NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 10th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Detroit at Charlotte – 7:00 PM EST

Detroit Charlotte
detroitnba Vegas Total 192 charlottenba Vegas Total 192
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 95.3 Team Proj. 97.3
Team Pace 95.80 Team Pace 95.25
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter D.J. Augustin Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Singler Greg Monroe Andre Drummond Proj Starter Brian Roberts Gerald Henderson Jeff Taylor Cody Zeller Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 6 19 4 14 6 Opp. Season 5 15 24 28 27
Opp. Last 7 7 4 9 28 1 Opp. Last 7 5 17 4 9 26


Detroit

The Pistons have lost six of their last ten games, but still have their sites on the playoffs. They are currently only two and a half games behind the Hornets, who are clinging on to the eighth seed in the East. The Hornets present a difficult matchup for fantasy purposes. They play at at the eighth-slowest pace and have held their opponents to the third-fewest points per game. The Pistons’ team total is set at only 95.3 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.

Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 22-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe (FD: $8000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.8)

The Hornets are stout defensively, but they have struggled to contain opposing power forwards recently. Monroe is a tough cover for anyone and he has recently outplayed his frontcourt-mate Andre Drummond. Over the last three weeks, Monroe has averaged 35.7 fantasy points per contest. He should have his way down low with the likes of Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond (FD: $8400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.2)

Drummond is strictly a tournament play tonight, but he’s a good one at that. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, averaging 30.7 minutes during that stretch. He is prone to foul trouble though, which is why he is listed as a secondary play against Al Jefferson and the Hornets.

D.J. Augustin (FD: $7200, DK: $7300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 22.2)

Augustin has played well over his last eight games, averaging 20 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. If it wasn’t for that dud against the Sixers, those numbers would be even higher. He offers a ton of upside at his price point, but he does draw a tough matchup against Brian Roberts and the Hornets.

Charlotte

The Hornets have won six of their last eight games. If the season ended today, they would find themselves in the playoffs. Tonight they host the Detroit Pistons in a game that has one of the lowest totals on the board. The Pistons are a mediocre matchup. They are ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, 18th in points allowed per game, and 9th in rebounding differential.

Injury Note – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will not play tonight.

Player Update – Gary Neal has been traded to the Timberwolves for Mo Williams. It will likely take another day or two before both players pass their physicals. If that’s the case, that leaves Neal’s usual 15-20 minutes open tonight against the Pistons. Lance Stephenson stands to be the biggest beneficiary.

Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 20-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9

Elite Plays

Al Jefferson (FD: $8300, DK: $7700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 26.9)

Working his way back from injury, Jefferson’s minutes have been down recently. He’s still been very productive recently though, averaging 36.7 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. He should see minutes in the mid-30’s tonight against a Pistons’ defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Gerald Henderson (FD: $5700, DK: $5100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.2)

Henderson’s usage rate has been much higher recently, largely due to the injury of Kemba Walker. The offense has basically run through Henderson and Jefferson the last few games. His price has come up across the industry, but Henderson is coming off of a terrific four-game stretch, where he has averaged 34.3 fantasy points in 37 minutes per contest.

Secondary Plays

Brian Roberts (FD: $5100, DK: $4600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18.6)

Roberts is a viable value play at point guard tonight. He may not have the highest upside in the player pool, but he is seeing all of the run that he can handle with Kemba Walker out. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 22 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest.

Lance Stephenson (FD: $4900, DK: $4500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 20.7)

Stephenson only saw 20 minutes of action against his former team the other night, which was a little strange with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out. Look for his minutes to be in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s tonight against Pistons.


Sacramento at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST

Sacramento Chicago
sacramentonba Vegas Total 200.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 200.5
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 97.35 Team Pace 95.76
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ramon Sessions Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Pau Gasol Joakim Noah
Opp. Season 13 4 19 25 15 Opp. Season 27 30 8 19 26
Opp. Last 7 8 20 18 10 3 Opp. Last 7 20 28 19 19 27


Sacramento

The Kings will be without Darren Collison tonight. They may also be without Rudy Gay, as he is currently listed as questionable. That doesn’t bode well for their chances against the Bulls. Vegas has the Kings listed as 9-point favorites in a game that features a generous total of 200 points. The Bulls present an average matchup at best. They are ranked in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 32-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10800, DK: $10500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.8)

Cousins is about as matchup-proof as any player in the NBA. The one player that can shut Cousins down is Cousins. As long as he stays out of foul trouble tonight, he should have another monster fantasy outing against a Bulls’ frontcourt that isn’t nearly as intimidating as it once was. Cousins has averaged 47.2 fantasy points in 37 minutes per game over his last six outings.

Ramon Sessions (FD: $3800, DK: $4000 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 19.6)

Darren Collison has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Sessions will draw another start at point guard. In five starts this season, Collison has averaged 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He should be able to post a similar stat line tonight against Derrick Rose and the Bulls.

Secondary Plays

Omri Casspi (FD: $3500, DK: $3000) would slide into the starting lineup if Rudy Gay is unable to suit up. In three starts this season, he has averaged 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. We will take that level of production from a min-salary player any day of the week.

Chicago

The Bulls draw one of the most favorable matchups on tonight’s schedule. They are hosting the Sacramento Kings, who have allowed an average of 104.1 points per game this season. The Kings do rebound well (first in differential), but that’s about all they do well. The Bulls are projected to score 104.8 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average. Coach Thibadeau typically gives his starters their usual complement of minutes regardless of the outcome, which helps negate the potential blowout.

Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 18-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol (FD: $9700, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)

Gasol is coming off of a terrific six-game stretch, where he averaged 17 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks per game. He has become one of the most reliable fantasy options in the entire NBA. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

Joakim Noah (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)

Noah is finally producing at a level that we’ve become accustomed to over the years. Over his last six games, he has averaged 32.9 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he has grabbed 12.8 rebounds per contest. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, he should see big minutes, as he will be tasked with defending DeMarcus Cousins.

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose (FD: $7000, DK: $7500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 31.3)

As strange as it is to say, Rose has actually been a better target in cash games than he has in tournaments. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last nine games and he has only scored more than 31 fantasy points one time during that stretch. Rose draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who struggle to defend all positions on the floor.

Jimmy Butler (FD: $8800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.5)

Butler has quietly averaged 41 fantasy points per game over his last five contests. He should fly under the radar tonight, despite drawing a terrific matchup against the Kings, who are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season. Butler may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is a strong play on DraftKings at only $7,800.


Houston at Phoenix – 8:00 PM EST

Houston Phoenix
houstonnba Vegas Total 215 phoenixnba Vegas Total 215
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 106.5 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 98.53 Team Pace 99.13
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Joey Dorsey Proj Starter Goran Dragic Eric Bledsoe P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Miles Plumlee
Opp. Season 9 20 27 7 23 Opp. Season 2 27 13 21 16
Opp. Last 7 4 18 17 15 24 Opp. Last 7 11 26 1 20 14


Houston

The Rockets have won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in the third seed in the Western Conference. They travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns tonight in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game. The Rockets are 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 215 points. This may be the best matchup on tonight’s schedule, as the Suns are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 29-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Elite Plays

James Harden (FD: $11200, DK: $10300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.4)

Harden already has an extremely high usage rate, and it has only gone up with Dwight Howard out with his injury. Harden is the top overall play in tonight’s slate and should be a staple in your cash game lineups. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 49.6 fantasy points per contest. During that stretch, he has topped the 50 fantasy point mark six times.

Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.9)

Ariza seems to make my list of suggested plays every night that the Rockets are on the schedule. He’s affordable and he plays at small forward, which is usually a thin position in the daily fantasy basketball world. Ariza has averaged 33.3 fantasy points per game over his last four outings and he draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Suns.

Secondary Plays

Josh Smith (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.6)

It may be unnerving to pay over $6,000 for a player that comes off the bench, but Smith is seeing starter’s minutes and he has really taken advantage of his increased role with Dwight Howard out. Over his last six games, he has averaged 33 fantasy points in 29 minutes per contest. He makes a strong play in tournaments tonight.

Phoenix

The Suns are desperately clinging to the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference. They have lost six of their last ten games and are losing ground to both the Pelicans and the Thunder. Tonight they host the Rockets in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. While the Suns do score a ton of points per game, they are a tough team to predict on a nightly basis. They also draw a fairly tough matchup against a Rockets’ defense that is ranked third in efficiency this season.

Injury Note – Alex Len is doubtful for tonight’s game.

Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 35-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Markieff Morris (FD: $6200, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.3)

Morris is about as cheap as he has been all season, despite the fact that he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. He draws a decent matchup against a Rockets’ frontcourt that is missing Dwight Howard. He should also see a small uptick in minutes with Alex Len doubtful for tonight’s game.

Miles Plumlee (FD: $3700, DK: $3300 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 11.3)

This pick hinges on the health of Alex Len. He’s likely going to be held out through the All-Star break though, which means Plumlee should draw another start at center. He is coming off of a strong 27.9 fantasy point outing and is still close to minimum salary across the industry.

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8400, DK: $7700) and Goran Dragic (FD: $6000, DK: $5800) are both decent secondary options against the Rockets. I find myself leaning in other directions at their respective positions though.


Brooklyn at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST

Brooklyn Memphis
brooklynnba Vegas Total 190 memphisnba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 88.8 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 94.20 Team Pace 94.11
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jarrett Jack Alan Anderson Joe Johnson Brook Lopez Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 3 14 11 4 1 Opp. Season 18 25 6 23 9
Opp. Last 7 25 1 2 3 4 Opp. Last 7 19 15 15 13 20


Brooklyn

The Nets are extremely inconsistent right now. After losing four in a row, they turned around and won the next three games. They followed that up with losses in their last two. Tonight they travel to Memphis to take on a Grizzlies’ defense that has held their opponents to fewer points per game than any other team in the NBA this season. While the matchup is less than ideal, there are actually Nets’ two players that I will have some exposure to tonight.

Injury Note – This is the second half of a back-to-back, which means Kevin Garnett will likely get the night off to rest.

Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 38-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 26.7)

This pick hinges on the availability of Kevin Garnett, but he will likely sit out the tail end of the Nets’ back-to-back. Lopez has been on a tear recently, averaging 34.4 fantasy points in 31 minutes per game over his last seven outings. His minute total should be close to 35 tonight, if Garnett does in fact sit this one out.

Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.9)

Johnson has quietly been producing at a high level recently. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, reaching the 30 fantasy point mark three times during that stretch. The Grizzlies have been average at defending wing players this season and Johnson’s price is currently depressed.

Memphis

The Grizzlies have won nine of their last ten games and have one of the best home records in the NBA at 22-5. They should pick up another victory tonight, as they host the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets provide a favorable matchup for fantasy purposes. They are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency, 15th in points allowed per game, and 24th in rebounding differential this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 21-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol (FD: $8300, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.8)

Gasol may be the most reliable center in daily fantasy basketball. If you are looking for a center that is close to a lock for 30+ fantasy points, Gasol is your guy. He has averaged 35.9 fantasy points per game over his last five outings and should post a similar outing tonight against the average frontcourt of the Nets.

Zach Randolph (FD: $8600, DK: $8300) and Mike Conley (FD: $6800, DK: $6900) are also in play tonight, but I will be limiting my exposure to the Grizzlies in a potential blowout situation.


Denver at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM EST

Denver L.A. Lakers
denvernba Vegas Total 202 lalakersnba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 102.0
Team Pace 98.43 Team Pace 96.75
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Wilson Chandler Kenneth Faried Jusuf Nurkic Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Wayne Ellington Ryan Kelly Tarik Black Robert Sacre
Opp. Season 30 21 20 12 24 Opp. Season 15 28 22 29 25
Opp. Last 7 21 19 28 18 23 Opp. Last 7 26 27 22 23 12


Denver

The Nuggets have lost 13 of their last 14 games. They have been on the wrong end of plenty of blowouts during that stretch. The good news is that they get to face a Lakers’ team tonight that is only 13-38 on the season. This is arguably the best matchup on the board, as the Lakers are ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 20th in rebounding differential this season.

Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 13-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Elite Plays

Ty Lawson (FD: $8400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21)

In daily fantasy sports, we look for players that offer good value and have a favorable matchup. Lawson has both of those tonight against the Lakers, who have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than any other team in the NBA this season. Lawson’s price is also depressed, giving us an opportunity to buy low on him in a very favorable matchup.

Jusuf Nurkic (FD: $5000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 21.6)

The one knock on Nurkic is his playing time, but luckily his minutes have been trending upward. Over his last three games, he has averaged 32 fantasy points in 27 minutes per outing. If he can see minutes in the mid to upper 20’s tonight, he should easily reach value against the soft frontcourt of the Lakers.

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Faried (FD: $6300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.3)

Faried loves to constantly remind us why he shouldn’t be targeted in cash games. That said, with such a short slate and with such a great matchup, it’s going to be awfully tough to fade Faried tonight. His price is depressed and he is coming off of a strong three-game stretch, averaging 31.7 fantasy points per contest. He’s a borderline elite play tonight against the Lakers.

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers have lost nine of their last ten games, but they have actually been competitive in recent games, which is more than we can say about the Nuggets. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 2-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 202 points. The Nuggets present a terrific matchup for the Lakers, as they have allowed the fourth-most points per game this season. The biggest concern with the Lakers is Byron Scott’s inconsistent rotation.

Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Elite Plays

Jordan Clarkson (FD: $4900, DK: $5100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.6)

If you throw out his bad game against the Bucks (who are ranked #1 against point guards), Clarkson has averaged 27 fantasy points in 32 minutes per game over his last five outings. He is a pesky defender whose length causes problems for opposing point guards. He should excel in an uptempo game against the Nuggets, who have struggled to contain opposing point guards recently.

Secondary Plays

Wayne Ellington (FD: $5000, DK: $4900 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 17.7)

Ellington has played well over his last six games, averaging 24.2 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against Arron Afflalo and the Nuggets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. He’s in play at his affordable price point across the industry.

Ed Davis (FD: $5500, DK: $4900) is the preferred play of the Lakers’ bigs tonight. He has been extremely productive in limited minutes and faces a beatable frontcourt of the Nuggets. He’s still a risky option though, given his playing time. Here is the average minute distribution of the Lakers’ frontcourt over the last five games: Sacre: 25.6, Boozer: 24.6, Davis: 23.2, and Black: 20.7.


About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious