NBA Grind Down Tuesday, December 9th - Page Two
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Miami at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-McRoberts-Wade
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Morris-Plumlee
| Miami | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.75 | Team Proj. | 103.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.86 | Team Pace | 99.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Josh McRoberts | Chris Bosh | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Goran Dragic | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 20 | Opp. Season | 13 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 26 | 2 | 8 | 19 | |
Miami
The Heat travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that will likely be playing on tired legs, after losing in overtime to the Clippers last night. The Heat are listed as 5-point underdogs, but the total is set at 202 points, which suggests a fast-paced game. This will be a pace-up game for the Heat, as the Suns average almost eight more possessions per game. This is a sneaky-good matchup for the Heat.
Elite Plays
Chris Bosh (FD: $8500, DK: $8300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Bosh continues to play well with LeBron out of the picture. On the season, he is averaging 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He seems to be off of most people’s fantasy radar with Dwyane Wade back, but his production with Wade in the lineup has not taken a hit this season. Bosh draws a terrific matchup against Miles Plumlee and the Suns, who are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing centers. Bosh may also have a nice game on the glass, as the Suns are ranked 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 32.9)
The one concern that I have with Wade tonight is that the Heat have back-to-back games. The good news is that this is the first half of the back-to-back. Still though, it’s enough to bump him from an elite play to a secondary play. Wade has put together a nice three-game stretch, averaging 27 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He has a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SGs.
Josh McRoberts (FD: $4100, DK: $4500 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
McRoberts, aka McBob, is an interesting value play tonight. He hasn’t exactly been great since entering the starting lineup, but he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He’s also coming off of a season-high 28 minutes against the Grizzlies. His increased playing time and role in the offense are both good signs of things to come. Update: McRoberts is now questionable for tonight’s game after missing shoot-around.
Phoenix
The Suns starters all logged heavy minutes last night against the Clippers in what looked like a heart-breaking loss. They will look to get back on track tonight as they host the Heat at home. On the season, the Heat are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency, dead last in rebounding differential, and they have allowed opponents to score an average of 98.7 points per game.
Injury Note: Isaiah Thomas is hopeful that he will play tonight, but is still listed as questionable. His eventual return may hurt the minutes/production of both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe.
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Bledsoe has been on a terrific run over his last four games, averaging 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. He capped it off with one of the best stat lines of the season last night against the Clippers. He finished the game 27 points, 11 rebounds, and 16 assists. He’ll look to keep his hot streak going tonight against the Heat. Bledsoe’s price on FD may be too good to pass up, especially in cash games, as his ownership level is going to be high.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7000, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
On paper, Morris has a tough matchup against the Heat, as they are ranked 9th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing PFs. That said, most of that defensive prowess came with Shawne Williams in the starting unit, not Josh McRoberts. Morris is one of the few big men in the NBA with a good post game and a good jump shot. He has been inconsistent this season, but his price is awfully tempting on both FD and DK.
San Antonio at Utah
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9, 195 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Diaw
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| San Antonio | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.0 |  | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.87 | Team Pace | 92.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Boris Diaw | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 3 | Opp. Season | 9 | 1 | 23 | 15 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 20 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs will be without Tony Parker tonight, as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. Cory Joseph will draw the start in his place and immediately becomes one of the top value plays on the board. Even without Parker in the lineup, the Spurs are 9-point favorites tonight on the road against the Jazz. While the Jazz do play at a slow pace, they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Spurs winning machine should continue to roll tonight.
Elite Plays
Cory Joseph (FD: $4700, DK: $4700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Luckily, Joseph’s price has come up on both FD and DK. He was close to minimum salary the other night when he drew the start and his ownership level was through the roof. Hopefully his price tag of $4,700 will scare some people off of him tonight. While Joseph isn’t quite as talented as Tony Parker, would you take Parker for $4,700 against the Jazz. Of course you would. Joseph should be targeted in all league formats tonight. In his two starts this season, he is averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game.
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7200, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22)
Leonard gets a bad rap in the DFS world because he plays on the Spurs. But he’s not like the other veterans. If you look at his minutes, he has played at least 30 minutes in seven of his last eight games. His usage rate is up this season and the Spurs are calling more plays for him on offense. He’s a viable option at small forward tonight against the Jazz, especially on FD where he is listed at $7,200.
Utah
I mentioned earlier that the Mavericks have the worst matchup on the board, but the Jazz are right there in the conversation. The Spurs have been dominant defensively this season, regardless of who has been on the court. They are ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to only 94.0 points per game. Personally, I’ll be avoiding the Jazz altogether tonight, but I could certainly see the merit in targeting Gordon Hayward or Trey Burke as a tournament play.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Lakers -2.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Evans
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
| Sacramento | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.43 | Team Pace | 97.87 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | Reggie Evans | Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 9 | 22 | 22 | 28 | Opp. Season | 18 | 13 | 11 | 29 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 9 | |
Sacramento
DeMarcus Cousins is nowhere near a return to the floor. While Ryan Hollins had been drawing the starts in his absence, he failed to do much of anything, which led to Reggie Evans getting the start last night. Evans will likely be the starter again tonight as he has played well recently. The Kings have arguably the best matchup on the board. The Lakers are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season. Don’t be afraid to load up on the Kings tonight.
Elite Plays
Rudy Gay (FD: $8300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Gay is easily my favorite play at SF tonight. Over his last six games, he is averaging 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He is the clear number one option offensively with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup. Tonight he draws an extremely favorable matchup against Wesley Johnson and the Lakers, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SFs.
Darren Collison (FD: $7600, DK: $6900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Darren “Cash Game” Collison should be back at it again tonight as the Kings head to L.A. to take on the Lakers. On the season, Collison is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He will be asked to help shoulder the load offensively with Cousins out again and his price is still very affordable on DK. He will be a staple in my cash games tonight, as the Lakers are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Jason Thompson (FD: $5000, DK: $4300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 11.6)
When you target Thompson in daily fantasy basketball, you do so rather hesitantly as he has put up quite a few fantasy duds over the last few years. The good news is that he has scored at least 22 fantasy points and he has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games. He’s affordable and draws a terrific matchup against the Lakers, who lack any interior defense.
Reggie Evans (FD: $4600, DK: $4000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Evans makes a very interesting play tonight, especially if he draws another start. While his offensive game is rather limited, he’s one of the best rebounders in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Lakers are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Evans grab 15+ rebounds tonight, many of which could come on the offensive glass.
L.A. Lakers
Before daily fantasy sports, Kobe Bryant was one of my least favorite NBA players. But it’s gotten to a point where even I feel bad for the guy. He’s one of the top ten NBA players in history and he’s playing on a team that is starting Ronnie Price, Wesley Johnson, Ed Davis, and Jordan Hill. Hill is the only player that would be a borderline starter on a decent team. Anyway, as DFS players, all we need to care about is their matchup for tonight. The Lakers are actually 2.5-point favorites in game that features a total of 206.5 points.
Elite Plays
Ed Davis (FD: $4600, DK: $4100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 12.6)
Now that Davis is in the starting lineup, he’s a very strong play at his price point. His salary is based on a 22 minute per game basis, but he’ll likely see 30+ minutes tonight against the Kings. Take advantage of the low price while you still can. It also doesn’t hurt that Davis draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing PFs.
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $8700, DK: $9500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 35.5)
Bryant has hit a rough stretch. Over his last four games, he is only averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. The good news is that his price on FD has come way down. He still has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA. He should be able to turn things around tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SGs.
Ronnie Price (FD: $4200, DK: $3700 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 12.5)
Price is worth a look as a value play tonight. I don’t like him nearly as much as Cory Joseph, but he should see around 30 minutes of action tonight against the Kings. At his price, he’s certainly in play to reach value on a 5x salary value system.