NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
L.A. Clippers at Miami
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -3, 197.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Chalmers-Granger-Williams-Bosh
| L.A. Clippers | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 97.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.97 | Team Pace | 92.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Mario Chalmers | Danny Granger | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 29 | 22 | 2 | 22 | Opp. Season | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 28 | 7 | 12 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 26 | |
L.A. Clippers
There are only two games on the slate tonight, which means there are few fantasy options. It will also be a night with plenty of overlap in lineups. That said, we will still break down the games. The Clippers head to Miami to take on a very short-handed Heat team tonight. The Clippers are 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 197.5 points, which is pretty low for a Clippers game. The reason for the low total is that this will be a pace-down game for the Clippers. The Heat only average 92.7 possessions per 48 minutes and are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9400, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
Griffin is in a mini-slump right now. He has only topped 35 fantasy points (FD scoring) one time in his last five games. The good news is that his price has come down a little bit. While the Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs this season, it seems to be an aberration more than anything else. Griffin should be able to dominate the likes of Shawne Williams and Josh McRoberts. Griffin still owns one of the highest usage rates in the NBA at 31.3. With few options at PF tonight, use Griffin as a stud to anchor your lineups around.
Chris Paul (FD: $10100, DK: $9600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Paul is having another CP3-like season. He is averaging 17 points, 5 rebounds and 10 assists per game. He is often overlooked in the daily fantasy space, as his price is almost as high LeBron James and Anthony Davis. On such a short slate (with value galore), Paul is certainly play tonight. The Clippers are projected as the highest scoring team of the night at 100.25 points. Vegas expects the Heat to keep this game within striking distance, and I wouldn’t hesitate to pair Paul with Griffin or Jordan.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 9.8)
Jordan has been inconsistent this season. The inconsistency stems from two factors. One, Jordan can’t create his own shot (usage rate of 9.8). He relies solely on dunks, layups, and put-backs which leads to volatility in scoring. Second, Jordan often finds himself in foul trouble, which limits his minutes. He has recorded four or more fouls in four of his last 10 games. For these two reasons, I see him as a better tournament play than cash game play tonight.
Jamal Crawford (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
Crawford is one of the only bench players in the NBA that you can rely on night in and night out. He sees starter’s minutes (29 per game) and has an elite usage rate (28.2). Crawford has topped 30 fantasy points (FD scoring) in five of his last nine games and is priced fairly on both FD and DK.
Matt Barnes (FD: $3600, DK: $3600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Barnes typically wouldn’t be in play, but is worth a look on a night with only two games. Barnes has played at least 27 minutes in each of his last three games and he’s averaged 17 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Barnes is close to minimum salary and will allow you to get a stud or two into your lineup.
Miami
Dwyane Wade is expected to miss tonight’s game. Mario Chalmers will draw another start at SG. Luol Deng was listed as doubtful, but it appears that he went through shoot-around and is now looking like a game-time decision. If he is forced to sit, Danny Granger and James Ennis would see extended playing time. The Heat are expected to have Josh McRoberts back tonight, which may cut into the minutes of Shawne Williams.
In terms of the matchup, this is a decent one to exploit. The Clippers play at a relatively fast pace (97 possessions per 48 minutes), and they are giving up an average of 101.4 points per game to their opponents. Vegas is expecting this to be a close game, as the Clippers are only 3-point favorites.
Elite Plays
Mario Chalmers (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23)
With Dwyane Wade out again, Chalmers immediately becomes one of the top plays of the night. Over his last three starts with Wade out, Chalmers has averaged 21 points, 2 rebounds and 7 assists in 36 minutes per game. His price is still relatively cheap on both FD and DK and he should have one of the highest levels of ownership. Chalmers has a high usage rate and a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who are ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing SGs.
Chris Bosh (FD: $8800, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
When Dwyane Wade was first ruled out a few games ago, Bosh was the likely candidate to step up and pick up some of that production. So far, that hasn’t been the case. In the last three games without Wade, Bosh is only averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists per game. All three stats are lower than his season averages. I’m not jumping ship yet though. The problem appears to be a shooting slump, as Bosh is shooting 29% from the floor over that stretch. He should bounce out of it tonight against DeAndre Jordan, who can have trouble defending centers that stretch the floor.
Secondary Plays
Norris Cole (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Cole has played well in Wade’s absence. In those three games, he has posted 28, 17, and 20 fantasy points (FD scoring). The issue with Cole is that he rarely plays over 30 minutes and he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard, which explains his fairly low usage rate of 17.7.
Shawne Williams (FD: $4600, DK: $4800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Williams’ fantasy value doesn’t hinge on the status of Wade, but rather on the status of Josh McRoberts. We saw his minutes and production take a hit with McRoberts being active. While he should still be a popular value play tonight, the presence of McRoberts takes him down a peg, as he may see close to 25 minutes, rather than 30.
James Ennis (FD: $3800, DK: $3000 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 12.3)
This pick hinges on the health of Luol Deng. If Deng is ruled out for tonight’s game, Ennis would make a good value play at close to minimum salary. Ennis played 36 minutes and scored 25 fantasy points in Deng’s absence the other night.
Chicago at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -1, 196 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gibson-Noah
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Chicago | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.38 | Team Pace | 96.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Taj Gibson | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 10 | Opp. Season | 11 | 22 | 27 | 9 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 30 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 18 | |
Chicago
As of last night, it was looking like Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol were both headed for game-time decisions. Luckily, after shoot-around, the Bulls have already ruled them both out for tonight’s game against the Kings. Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich will start in their absence, but Jimmy Butler should also see a small boost, as he’s become one of the go-to players in this offense. Tonight the Bulls are 1-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 196 points. In terms of the matchup, it’s average at best. The Kings do play at a fairly quick pace (96.7 possessions per 48 minutes), but they are ranked 16th in defensive efficiency and 1st in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $7700, DK: $7600 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Butler doesn’t seem to have any bad games. As his price has gone up, I’ve slowly decided to fade him, which hasn’t been a wise decision. I keep expecting to regress to last year’s numbers, but it’s becoming clearer and clearer that he is a different player this season. Butler is averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists per game. He has also topped 40 fantasy points in three straight games. Butler is getting expensive, but is the top SG on the board with Dwyane Wade out.
Joakim Noah (FD: $8000, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Noah has really picked up his play over the last five games. During that stretch, he has averaged 10 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists in 33 minutes per game. Noah will have his hands full with DeMarcus Cousins, but Noah is typically good at staying out of foul trouble. With the news that Pau Gasol is out for tonight’s game, Noah may be the top play at center when you factor in salaries.
Taj Gibson (FD: $5900, DK: $5300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Gibson is a player that is a must-start when you know he is going to get starter’s minutes. He’s averaging just under one fantasy point per minute this season and will get the start at PF tonight. Gibson is as close to a must-play as you are going to find. Lock him into all of your lineups tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kirk Hinrich (FD: $4500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Hinrich’s value hinges on the health of Derrick Rose, who has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. With Rose out, Hinrich has posted 27 fantasy points (FD scoring) in back-to-back games. He should see 30+ minutes of action tonight and is a terrific value play at PG.
Sacramento
Rudy Gay is questionable for tonight’s game against the Bulls. He played through an Achilles injury on Tuesday, but he didn’t look great. We’ll see if the Kings decide to sit him out tonight. If he does sit, that would give a boost to DeMarcus Cousins, Ben McLemore, and Omri Casspi. Tonight the Kings square off against the Bulls, who don’t have the intimidating defense that they have had in year’s past. The Bulls are playing at a slightly quicker pace this season and have seen a drop in defense and rebounding.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10000, DK: $10200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 32.9)
Cousins can take over games. The issue is that it’s hard to predict which ones he is going to take over. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls sets up well for him though, as the Bulls are ranked 22nd in rebounding differential and 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers. Cousins’ usage rate of 32.9 is the highest of any center in the NBA. I have him ranked as the top overall fantasy option tonight.
Darren Collison (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Collison has been a go-to player in cash games. He rarely has bad fantasy outings and is always priced fairly. On the season, he is averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals per game. He should be able to replicate a stat line similar to that tonight against the Bulls, who have been pretty average at defending PGs this season (11th in fantasy points allowed).
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8200, DK: $8000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 27)
If Gay is in the lineup tonight, he is in play because there are really no other elite options at SF. He would also be in play thanks to a favorable matchup against Mike Dunleavy and the Bulls, who are ranked 27th against opposing SFs this season.