NBA Grind Down Tuesday, December 23rd - Page Two
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Philadelphia at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -7.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Chalmers-Deng-Williams-Andersen
| Philadelphia | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190.5 |  | Vegas Total | 190.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.50 | Team Proj. | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.54 | Team Pace | 91.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 27 | 23 | 3 | 29 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers are looking for their first winning streak of the season. They picked up their third win against the Magic the other night and will look to make it back-to-back wins tonight against the Heat. Vegas sees this as an uphill climb though. The Sixers are 7.5-point underdogs in a game that has a very low total. The Heat are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, averaging only 91.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
Elite Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
In five starts this season, Covington is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game. He has been a consistent fantasy option over the last few weeks and should be in line for another solid outing tonight against the Heat. The matchup looks tough on paper, but Covington contributes in multiple areas of the stat sheet. At his price, he’s one of the top small forwards on FanDuel and one of the top power forwards on DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8900, DK: $9400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
I miss the days when MCW was priced under $8,000. While I don’t recommend him as a cash game play tonight, his immense upside makes him a viable tournament option tonight against the Heat. MCW has scored at least 44 fantasy points in four of his last ten games. The Sixers will need a big game from him if they want to get their first set of back-to-back wins this season.
Miami
The Heat may be without both Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade tonight. Bosh has already been ruled out, while Wade is listed as questionable. He will likely be a game-time decision. Luckily, this game starts at 7:30 ET so we should know his status before lineups lock. The Heat draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers. Not only are the Sixers one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, but they are also giving up an average of 103.3 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Mario Chalmers (FD: $5600, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
This pick hinges on the health of Dwyane Wade. If Wade plays tonight, Chalmers will likely head back to the bench. If Wade it out, Chalmers will be in the starting lineup and will be the primary ball-handler in the Heat’s offense. Chalmers has shown that he has 40 fantasy point type of upside when given the chance to start. Check the injury news closer to tip-off and plug Chalmers in as a great value play if Dwyane Wade is forced to sit out again tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Denver at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2, 199 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Denver | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.00 | Vegas Sprd | -2.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.75 | Team Pace | 94.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 18 | 18 | 24 | 5 | Opp. Season | 8 | 14 | 19 | 25 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 3 | 25 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 27 | 9 | |
Denver
The Nuggets were blown out by the Hornets last night. They will now play the second half of a back-to-back against the Nets in Brooklyn. Vegas has the Nuggets listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 199 points. The Nets have been average defensively this season. They are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency and have given up an average of 98.5 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8500, DK: $9500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21)
Lawson is a FanDuel-specific play tonight. He’s $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. He is having a terrific season for the Nuggets, averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. While the Nuggets did play last night, the starters all saw limited minutes in a blowout loss to the Hornets. Lawson should bounce back nicely in tonight’s game against the Nets, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5800, DK: $5400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Chandler’s price has come way down on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using a 5x value system, he needs to score 27+ fantasy points to reach value tonight. He’s certainly capable of that and much more. Chandler has topped that mark in four of his last ten games. Chandler should also see a small fantasy boost with Danilo Gallinari out for the foreseeable future.
Brooklyn
The Nets got off to a fast start this season, but have quickly fallen in the Eastern Conference standings. Now there are trade rumors about quite a few of the Nets players. The good news is that they are facing the Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets make average offenses look great, as their play on the defensive end of the floor is non-existent. On the season, the Nuggets are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 104.1 points per game.
Injury Note: Deron Williams is questionable for tonight’s game. Given his injury history, don’t be surprised if the Nets hold him out. If he does miss tonight’s game, Jarrett Jack would draw another start in his place.
Elite Plays
Mason Plumlee (FD: $6400, DK: $6900 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
I keep waiting for Plumlee to come crashing back down to Earth, but it hasn’t happened yet and there is no reason to think it will happen tonight. Plumlee has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last six games. Brook Lopez is close to returning, but it doesn’t sound like it will be tonight. If that’s the case, Plumlee will draw another start and continue to see all of the minutes he can handle. Even though his price has come up, Plumlee is one of the top plays at center tonight. The Nuggets have been awful defending the post again this season.
Jarrett Jack (FD: $4900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
This pick hinges on the health of Deron Williams. If Williams is forced to sit out, Jack would become the top value play on the board tonight. In his start on Sunday, Jack finished with 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists. The Nuggets have been stingy against point guards this season, but the value would be too good to pass up. Check the injury news closer to tipoff and use Jack as a classic injury plug and play if Williams is ruled out.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6700, DK: $6700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Johnson has had a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals per game. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings at only $6,700. He would also see a small boost if Deron Williams is ruled out, as he would become the go-to option offensively.
Charlotte at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6, 197.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Sanders
| Charlotte | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.75 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.13 | Team Pace | 96.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 17 | 27 | 8 | 24 | Opp. Season | 29 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 24 | 16 | 15 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have won three games in a row, all with Lance Stephenson sitting on the sidelines. Maybe there is some credence to the idea that he is hindering the team’s chemistry. The Hornets will look for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. The Bucks play at a very quick pace and have an average defense. On the season, the Bucks are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency and 27th in rebounding differential.
Injury Note: Al Jefferson tweaked his groin injury last night, but was able to return to the game. He is expected to play tonight.
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Walker was well on his way to another monster fantasy outing last night until the Nuggets forgot to show up in the third quarter. Walker still finished with 32 fantasy points in only 30 minutes of action. He has really seen an uptick in production with Lance Stephenson out of the lineup. That should continue tonight against Brandon Knight and the Bucks, who are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8700, DK: $9000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Jefferson would be an elite play if it wasn’t for that nagging groin injury. It’s always risky targeting players that are dealing with injuries. That said, Jefferson draws a terrific matchup against the Bucks, who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season. If you don’t mind taking a few chances here and there, Jefferson could be a risk that pays off handsomely tonight.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $3900, DK: $4200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
The masses were on Henderson last night. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much against the Nuggets. The good news is that recency bias will play a huge factor in his ownership level tonight. Most people will avoid him after his subpar fantasy outing last night. That’s more than fine with me, as Henderson is still an excellent value play that is filling in for the injured Lance Stephenson.
Milwaukee
If you were to tell me the two records of these teams at the beginning of the season, I wouldn’t have believed you. The Hornets are 9-19 while the Bucks are 14-14. I’m still predicting the Hornets to finish higher in the standings that the Bucks though. For tonight, Vegas has the Bucks listed as 6-point favorites in this fantasy-friendly matchup. The Hornets are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 100.2 points per game.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
As usual, Knight is the only Bucks’ player that I am going to have any exposure to tonight. He is their most consistent fantasy option and he also has more upside than any other player on his team. Knight is very affordable tonight at $6,800 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using a 5x value system, he only needs to score 34 fantasy points to reach value. He’s more than capable of that, as he is averaging 30.5 fantasy points per game this season. Knight also draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Hornets are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5.5, 200 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Wright-Aldridge-Freeland
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
| Portland | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.13 | Team Pace | 95.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Dorell Wright | Meyers Leonard | Joel Freeland | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 10 | Opp. Season | 6 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 24 | 16 | 26 | 7 | |
Portland
The Blazers are looking to bounce back after getting walloped by the beard last night. Vegas has the Blazers listed as 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Thunder. With a line that high, Vegas may be expecting LaMarcus Aldridge to sit out again tonight. This is a tough matchup for the Blazers. The Thunder are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to 95.2 points per game.
Injury Note: Nicolas Batum has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Thunder. LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $9000, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
With Batum out and Aldridge questionable, this may be the Damian Lillard show tonight. Lillard is averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game this season. If the Blazers want to have any chance of beating the Thunder in OKC, they are going to need a monster game from Lillard. His usage could be off the charts in tonight’s game, making him an excellent tournament play.
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Matthews is still listed as his bargain-bin price of $5,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He only needs 27+ fantasy points to reach value tonight. With Nicolas Batum out, Matthews may see a slight uptick in both minutes and production. He offers great value at his price point tonight.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder host the Blazers tonight in a battle between two talented Western Conference teams. The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 200 points. They didn’t show it last night, but the Blazers have been stout defensively this season. They are ranked third in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 96.7 points per game.
Injury Note: Kevin Durant has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Perry Jones will draw another start at small forward.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11200, DK: $11900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 38.2)
With Kevin Durant out again, Westbrook is the top overall fantasy option tonight (apologies to Anthony Davis). Westbrook has been on an absolute tear recently, scoring at least 44 fantasy points in each of his last eight games. When you can target a superstar that has a floor of 44 fantasy points, you should absolutely take advantage of it. Westbrook has the highest usage rate of any player in the NBA. Ignore the tough matchup against the Blazers on paper, and get Westbrook into your lineups tonight.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Ibaka would see a nice fantasy boost tonight if LaMarcus Aldridge is ruled out. If he can’t suit up, Ibaka will match up against the likes of Meyers Leonard and Joel Freeland. That will allow Ibaka to cheat defensively. His block totals have been way up over his last ten games and he could throw another block party tonight against the Blazers.
Dallas at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -1.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Dallas | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.17 | Team Pace | 98.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 30 | Opp. Season | 24 | 15 | 21 | 7 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 22 | 15 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 1 | 26 | 15 | 10 | |
Dallas
Before everyone overreacts about the Mavericks’ loss at home last night, realize that it was only their second game playing with Rajon Rondo. They were also facing a very talented Hawks team. The Mavericks are going to take some time to gel, but they are a top four team in the West. I wouldn’t be surprised if they bounced back with a big win over the Suns tonight. This game features one of the highest totals on the board and the Mavericks’ team total is set at 106 points. Monta Ellis is a popular pick among fantasy experts tonight, but I’m going to fade him again tonight. I’d rather target Klay Thompson against the Lakers.
Elite Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $6900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Chandler has scored at least 28 fantasy points in each of his last four games and he has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games. Both of which bode well for him tonight, as the Mavericks take on the Suns, who just so happened to be ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to centers this season. Chandler should be a beast on the glass tonight and should get plenty of open looks around the rim with the Mavericks’ new, pass-first point guard Rajon Rondo. I’m going to predict at least 15 points and at least 15 rebounds for Chandler tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
The Mavericks have held Dirk out of back-to-backs a couple of times this season, but it’s usually against inferior opponents. Dirk should be in the lineup tonight against the Suns. Once again, Dirk is listed at a bargain-bin price on DraftKings. He only needs to score 31.5 fantasy points to reach value tonight. I’ll take my chances there, as this game should be one of the highest scoring games of the evening.
Phoenix
The Suns host the Mavericks who will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back. This should be one of the fastest-paced games of the night. Vegas has the Suns listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 213.5 points. On the season, the Mavericks are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 102.5 points per game to their opponents. The issue with the Suns is that they have a very well-rounded offense and a great bench. They can be tough to predict on a nightly basis.
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Morris’ price across the industry has me salivating. The best part is that he will likely have a fairly low level of ownership tonight thanks to his inconsistent play. There are few players that are listed under $7,000 that has 40 fantasy point upside and Morris is one of them. In his first meeting against the Mavericks this season, Morris put up 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists. He should be able to replicate that tonight.
Secondary Plays
None