NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 3rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Denver at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Denver -6, 192 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Drew-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Denver | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.36 | Team Pace | 97.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Larry Drew II | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 13 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 28 | 18 | |
Denver
The Nuggets have lost nine of their last ten games, but face arguably the worst team in the NBA tonight. The Nuggets are 6-point favorites against the Sixers in a game that features a total of 192 points. The total is a bit misleading though, as both of these teams are ranked in the top ten in pace of play. There should be plenty of fantasy goodness in this one, especially if it stays competitive throughout the game.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 10-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Lawson has failed to score 30 fantasy points in any of his last three games, but his discounted price makes him an appealing fantasy option tonight against the Sixers. On the season, Lawson is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He may also see a small fantasy boost if he matches up with Larry Drew II, rather than Michael Carter-Williams.
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
The small forward position is thin again tonight, but Chandler offers great value at his price. He is coming off of a solid six-game stretch where he has averaged 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He also draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Arron Afflalo (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Afflalo has struggled in each of his last two games, but had averaged 29 fantasy points in his previous five outings. With the shooting guard position leaving much to be desired tonight, Afflalo is an elite play at the position. He should get plenty of open looks against a Sixers’ team that has allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6400, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Faried missed Saturday’s game with an illness, but is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. He is still a risky option in cash games, but he has seen consistent minutes recently and he has averaged 28 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. Faried makes a great tournament play against a Sixers’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential.
Philadelphia
The Sixers may be without Michael Carter-Williams tonight. He injured his shin and his ankle last night against the Cavaliers and it sounds like he’s closer to doubtful tonight against the Nuggets. If he is forced to sit, Larry Drew II would make his second start of the season. In terms of the Sixers’ matchup against the Nuggets, this is a favorable one. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have allowed the fifth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5700, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Covington is starting to become much more than just a three-point specialist. Over his last five games, he has averaged 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals per game. His price is affordable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $6100, DK: $5200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Noel is a borderline elite play on DraftKings at $5,200 and a solid secondary play on FanDuel. He still struggles with consistency, but he has averaged 27 fantasy points per game over his last nine outings. He is also facing a Nuggets’ frontcourt that really struggles to defend the paint. The Nuggets are ranked 28th against power forwards and 27th against Centers.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (FD: $4700, DK: $4200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.2)
Mbah a Moute has quietly put together some solid fantasy outings. Over his last five games, he has averaged 24 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action per game. At his price point, he only needs 21-24 fantasy points to reach value against a Nuggets’ team that has struggled to defend opposing bigs.
Miami at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -4, 186 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Napier-Chalmers-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| Miami | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186 |  | Vegas Total | 186 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.0 | Team Proj. | 95.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.83 | Team Pace | 96.05 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shabazz Napier | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 15 | 28 | 27 | 25 | Opp. Season | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 10 | 30 | 15 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 5 | |
Miami
The Heat will be without Dwyane Wade again tonight, but they are hoping to have Luol Deng back in the lineup. He went through shoot-around this morning and is listed as probable. The Heat travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons in a game that has the lowest total on the board. The low total is concerning, but on a short slate, this is not a game that we need to avoid.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 18-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
The Whiteside hype is at an all-time high. Over his last four games, he has averaged 16.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 4 blocks per game. While his salary is trending upward, so are his minutes. He has incredible upside and is still sitting at a playable salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Mario Chalmers (FD: $5100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
With Dwyane Wade out tonight, Chalmers will continue to be the main playmaker in the Heat offense. He has really played well in Wade’s absence this season and only needs 26-27 fantasy points to reach value. He offers good value tonight against the Pistons.
Secondary Plays
Luol Deng (FD: $6000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Deng has been dealing with some injuries, but as long as he gets the green light to play tonight, he deserves consideration at small forward. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 31 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He should also see a small increase in usage with Dwyane Wade out.
Detroit
The Pistons have cooled off in recent weeks, but are still only three games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 4-point favorites tonight against the Heat. This is arguably the worst matchup in daily fantasy basketball though. The Heat are the slowest-paced team in the NBA and have held their opponents to the fewest amount of points per game. You will see plenty of red boxes in the DvP chart above.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 21-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.9 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8500, DK: $8400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Monroe has flourished since the Pistons waived Josh Smith. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 16 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. While the Heat have been stingy against power forwards, they have been slightly worse since Chris Bosh has moved over to the position. Monroe should be able to get what he wants in the paint tonight, the only question is whether or not he will be able to pay off that expensive salary in a slow-paced game.
D.J. Augustin (FD: $7000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Augustin may be a tough target for many, after he killed a ton of lineups with his 10 fantasy point outing against the Sixers. He has still scored at least 36 fantasy points in three of his last four games though and has an appealing price tag on DraftKings. He should continue to see all of the playing time that he can handle with Brandon Jennings out.
Boston at New York – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New York -1, 190.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Bass
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
| Boston | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190.5 |  | Vegas Total | 190.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 95.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.89 | Team Pace | 92.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 21 | Opp. Season | 22 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 16 | |
Boston
The Celtics have lost seven of their last ten games, but are expected to keep tonight’s game against the Knicks competitive. The Celtics are only 1-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of 190.5 points. The Knicks provide a favorable matchup to exploit though, as they are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, 20th in points allowed per game, and 27th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-38
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Bass has made the most of his opportunity to start. Over his last six games, he has averaged 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. His price is still reasonable across the industry and he provides a high floor, making him a solid target for cash games against this makeshift frontcourt of the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4600, DK: $3700 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 14.7)
The Knicks have really struggled to defend point guards recently. While Evan Turner will draw the start, Marcus Smart has actually been seeing more minutes than Turner recently. Over his last four games, he has averaged 24 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action per game.
New York
The Knicks have won five of their last ten games. As sad as it is, this has been their best ten game stretch of the season. They have a good chance of picking up another win tonight against the Celtics at home. The Celtics play at a fast pace and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 103.0 points per game this season. The Knicks are projected to score 96 points tonight, which is almost four points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 16-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 103 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Jason Smith (FD: $4600, DK: $4700 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20)
Smith has been a plug for me in cash games in recent weeks. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action per game. His price has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production and he remains a top value play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He also draws a favorable matchup against a weak Celtics’ frontcourt.
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony (FD: $9500, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32)
Anthony has played well recently, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA (32.0) and is facing an uptempo Celtics’ team tonight. The one thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup against Jae Crowder. The Celtics have been one of the best at defending small forwards since they traded for Crowder.
Langston Galloway (FD: $5300, DK: $5300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 20)
Galloway has made the most of his opportunity to start. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action per game. Unlike Jason Smith, his price does match his recent level of production. He needs around 26 fantasy points to reach value against the Celtics tonight.
Louis Amundson (FD: $4300, DK: $3700 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Amundson has been a sneaky play over the last week or so. His minutes are trending upward and so is his fantasy production. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who have not defended the center position well this season.
Utah at Portland – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -8.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Utah | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.93 | Team Pace | 96.75 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Season | 15 | 20 | 10 | 15 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |
Utah
This game has the least amount of fantasy appeal tonight. The Jazz head to Portland to take on the Blazers in what could be a potential blowout. The Blazers have really struggled over their last ten games, but the Jazz are not a great road team (8-16). It also doesn’t help that the Blazers own a top ten defense, holding their opponents to an average of 97.3 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 32-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8100, DK: $8100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
This is typically a spot where I would avoid Hayward, but with the limited options at small forward, he deserves consideration tonight. Despite having the reputation as a shut down defender, Nicolas Batum and the Blazers are only ranked 16th against small forwards this season. Hayward also comes into tonight’s game on a hot streak, as he has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Joe Ingles (FD: $4400, DK: $4300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 11.5)
It’s hard not to cheer for a guy like Joe Ingles. He has made the most of his opportunity to start, as he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last five games. He is seeing 30+ minutes of action each game and is still relatively cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Portland
The Blazers have lost eight of their last ten games, but should snap out of it tonight against the Jazz. The Blazers are 8.5-point favorites in this one. They are also expecting to have Robin Lopez back in the lineup, which should help bolster their defense down low. Lopez will likely be limited in his first few games back and his presence hurts the value of Chris Kaman and Meyers Leonard. LaMarcus Aldridge is a decent option tonight, but it’s hard to justify his heft price tag in a potential blowout against the Jazz.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 17-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8700, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Lillard is playing angry right now after being snubbed from the All-Star team. You can tell in his interviews that it really bothers him. An angry Lillard is a great one to target in daily fantasy basketball. He should be an extremely tough matchup for the likes of Dante Exum and Trey Burke.
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5800, DK: $5800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Matthews has played well over his last eight games, averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has also averaged 36 minutes of action per game during that stretch. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Joe Ingles and the Jazz, who are ranked 20th against shooting guards this season.
Golden State at Sacramento – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -9.5, 217.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Golden State | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 113.5 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.32 | Team Pace | 97.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 29 | 8 | 19 | 26 | Opp. Season | 10 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 20 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 15 | |
Golden State
The Warriors head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in a game that has the highest total on the board. The Warriors are projected to score 113 points tonight, which is nine points higher than the next highest team total. The Kings provide a great matchup to exploit, as they are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 17-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $10300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Curry is easily the top point guard on the board tonight. On the season, he is averaging 23 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 steals per game. He has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and he draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Klay Thompson (FD: $8200, DK: $8500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
If tonight had a larger slate of games, Thompson would be an easy fade for me, as his price has come way up. But tonight’s five game slate has very few shooting guard options, which puts Thompson in the elite play category of his position. He has averaged 39.5 fantasy points per game over his last nine outings.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Green’s price has come down to a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. At this price point, he needs 35-37 fantasy points to reach value. He is certainly capable of that and much more. His minutes are trending upward over his last four (33 minutes per game).
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5500, DK: $4800 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Bogut is an appealing tournament play tonight against the Kings. He only averages 24 minutes per game, but the Warriors may ask him to play a few extra tonight against DeMarcus Cousins. Bogut is averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute this season and could easily reach 6x-7x salary tonight.
Sacramento
The Kings have lost eight of their last ten games and are listed as 9.5-point underdogs against the Warriors. While the Warriors are the most efficient team defensively this season, their pace of play helps offset that. The Warriors are right in the middle-of-the-pack in terms of points allowed per game at 99.6.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 37-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10900, DK: $10500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.7)
Cousins has as much upside as any player in the NBA. He is also one of the most matchup-proof players in the NBA. He has scored at least 45 fantasy points in five of his last six games and should be the focal point of the Kings’ offense again tonight. They will need a big outing from Cousins if they want to have any chance of pulling off the upset at home.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21)
Collison provides a high floor, making him a great cash game target. On the season, he is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He may see upward of 40 minutes tonight against the Warriors, as he will be tasked with defending one of the best point guards in the NBA in Stephen Curry.