NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Minnesota at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -14, 207.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Muhammad-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miller-James-Love-Varejao
| Minnesota | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.42 | Team Pace | 94.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Shabazz Muhammad | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 25 | 9 | 22 | 14 | Opp. Season | 21 | 29 | 26 | 15 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 28 | 14 | 2 | 30 | |
Minnesota
Christmas has come early! The NBA has an 11-game slate on tap for tonight Santa has provided us with some monster prize pools.
The first game of the night may very well be the ugliest. The T-Wolves travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. Vegas has the T-Wolves listed as 14-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 207 points. Anytime there is a double-digit favorite on the schedule, we have to at least take notice. There is nothing worse than seeing your players sitting the entire fourth quarter of a blowout. That said, the T-Wolves draws a favorable matchup tonight. The Cavaliers are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 99.4 points per game.
Elite Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Muhammad has been terrific since the Corey Brewer trade. In fact, he’s been terrific over the last couple of weeks. He has scored at least 24 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. His price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he will only be listed at this price for a limited time. Make sure to take advantage while you can. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Muhammad should still see starter’s minutes. He draws a favorable matchup against Mike Miller and the Cavaliers, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards.
Secondary Plays
None
Cleveland
The Cavaliers have won two in a row and seven of their last ten games. They should easily pick up another win against a very young T-Wolves lineup. The Cavaliers are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is one of the highest team totals on the board tonight. While this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, it could provide some great fantasy options if the T-Wolves are able to keep this game close. On the season, the T-Wolves are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 108.4 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10300, DK: $11600 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 30.6)
The only thing holding King James back from being an elite play tonight is the potential blowout. Even factoring that in, James is a terrific play on FanDuel at a price of only $10,300. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four of his last six games and should be able to get wherever he wants on the floor tonight against the T-Wolves. On the season, the T-Wolves are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.
Kyrie Irving (FD: $7600, DK: $9300 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Irving is a FanDuel-specific play. Using a 5x value system, Irving only needs to score 38 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He is certainly capable of that, as he is averaging 33.4 fantasy points per game this season. Irving makes a terrific tournament play tonight against the T-Wolves, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to point guards. He will be a low-owned tournament play that offers tremendous upside for the price.
New Orleans at Indiana
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -1.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| New Orleans | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.09 | Team Pace | 94.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 28 | Opp. Season | 22 | 10 | 30 | 4 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 8 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 25 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans are clinging on to the eighth seed in the Western Conference, but there are four teams that are hot on their trail. Tonight they travel to Indiana to take on the slow-Paced’ers. The Pacers are only averaging 94.9 possessions per game this season and have held their opponents to an average of 96.5 points per game. This game has a low total of only 193 points, but it’s expected to be competitive.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11500, DK: $11700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Davis is not listed as an elite play for two reasons. First, is his matchup. David West is one of the better low post defenders in the NBA and the Pacers play at a snail’s pace. Second, is his price tag. There are a few value plays that make it possible to fit Davis into your lineups, but if I’m paying a premium for a player, I want it to be in a favorable matchup. The Pacers have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Jrue Holiday (FD: $7800, DK: $8600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
The one position that the Pacers have really struggled to defend this season is the point guard position. The Pacers are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Holiday has scored at least 34 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He’s done it quietly too, as no one seems to have noticed. His usage rate isn’t as high as Tyreke Evans, but it’s still respectable at 22.2 this season.
Indiana
The Pacers have said that they would not welcome Lance Stepheson back, but at this point, they should be exploring all of their options. They are 9-19 on the season and have lost eight of their last ten games. Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans is a favorable one. Despite having an intimidating front-court, the Pelicans are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 102.4 points per game to their opponents.
Injury Note: George Hill will make his season debut tonight. He will come off the bench and play limited minutes.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6600, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
On paper, this is not a great matchup for West. Anthony Davis is an elite defender. He also draws a lot of fouls. That said, West is one of the few players in the NBA that can play up to his competition. West has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last six games and his price has not moved on either FanDuel or DraftKings. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could see upwards of 35 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. He is a sneaky play tonight in both cash games and GPPs.
C.J. Watson (FD: $4100, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
George Hill will make his season debut tonight, but he’s expected to come off the bench and see limited minutes. I expect him to cut into Donald Sloan’s minutes more than Watson’s. Watson is sitting at a bargain-bin price of $4,100 on FanDuel tonight, meaning he only needs to score around 20 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that, as he is averaging 20 fantasy points per game this season.
Boston at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Orlando -2.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
| Boston | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.96 | Team Pace | 94.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 29 | Opp. Season | 20 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 15 | 20 | 11 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 20 | |
Boston
It’s always good for fantasy basketball when two bad teams that don’t play defense face each other. Vegas has the Celtics listed as 2.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 200.5 points. On the season, the Magic are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential. This game should be played with a very quick pace and I’m expecting this one to come down to the wire.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeff Green (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
I want to heavily target the Celtics tonight, but there really aren’t any reliable fantasy options, even in a favorable matchup against the Magic. Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, and Kelly Olynyk are all playing less than 30 minutes per game, which makes it tough to rely on them in cash games. Green’s minutes are assured though. His price is down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him a very interesting play at small forward. There are better options for cash games, but he offers great upside as a tournament play.
Marcus Smart (FD: $4100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 17)
Smart got his first career start the other night against the Heat. Unfortunately, he didn’t play all that well, finishing with only 3 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists. The Celtics front office is really high on Smart though and I fully expect to see him put up some big fantasy outings here soon. He should draw another start at point guard tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
Orlando
The Magic have lost four games in a row and are now 10-20 on the season. Coach Jacque Vaughn decided to insert Elfrid Payton and Kyle O’Quinn into the starting lineup last game and it appears that he’s going to stick with it for tonight’s game against the Celtics. Both players see a major fantasy boost in the starting lineup. While the Celtics are not going to play at the same pace as they did with Rajon Rondo, they still own a below average defense. The Magic’s team total is set at 101.5 points, which is considerably higher than their season average of 93.6.
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8600, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25)
Vucevic is coming off of a monster fantasy performance against the Sixers. He finished the game with 19 points, 17 rebounds, and 4 assists. Tonight he faces an under-sized Celtics front-court that is giving up 10.2 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents. Vucevic put up 18 points and 13 rebounds against the Celtics the last time these teams met. I’m expecting a similar stat line from him tonight.
Kyle O’Quinn (FD: $4700, DK: $4300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
O’Quinn has been a very productive fantasy player this season, the issue has been his playing time. Now that he has been inserted into the starting lineup, we can count on 25+ minutes per game from him. He played well in his start the other night, scoring 26 fantasy points against the Sixers. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton (FD: $4600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
Payton didn’t do much in his start the other night, but he played 35 minutes. If he is going to see that kind of playing time moving forward, he will easily reach and exceed value at his current price point. With all of the other options at point guard tonight, Payton is going to fly under the radar. Don’t be afraid to target him in tournaments, as the Celtics are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to point guards.
Chicago at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -3, 197 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
| Chicago | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.69 | Team Pace | 95.67 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Season | 28 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 17 | 27 | |
Chicago
The Bulls picked up a big win over the Raptors at home last night. They’ll look for their fourth win in a row tonight against the Wizards, who are a game and a half ahead of them in the standings. Vegas has the Bulls listed as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 197 points. Even though the Bulls got into a shootout last night, the total looks a little high. Both of these teams play at an average pace and both own top ten defenses. The Wizards have held their opponents to an average of 97.1 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Jimmy “Buckets” aka Jimmy “Minutes” aka Jimmy “DraftKings” put up another monster stat line last night. He finished with 27 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 blocks. He dropped a 60-burger on DraftKings, yet he’s still listed at only $7,700 tonight. Butler is in play on FanDuel, but I’m not sure I’m paying that price for him, especially when you can still have exposure to him by taking him on DraftKings. His matchup against the Wizards isn’t ideal, but he has played well in tough matchups all season.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Gasol is quietly averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game. I say quietly because his level of ownership is always low. He only played 29 minutes last night so he should have fresh legs for tonight’s game against the Wizards. Gasol is a safe cash game play with a high floor tonight against Kris “Mr. Kardashian” Humphries.
Washington
The Wizards have been terrific at home this season. They are 13-3 at the Verizon Center. Tonight they host the Bulls in a game that features two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls don’t have a shut down defense this season, but they still play good team defense. They are ranked 10th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 99.2 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9800, DK: $10100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
You may get tired of reading the same blurb about John Wall every time he is playing at home, but you are just going to have to deal with it. Wall is a good fantasy option on the road and a great fantasy option at home. On the season, he is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists, and 2 steals per game at the Verizon Center. While Derrick Rose is also a very athletic point guard, he has not been great defensively this season. The Bulls have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. Wall should fill up the stat sheet once again.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Beal provides a high ceiling, but he also has a low floor. Over his last ten games, his fantasy production has ranged from 8 to 43 fantasy points. His inconsistency has kept his price at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s an interesting tournament play tonight against the Bulls.
L.A. Clippers at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -2, 205 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Schroder-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| L.A. Clippers | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 26 | 16 | 11 | 7 | Opp. Season | 1 | 20 | 10 | 14 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 24 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 20 | 9 | 22 | 17 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Spurs last night. They now travel to Atlanta to take on the surprising Hawks. Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high-scoring game, which is typically a great recipe for fantasy production. On the season, the Hawks are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. Chris Paul draws a tough matchup against Jeff Teague. With all of the other options at point guard, I will likely be fading CP3 tonight.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $10200, DK: $11000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 30.5)
Over his last five games, Griffin is averaging 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He has incredible upside and should play well in an uptemo game against the Hawks. Paul Millsap is a solid defender, but he lacks size and Griffin can match him in athleticism. As mentioned above, the Hawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. While Anthony Davis is on the schedule, I’d rather take a discount and target Griffin against the Hawks.
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta
The Hawks are 20-7 to start the season. They have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NBA this year. They have an impressive 12-2 record at home and will look for a big win over the Clippers tonight. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 2-point favorites in a game that features a total of 205 points. The Clippers are a fast-paced team with an average defense. That combination has led to the Clippers giving up an average of 101.1 points per game to their opponents.
Injury Note: Jeff Teague is probable for tonight’s game. This ends the run for Dennis Schroder as a value play.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7900, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Millsap has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He is coming off of a terrific outing against the Mavericks last night and should have similar success tonight if he can manage to stay out of foul trouble. The Clippers have been average against opposing power forwards this season and Millsap has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet.