NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Phoenix at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -4, 209 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
| Phoenix | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.91 | Team Pace | 96.42 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 19 | 23 | 5 | 24 | Opp. Season | 14 | 12 | 16 | 8 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 5 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 30 | 19 | 13 | |
Phoenix
The Suns have won eight of their last ten games and are currently the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. These two teams met up earlier in the season and it was one of the best games of the season. Khris Middleton banked in a long three-pointer at the buzzer to give the Bucks the win. Vegas is expecting another close game tonight, as the Suns are listed as 4-point favorites. The total for the game is set at 209 points, which is much higher than the total from the Pistons/Spurs game. Both of these teams play at a quick pace (96+ possessions per 48 minutes). We can expect a competitive, high-scoring game tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 18-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8900, DK: $9300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24)
Bledsoe is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch where he averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals per game. His price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but on such a small slate, he’s easily the top target at shooting guard tonight. The Bucks have been susceptible to opposing shooting guards, as they have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to the position this season. Bledsoe has a very high usage rate in this offense and has the ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic (FD: $7200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Dragic typically flies under the proverbial fantasy radar. The presence of Bledsoe, Thomas, and Green hurt his fantasy appeal, but Dragic has been very productive recently. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. The most promising stat may be the fact that he has averaged 35 minutes per game during that stretch. On a night with only two games on the schedule, we must leave no stone unturned.
Markieff Morris (FD: $6100, DK: $6500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
After getting off to a blazing start this season, Morris has really cooled off over the last few weeks. Over his last ten games, he is only averaging 15 points and 4 rebounds per game. His price has come down considerably, but it’s to the point where we can’t expect the same production out of him that we were seeing a month ago. Morris is still in play tonight though, given the extremely small slate.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4600, DK: $4600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 12.1)
Tucker offers great value at small forward tonight. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. At his price point, 20 fantasy points would be more than welcome from fantasy owners tonight. Tucker also draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Bucks, who have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have been a pleasant surprise this season. They are 18-17 and look primed to make a run at the playoffs. While most of us may not agree with Jason Kidd’s rotations, he has this team playing well right now. The Bucks are 4-point underdogs tonight against the Suns in a game that features a total of 209 points. The Bucks are projected to score 102.5 points tonight, which is markedly higher than their season average of 99 points per game. It’s a rare evening where we may want to load up our fantasy rosters with Bucks players.
Injury Update: O.J. Mayo and Jared Dudley are both questionable for tonight’s game. If either these players are forced to sit, Jerryd Baylees, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo would see a small fantasy boost.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 20-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
It’s hard to find anything negative to say about Knight, so I won’t even try. He has been terrific for the Bucks this season and he continues to evolve as a point guard under head coach Jason Kidd. Knight is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game this season. He has a very high usage rate in the offense and has an ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. He draws a decent matchup against the Suns, who have been average against point guards this season. Knight is a reliable option that can be targeted in all league formats.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Antetokounmpo (one day I’ll be able to spell his name right without cheating) is one of my favorite plays at any position in this two game slate. Assuming he stays out of foul trouble, he should see a heavy dose of minutes tonight against the Suns. Over his last four games, he is averaging 32 minutes and 31 fantasy points per game. His ability to rack up steals and blocks really helps his fantasy appeal, especially now that he is seeing starter’s minutes.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5400, DK: $6000 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18)
The latest development with Larry Sanders is that he may not want to play basketball anymore. Either way, it doesn’t sound like he is going to be back on the floor anytime soon. Pachulia will continue to man the center position in his absence. Pachulia has made the most of his opportunities, averaging 13 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists per game over his last six. He should have another productive outing tonight against the Suns, who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Khris Middleton (FD: $4900, DK: $4800 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Middleton is one of those players that quietly plays well until us daily fantasy players start to notice. Once we do, he puts up a couple of duds and we all forget about him for a couple of weeks. This is one of those times where we are starting to take notice. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has averaged 30 minutes per game during that stretch.
Detroit at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 198 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
| Detroit | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.38 | Team Pace | 95.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Marco Belinelli | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 14 | Opp. Season | 11 | 15 | 7 | 27 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 23 | |
Detroit
The Pistons are not only winning, they are blowing teams out. They have won five games in a row by an average of 18.2 points per game. Granted, it hasn’t been against the stiffest of competition, but Stan Van Gundy has his team playing their best basketball of the season. If they can go into San Antonio and beat the Spurs tonight, people will really start to notice the Pistons. That’s a tall task though and Vegas has the Pistons listed as 7.5-point underdogs. The Spurs are typically a tough matchup in DFS, but again, there are only two games on tonight’s slate so it’s hard to fade any one team.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 21-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $6300, DK: $7100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
SVG, give the man some minutes! Over his last seven games, Monroe is averaging 29 fantasy points in only 26 minutes per game. I understand that the Pistons may not see Monroe as a part of their future, but at least give him some minutes to make him an attractive bargaining chip. My hope is that the bench will struggle a bit tonight, leaving SVG with no choice but to play Monroe starter’s minutes. His price is very affordable on FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Spurs, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Andre Drummond (FD: $9200, DK: $9500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Drummond has as much upside as any player on the docket tonight. Over his last nine games, he has topped 55 fantasy points two times and he has topped 40 fantasy points six times. The biggest concern with Drummond is that he is prone to foul trouble. While that’s a concern, he’s still the top fantasy option at any position tonight. The Spurs have not been great against opposing centers this season and Drummond should be able to dominate the glass on both ends of the floor. He’s going to cost you a pretty penny, but he may very well be worth it.
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings (FD: $7500, DK: $7600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
I’m not nearly as high on Jennings as I expect most people to be tonight. The only reason he is listed here is because there are only two games on the schedule and against, we must leave no stone unturned. While Jennings certainly provides good upside, he hasn’t played more than 31 minutes a single time in his last ten games. He has only played more than 30 minutes three times during that stretch. Add in the fact that his price has come way up and he is an easy fade for me tonight in cash games.
Jodie Meeks (FD: $5000, DK: $4500 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Most people will give credit to Josh Smith’s absence for the Pistons recent level of play, but Meeks deserves some credit as well. He has been terrific off the bench, averaging 23 fantasy points per game during this five-game winning streak. Meeks is still a risky fantasy option though, as his fantasy production is heavily dependent on scoring.
San Antonio
The Spurs are expecting to have Tony Parker back in the lineup tonight. It will be his first game since Christmas and only his fourth game since injuring his hamstring on December 5th. Rust is not an issue for Parker, but the Spurs may try to slowly ease him back into action, especially given how well Cory Joseph and Patty Mills have been playing.
The Spurs are 7.5-point favorites against the Pistons tonight in a game that features a total of 198 points. The Spurs are projected to score 103 points, which is right around their average for the season. The Pistons have been playing much better defensively, but they haven’t matched up against a top tier offense like the Spurs.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 10-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8700, DK: $9100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
There is often the mis-conception that the Spurs veterans don’t see reliable minutes on a nightly basis, but that’s not the case. It is true that Coach Popovich often tends to rest his players, but as long as they are in the lineup, they are going to see their usual complement of minutes unless the game is a huge blowout. For example, Duncan has played at least 29 minutes in each of the last 12 games that he has started. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s look at his matchup. The Pistons are an average rebounding team that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards this season (some of that is attributed to Josh Smith though). Fire up the “Big Fundamental” in all league formats tonight.
Secondary Plays
Danny Green (FD: $6200, DK: $5400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 18)
Green hasn’t exactly been reaching value lately, but he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. He has also averaged 35.5 minutes per game during that stretch. With Kawhi Leonard out again tonight, Green should see extended playing time once again. He makes a solid play on DraftKings, where he is listed at a bargain-bin price only $5,400.
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
I always love when the Spurs play on Thursday night so Charles Barkley can say, “Ginobiliiiiiiiiii.” Even with Parker back in the lineup, Ginobili should still see his 25 minutes tonight against the Pistons. He can do more with his 25 minutes per night than most players in the NBA can. He has 35 fantasy point type of upside and is reasonably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Marco Belinelli (FD: $4400, DK: $4300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
Belinelli has also seen an uptick in playing time with Kawhi Leonard out. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 32 minutes per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 20 fantasy points six times. He may not have a ton of upside, but he offers good value at his price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Tiago Splitter (FD: $4400, DK: $4100 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
There are basically three options at center tonight. You can pay up for Andre Drummond, or you can take the cheaper route with either Zaza Pachulia or Tiago Splitter. Splitter will likely have the lowest ownership level of the three, which is more than fine with me. Splitter is coming off of a season-high 28 minutes against the Wizards, which is promising. The Pistons have a very big front-court, which could bode well for his playing time tonight.