NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Author’s Note: I want to thank Team RG for covering my content for me the last few days. The lovely Mrs. Noto surprised me with a trip to Denver to see the Broncos game and it was an awesome little vacation. Second, huge congrats to JeffelJefe (who wrote the Grind Down yesterday), as he took home a seat to FanDuel’s Playboy Basketball Championship last night. And finally, I’ve added an ‘opponent breakdown’ for each team. Let me know what you think and if there is anything else that you would like to see added to the Grind Down.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Detroit at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Detroit -1, 194.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
| Detroit | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 96.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.23 | Team Pace | 94.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 30 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 8 | 30 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 1 | |
Detroit
The Pistons head to Orlando to take on the Magic in what is expected to be a very competitive game. Vegas has the Pistons listed as 1-point favorites in a game that features a total of 194 points. The Magic rank near the league average in all the important team statistics: pace of play, defensive efficiency, and points allowed per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 13-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $6400, DK: $7300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Monroe’s price on FanDuel is still too low, making him a terrific play tonight against the Magic. In the first two games post-Josh Smith, Monroe has scored 46 and 24 fantasy points. His minutes and production are both going to see an uptick with Smith out of the lineup. Tonight Monroe will match up against the much smaller Kyle O’Quinn. Why pay up for Andre Drummond tonight when you can take Monroe at a much cheaper price point?
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Jennings is coming off of a strong four-game stretch, averaging 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. His recent level of play has him back on my fantasy radar. He’s still too risky for me to trust in cash games (especially on a full slate), but he offers great upside at his price point. He also draws a very favorable matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Orlando
The Magic are looking for their third win in a row tonight. They currently sit two games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have a good chance of picking up the win as they host the 7-23 Pistons. Detroit have really improved their pace since earlier in the season and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 100.7 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 7-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
I hesitate recommending Oladipo as an elite play, but his price on both FanDuel and DraftKings is just too appealing. Oladipo has actually seen an increase in his production with Elfrid Payton in the starting lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He needs around 30 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he can easily accomplish against the Pistons.
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris (FD: $7100, DK: $7300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
I’m concerned about the big men of the Magic tonight. Nikola Vucevic has to deal with Andre Drummond and Kyle O’Quinn has not seen enough playing time over the last few games. I will be targeting the wing players of the Magic instead. Harris is having a terrific season, averaging 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has also scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last ten games.
Cleveland at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miller-James-Love-Thompson
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Cleveland | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.47 | Team Pace | 95.99 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 12 | Opp. Season | 6 | 25 | 16 | 19 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 28 | 9 | 12 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 26 | 28 | 8 | 17 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are 5-5 in their last ten games and there are already rumors that LeBron James is going to opt out of his contract this summer. We are too far out to speculate on that, but there are some concerns with this Cavs’ team that just can’t seem to mesh. Tonight the Cavs head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks who have great team chemistry. The Cavs are 3.5-point underdogs in this game that features a total of 203.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 22-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10500, DK: $11700 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
James is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but as long as he is in the lineup, he will get the green light from me. Once again, LeBron is much cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. At a price of only $10,500, he is an elite play tonight against the Hawks in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. LeBron may not hit the 5x salary mark, but he has scored at least 39 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. He makes a terrific anchor for your cash game lineups, as the Hawks are right around the league average in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 14.5)
In three starts this season, Thompson has averaged 13 points and 11 rebounds per game. He doesn’t have a particularly high usage in this offense, but he does get an easy bucket here and there. He’s always been a terrific rebounder and as shown above, the Hawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Thompson is a safe bet for 20+ fantasy points tonight, with the potential to top 30.
Atlanta
The Hawks have won eight of their last ten games and currently sit in the second seed in the Eastern Conference. They have been one of the better stories early in the season. Tonight they host the Cavaliers in a game that is expected to be highly competitive. The Hawks are 3.5-point favorites and have a team total set at 103.5 points. The issue with the Hawks tonight isn’t the matchup, but the fact that they are such a well-balanced team offensively.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 18-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8100, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Kevin Love is an excellent offensive player. He’s also one of the best rebounders in the game. The one part of his game that needs to improve is his defense. The Cavaliers have given up the 11th most fantasy points per game to power forwards this season. Millsap has faced the Cavs twice this season and while he hasn’t put up gaudy numbers (15 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists per game), he only averaged 25 minutes in those two meetings. He should see closer to 35 minutes of action tonight.
Phoenix at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -2, 211 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
| Phoenix | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.5 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.73 | Team Pace | 95.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 12 | 28 | 10 | 10 | Opp. Season | 14 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 4 | |
Phoenix
After going on a little slide, the Suns have now won their last six games. They will look for their seventh win in a row tonight against the Pelicans in a game that has one of the highest totals on the board tonight. Despite having an intimidating frontcourt, the Pelicans are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up well over 100 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 15-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 102
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8200, DK: $9200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24)
Bledsoe is quietly establishing himself as one of the best point/shooting guards in the NBA. He is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch, averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals per game. Tonight he will match up against Tyreke Evans and the Pelicans, who have struggled against shooting guards recently. This game has a total of 211 points and Bledsoe should flourish in transition. He’s a terrific play on FanDuel at a price of only $8,200.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6000, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
I’m always intrigued by the upside that Morris provides. Even though he hasn’t topped 30 fantasy points in any of his last six games, he’s certainly capable of it. His price is extremely affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. He’s not a recommended cash game play, but it could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him in tournaments.
New Orleans
The Pelicans square off against the Suns at home tonight. You know what that means? We get another game to exploit the very generous statistician employed by the Pelicans. This is a very favorable matchup for New Orleans. The Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and have given up an average of 103.7 points per game. The Pelicans’ team total is set at 106.5 points tonight, which is a full five points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 18-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11500, DK: $11800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Davis is having a monster season. He is averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He’s the only player that is even close to averaging double-digit fantasy points on blocks and steals alone. He has scored at least 53 fantasy points in three of his last four games and makes an excellent anchor for cash games tonight. The Suns have been stingy against power forwards this season but are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed over the last seven days. Davis is the top overall play on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7300, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Evans’ splits at home are markedly better than they are on the road. In 13 home games this season, Evans is averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he will draw a favorable matchup against the much smaller Eric Bledsoe. Evans is one of the best in the NBA at getting into the paint and finishing at the rim. He should have no problems getting to the rim tonight against the Suns, who lack an elite shot blocker.
Brooklyn at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -11.5, 196 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Brooklyn | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.63 | Team Pace | 95.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 24 | Opp. Season | 27 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 29 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 23 | |
Brooklyn
Even with the trade rumors floating around, the Nets have won six of their last ten games. They’ve done most of it without their two best players, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. Vegas isn’t buying the Nets’ recent level of play, though, as they have them listed as 11-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls. This isn’t the best matchup for fantasy production, as the Bulls are solid defensively and are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 22-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $5600, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Jack is the only Nets player on my fantasy radar tonight. Mason Plumlee has been playing well, but his price has caught up to his recent level of production. Also, Joe Johnson will likely lock horns with Jimmy Butler, who is an elite defender on the perimeter. Jack, on the other hand, draws a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose. The Bulls have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season. Even with Deron Williams back from injury, Jack’s playing time does not appear to be in jeopardy. He has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last six games, averaging 29 fantasy points per game during that stretch.
Secondary Plays
None
Chicago
The Bulls are quietly climbing up the standings in the Eastern Conference. They have won nine of their last ten games and are currently only two games out of the number one seed. Tonight they host the Nets, who present a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Bulls. New Jersey is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and they have allowed 99.1 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 14-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Gasol’s fantasy value obviously goes up when either Joakim Noah or Taj Gibson is out, but he’s still a very reliable fantasy option even when all of the Bulls’ bigs are healthy. On the season, he is averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. At his price point, he’s an excellent option for cash games tonight.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9300, DK: $8700 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Unfortunately, Butler is no longer listed at a bargain-bin special on DraftKings. His price on both sites is up over $8,500, which is where it should be. Butler is having a monster season, averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and should have another solid fantasy outing tonight against the Nets.
San Antonio at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -2, 194 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| San Antonio | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.40 | Team Pace | 93.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Marco Belinelli | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 26 | 15 | 14 | 1 | Opp. Season | 15 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 10 | 14 | 25 | 16 | |
San Antonio
The last time these two teams met, the Spurs made a huge comeback and eventually lost in a triple-overtime battle against the Grizzlies. If you are just looking at splits for the season, make sure to factor in the fact that the game went to triple-overtime. Vegas is expecting a much lower scoring game this time around. The Spurs are 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of only 194 points. Both of these teams are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency. With a full slate on tap tonight, I will have limited exposure to players from this game.
Injury Note: Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard have both been ruled out of tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 22-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $9100, DK: $9000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Duncan continues to turn back the clock. He’s having a terrific season, averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He does get a few nights off here and there, but for the most part, when he is in the starting lineup, he is seeing starter’s minutes. Duncan has scored at least 37 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his hefty price tag.
Memphis
The Grizzlies host the Spurs in a game that will likely be won on the defensive end of the floor. Both of these teams play at a slightly below average pace and they both own top ten defenses. That’s typically not the recipe that we like to see in daily fantasy basketball. This game should be competitive, but again, I will have limited exposure to players from this game. There are more favorable matchups to exploit tonight.
Injury Note: Zach Randolph is questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 19-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $9200, DK: $9500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Gasol has established himself as one of the best centers in the NBA. On the season, he is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game. His price obviously reflects his level of play, but don’t count him out just because his price is expensive. He has a good track record against the Spurs and he may have to anchor this offense if Zach Randolph is out again.