NBA Grind Down Tuesday, December 30th - Page Two
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Washington at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Washington | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.76 | Team Pace | 97.1 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 10 | 17 | 9 | 3 | Opp. Season | 5 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 19 | |
Washington
The Wizards picked up a tough win on the road against the Rockets last night and will look for their fourth win in a row tonight against the Mavericks. Vegas has the Wizards listed as 4.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 208.5 points. The Mavericks are a team that really likes to push the pace, averaging over 97 possessions per 48 minutes. Washington has a fantasy-friendly matchup against a team that is ranked in the bottom ten in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 22-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9600, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
We typically like to target Wall when he is at home, but his matchup against Rajon Rondo and the Mavericks is just too good to ignore. The Celtics were one of the worst at defending point guards during Rondo’s time there. Since the trade, the Mavericks have now been one of the worst against point guards. The common denominator here is Mr. Rondo’s defense. In addition to the great matchup, Wall’s price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6400, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22)
Beal is coming off of a season-high 34 points last night against the Rockets. While the Mavericks have been stingy against shooting guards this season, I can’t help but like his matchup against the much smaller Monta Ellis. Beal needs 32 fantasy points to reach value tonight, which is a feat that he can certainly accomplish in a high-scoring game against the Mavericks.
Dallas
If you look at the Vegas line and total alone, the Mavericks appear to be in a terrific matchup tonight. That said, the Wizards are actually a very good defensive team. They are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of only 96.8 points per game. The Wizards are also ranked seventh in rebounding differential. Dallas is still a team that you can target tonight, but the matchup is not as enticing as it first appears.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 22-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Rajon Rondo (FD: $8400, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 19)
In his first five games with his new team, Rondo is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. He has been much more aggressive looking for his own shot as a member of the Mavericks, as evidenced by his 14.8 shot attempts per game since joining the team. His price on FanDuel may be a little too high, but he’s one of the top point guard plays on DraftKings tonight. At a price of only $7,100, he only needs 35.5 fantasy points to reach value tonight.
Secondary Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $7000, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Parsons has the best matchup of the five starters. The Wizards have really struggled to defend small forwards this season, ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed. The former Gator has really picked up his play since the beginning of the season and is now averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game.
L.A. Lakers at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -7.5, 214 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| L.A. Lakers | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.50 | Vegas Sprd | -7.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.25 | Team Proj. | 110.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 98.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 19 | 13 | 27 | 22 | Opp. Season | 30 | 7 | 18 | 26 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 24 | 10 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have lost three straight and will likely be in store for another loss tonight as they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 7.5-point underdogs in this one. The good news is that the total is set at 214 points, which is the highest on the board tonight. The Lakers are projected to score 103.5 points tonight, which is slightly higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 13-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Ed Davis (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Davis was inserted into the starting lineup weeks ago, but he is just barely starting to see starter’s minutes. Over his last three games, he is averaging 32 minutes and 29 fantasy points per game. This is the perfect time to buy low on Davis before his price starts to come up. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $8700, DK: $9000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 35.4)
Bryant’s price has come way down on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While it may be tempting to target him tonight against the up-tempo Nuggets, he’s still a little too risky to use in cash games. That said, he does make an intriguing tournament play. Bryant is averaging 37.4 fantasy points per game this season and has 50 fantasy point type of upside.
Denver
The Nuggets draw the most favorable matchup on the board tonight. The Lakers are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. They are also ranked 28th in rebounding differential. The Nuggets’ team total is set at 110.5 points tonight, which is a full 9 points higher than their season average. Don’t be afraid to take a couple of Nuggets tonight in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 9-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8900, DK: $10000 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Lawson’s price difference on FanDuel and DraftKings is drastic. He’s close to one of the top point guard plays on FanDuel, while he doesn’t even crack the top five on DraftKings. That just goes to show you how price-sensitive these picks are. Lawson is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game this season. He draws a premier matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any team in the NBA.
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6500, DK: $6900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
The Nuggets finally found the “ON” switch for Faried. It reminds me of Christmas Vacation when Clark hooks up all of the Christmas lights, but forgets to turn on the power. Then finally, when they finally figure it out, the lights amaze everyone. Over his last three games, Faried is averaging 21 points, 19 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He should keep his solid play going tonight against the Lakers, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the entire NBA. Tonight may be the last night to target him at a price below $7,000.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $6000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21)
Chandler has bounced out of his mini-slump with back-to-back 30+ fantasy point outings. He is having a very solid season for the Nuggets, averaging 14 points and 6 rebounds per game. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Lakers, who as mentioned above, are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
Minnesota at Utah
- Vegas Line – Utah -7.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Muhammad-Brewer-Young-Dieng
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| Minnesota | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.04 | Team Pace | 92.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Shabazz Muhammad | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Season | 18 | 27 | 30 | 18 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 13 | 30 | 19 | 7 | |
Minnesota
This game will be a battle between two of the worst teams in the Western Conference. The T-Wolves are currently listed as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 203.5 points. This will be a downtempo game for the Wolves, but it’s still a fantasy-friendly matchup, as the Jazz are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 10-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Over his last seven games, Muhammad is averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has really stepped up in the absence of Corey Brewer and his price is still more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Jazz are a slow-paced team, but they are not all that sound defensively. Muhammad only needs around 30 fantasy points to reach value, a mark that he has reached five times in his last seven games.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah
This is a rare occurrence where the Jazz are big favorites in a game. They are 7.5-point favorites and are projected to score 105.5 points tonight. That’s more than nine points higher than their season average of 96.1 points per game. Obviously, this is a terrific matchup and it’s a rare night where you may want to consider targeting a couple of Jazz players.
Injury Note: There has not been an update on the status of Alec Burks. If he is forced to sit out, Rodney Hood would draw another start at shooting guard.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 109
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7700, DK: $7600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Hayward hasn’t had one of his 50 fantasy point outings in quite a while, but that could change tonight against the T-Wolves. They have one of the worst defenses in the NBA and have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team this season. Hayward is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game this season and is one of the best options at small forward tonight.
Trey Burke (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21)
Among all point guards on the schedule tonight, I have Burke projected as the most likely player to exceed value. He only needs 25 fantasy points to provide return on investment. That’s a feat that he should easily be able to accomplish against Zach LaVine and Minnesota, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. At $5,000, he is a low-risk, medium-to-high-reward fantasy option tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 207 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-J. Johnson-A. Johnson-Valanciunas
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Freeland
| Toronto | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.45 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Thomas Robinson | Joel Freeland | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 4 | 25 | 4 | 21 | Opp. Season | 16 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 22 | 5 | 26 | 9 | |
Toronto
The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games. If the playoffs were to start today, they would be the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they travel to Portland to take on a very talented Blazers team. The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 207 points. While the total is high, the Blazers are actually very stout defensively this season. They have held their opponents to an average of 96.5 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 25-7
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9900, DK: $10500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Lowry is the only Raptors’ player that really stands out tonight against the Blazers. He will square off against another top tier point guard in Damian Lillard. Both players are right on the fringe of being considered a top five point guard in the NBA. Lowry has been terrific ever since DeMar DeRozan went down with his injury and will continue to carry the load offensively. His price is a little higher than I would like to pay, but we’ve seen the type of fantasy outings that Lowry can put up.
Portland
The Blazers have also won eight of their last ten games. They are currently second in the Western Conference standings and boast an impressive 14-2 record at home. They may be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight though. Aldridge is currently listed as questionable for this game, so make sure to check the injury news throughout the day. Tonight’s matchup against Toronto is a decent one. The Raptors are average defensively and have given up 100.1 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 24-7
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $9000, DK: $10100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Over his last eight games, Lillard is averaging 26 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. He may be asked to carry the load offensively tonight if LaMarcus Aldridge is unable to suit up. While Kyle Lowry is known as an elite defender, the Raptors have actually been very average (16th) in fantasy points allowed to points guards this season. Lillard is ‘priced to move’ tonight on FanDuel at only $9,000.
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews (FD: $6000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 20)
Matthews has broken out of his mini-slump, averaging 25 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists per game over his last three. He’s one of those players that can get hot at any time during the game. The matchup against the Raptors isn’t ideal, but Matthews would see a small fantasy boost if LaMarcus Aldridge is forced to sit out tonight’s game.
Philadelphia at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -18.5, 207.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Sampson-Covington-Noel
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Speights
| Philadelphia | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 18.5 | Vegas Sprd | -18.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 113.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 100.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Tony Wroten | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Marreese Speights | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Season | 11 | 28 | 29 | 16 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 11 | |
Philadelphia
This game has blowout written all over it. The Sixers are 18-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors. Not only do the Warriors have one of the biggest home-court advantages in the NBA, but they are also the best defensive team in the league in terms of efficiency. I’m fully expecting a blowout in this one, but there are still two players that you may want to have exposure to from the Sixers tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 24-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Tony Wroten (FD: $6300, DK: $4800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 28.8)
The way I see it, Wroten should be locked into your DraftKings lineups tonight. He’s in play on FanDuel as well, but is sitting at a bargain-bin price of only $4,800 on DraftKings. At this price, he only needs 24 fantasy points to reach value. Wroten can usually get that amount with his eyes closed. Plus, there is a chance that he could move into the starting lineup tonight with Mbah a Moute ruled out. Wroten has 40 fantasy point type of upside and deserves a spot on your roster tonight, even in a tough matchup against the Warriors.
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Covington just continues to produce. He has now topped 26 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He may see a small fantasy boost tonight with Mbah a Moute ruled out. Even though this game will likely turn into a blowout, Covington’s minutes should still be secure.
Golden State
The good news for the fantasy appeal of the Warriors is that they don’t play again until Friday. The bad news is that they could easily be up by 20 points by the end of the third quarter. The risk of a blowout comes into play here. On a night with a full slate of games, I will likely be avoiding all Warriors for cash games, as I don’t expect the starters to see their usual complement of minutes. That said, the Warriors do make terrific tournament targets tonight, as the upside is certainly there against the Sixers. It may not be a bad idea to take a couple of Warriors in a tournament and hope for a semi-close game.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 4-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None