, as he should see plenty of open looks tonight against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Buy low on Parsons and target him in both cash games and GPPs.
Devin Harris – There are few players that come off the bench that make it to the ‘prime plays’ list. Harris is one of the only Mavericks’ players whose minutes aren’t tied directly to the outcome of the game. In fact, you can argue that Harris will see extended playing time if it turns into a blowout. He is averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game and is in a great spot to reach and exceed that mark tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki – While I do love the matchup, Dirk would likely be the first starter to come out of the game if it got out of hand. He’s a veteran that doesn’t need to waste his minutes in a blowout. The matchup is there, but so is the risk that he will be pulled after three quarters.
Tyson Chandler – Chandler could easily be listed as a ‘prime play’ as well, but I didn’t want to include four Mavericks players in that list. The Sixers are ranked 25th against centers this season and are the worst rebounding team in the league.
Brooklyn at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9, 204 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Lopez
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Brooklyn | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.94 | Team Pace | 102.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Brook Lopez | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 14 | 4 | 24 | 3 | Opp. Season | 23 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 26 | 18 | 9 | 16 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets are in a tough spot tonight. Despite having a 14-point lead at halftime, the Nets lost by 8 to the Suns last night in Phoenix. They now have to face the Warriors in the second half of back-to-back road games. They are currently 9-point underdogs in this one. While the Warriors do play at a fast-pace, they are very stout defensively. The Warriors are ranked third in defensive efficiency and have held opponents to 97.4 points per game.
Prime Plays
Deron Williams – The one position that the Warriors have really struggled with this season is opposing PGs. For everything that Stephen Curry brings to the table offensively, he does lack a certain defensive prowess. The Warriors have given up the third-most fantasy points to PGs this season. If you are targeting anyone from the Nets, Williams is your best bet to reach value.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson – Johnson has played well this season. He’s averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists per game and has a team-high usage rate of 24.5. That said, he’s only a ‘secondary play’ tonight, as he’ll have his hands full with the likes of Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala tonight.
Golden State
The Warriors have lost two games in a row, but should bounce back tonight against the Nets at home. They are large favorites and the Nets are playing the second half of a back-to-back. In terms of the matchup, it’s fairly mediocre. The Nets only average 95.9 possessions per 48 minutes and are right around the league average in defensive efficiency and rebounding differential.
Prime Plays
Stephen Curry – Curry is coming off of his worst game of the season. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though, as Coach Popovich is one of the all-time great’s at putting together a game plan to stop opposing team’s best player. Curry should bounce back tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 23rd against PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green – Green continues to play well in David Lee’s absence. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four straight. He does draw a tough matchup against Kevin Garnett though, as he is still an elite defender even though he is well past his prime.
Klay Thompson – After missing one game with a hand injury, Thompson picked up where he left off with 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists against the Spurs. He’s a viable SG option tonight against the Nets.
Harrison Barnes – The sample size is obviously still small, but Barnes has been much better at home (16/6/2) than he has on the road (7/5/1). He is coming off of back-to-back productive outings and is a solid value play against the Nets.