NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
We have a small two-game slate on tap Tuesday night. With such a small slate, we are going to have to search long and hard for viable fantasy options.
Oklahoma City at Miami – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -6.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
| Oklahoma City | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.09 | Team Pace | 91.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | Opp. Season | 25 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 22 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City
The first game of the night is between the Thunder and Heat. The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and are slowly creeping into the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Vegas has the Thunder listed as 6.5-point favorites against the Heat in a game that features a fairly low total of 198.5 points. While the Heat aren’t the best team defensively, they play at such a slow pace that they are ranked 13th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 18-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 29.4)
It has taken some time, but Durant is finally starting to produce at a level that we are accustomed to. Over his last four games, he is averaging 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. His matchup against Luol Deng is tough on paper, but Durant is matchup-proof, as he can score in a variety of ways. He should be considered the top overall fantasy option tonight.
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7200, DK: $6900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Ibaka typically gets overlooked on a full slate of games, but should be one of the top plays at forward tonight. He has played well over his last five, averaging 33 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action per game. He also draws the best matchup of the starters, as Chris Bosh starts at power forward now. Bosh has never been known as an elite defender.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10600, DK: $10200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 37.3)
Westbrook has been inconsistent recently, but should be on your radar for tonight’s game against the Heat. He has 60 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor, which makes him a terrific option for tournaments. On the season, he is averaging 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He is a tough matchup for the likes of Mario Chalmers, Shabazz Napier, and Norris Cole.
Dion Waiters (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Waiters provides some much-needed salary cap relief on a night where value plays are hard to come by. He is seeing big minutes off the Thunder bench, averaging 27 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action per game in his last four. He’s never been shy offensively and now that he is seeing consistent minutes off the bench, Waiters deserves fantasy consideration tonight.
Kendrick Perkins (FD: $3600, DK: $3000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Perkins is a DraftKings blue-light special tonight. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he has a fairly high floor for a player at his price point. He has scored at least 13 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. The pick is more about the discount, as he allows you to afford to spend up on some of the other positions tonight.
Miami
The Heat are hoping to have Dwyane Wade back in the lineup tonight. Wade made it through practice on Monday, but is still being listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game against the Thunder. If Wade is unable to suit up, Mario Chalmers and Shabazz Napier would both be in line for increased roles. The Heat’s matchup against the Thunder is more favorable than it appears on paper. While the Thunder are ranked ninth in defensive efficiency, they are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA when Durant and Westbrook are in the lineup together. The Heat are projected to score 96 points tonight, which is actually a couple points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 20-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8400, DK: $8300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.2)
Assuming Wade is in the lineup tonight, he makes a viable fantasy option at shooting guard. He has one of the highest usage rates in the entire NBA (34.2) and his price has come down across the industry. On the season, he is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He should be able to put up a similar stat line tonight against the Thunder, who have struggled to contain shooting guards recently.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Whiteside is coming off of his worst game in weeks. Prior to that game, he had scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last eight games. During that eight-game stretch, Whiteside averaged 12 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. As long as he remains in the starting lineup tonight, he makes an intriguing upside play against the Thunder.
San Antonio at Denver – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -8, 205 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| San Antonio | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.56 | Team Pace | 98.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 25 | 14 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 22 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are usually a tough team to trust in daily fantasy basketball, but with a small slate and a favorable matchup, we have no choice. Luckily, the Spurs didn’t play last night and they don’t play again until Thursday. The starters (and Ginobili) should all see their usual complement of minutes tonight in an appealing matchup against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. They are also ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and have allowed opponents to score an average of 104.2 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8200, DK: $8500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24)
The Spurs draw the best matchup on the board, and as crazy as it sounds, it’s not a bad idea to load up on the Spurs tonight. Duncan leads the pack with his matchup against Kenneth Faried. The Nuggets have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards this season and have struggled to defend the paint for years. Duncan should be a lock for a double-double and I like his chances to top 40 fantasy points in this one.
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Ginobili is often the forgotten man in daily fantasy basketball, despite having another terrific season. There is a misconception that his minutes are difficult to predict, but that’s not the case. In his last eight games (not counting the one where he got hurt), he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Tiago Splitter (FD: $4400, DK: $3900 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 18)
While Kendrick Perkins is a min-salary option at center, I’d much rather pay a little extra for Splitter. He is a very talented big man that is facing a weak interior defense of the Nuggets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers this season. Splitter has scored at least 20 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight.
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7800, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Leonard has played 30 and 31 minutes in his first two games back from injury. He doesn’t appear to be on a minutes-restriction, as he has averaged 32 minutes per game this season. His price is a little higher than I’d like to pay, but small forward is a very thin position tonight after Kevin Durant. Leonard has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he typically plays well in fast-paced games.
Tony Parker (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 25)
Parker is a borderline elite play, given his cheap price tag. At $5,300 on FanDuel, he only needs to score 26.5 fantasy points to reach value. Even though he has been slumping since returning from his injury, he’s more than capable of putting up 26.5 fantasy points in a game where the Spurs are projected to score 106.5 points.
Denver
The Nuggets were blown off the floor on MLK Day. They were down by 20 points early in the first half and basically threw in the towel after that. They lost by a whopping 43 points to the Warriors. They will look to bounce back tonight at home against the Spurs. While Vegas has the Nuggets pegged as 8-point underdogs, the Nuggets have played well at home this season with a 12-9 record. While I don’t expect them to pick up a win here, they should be competitive. The issue here is their matchup. The Spurs are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 97.6 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 26-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $9000, DK: $8900 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Lawson is having an outstanding season, averaging 17 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. If the Nuggets are going to have any chance of pulling off the upset tonight, they are going to need a big outing from their point guard. Lawson will match up against Tony Parker, who is not an elite defender at this stage of his career. If you don’t want to pay up for Westbrook, Lawson is a viable option that comes with a discount.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Hickson (FD: $4700, DK: $5300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Hickson picked up two quick fouls yesterday against the Warriors and was quickly pulled after only four minutes of playing time. Coach Shaw never really looked his way again, as he finished the game with only 14 minutes. I’m not too concerned though, as Hickson had averaged 27 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action in his previous six games. I expect his minutes to go back up tonight against the Spurs, making him the best value play at power forward.