NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Memphis at Detroit – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 189.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Butler-Tolliver-Drummond
| Memphis | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.5 |  | Vegas Total | 189.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 92.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.27 | Team Pace | 95.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Caron Butler | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 16 | 17 | 29 | 29 | Opp. Season | 6 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 15 | |
Memphis
We have one ugly slate of games on tap for tonight. It’s not the quantity, it’s the quality. There are four possible blowouts and three games with totals under 197 points. The Grizzlies may decide to rest some starters tonight against the Pistons. Make sure to check the injury news throughout the day, especially as lineup lock approaches. They head to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ team that presents a mediocre fantasy matchup. The Pistons are ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 10th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7600, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
If the Grizzlies were going to rest players tonight against the Pistons, my money would be on Zach Randolph and Mike Conley both sitting out. Randolph played 39 minutes in last night’s game against the Nuggets and Conley is still dealing with his ankle injury. If Gasol is in the lineup, he immediately becomes one of the top plays at the center position tonight. Gasol’s price is depressed and he draws a terrific matchup against the Pistons, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $3800, DK: $3500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Lee is one of the least productive players of the Grizzlies while on the floor. He averages just over 0.60 fantasy points per minute this season, which is lower than any other starting shooting guard on the schedule tonight. The good news is that he averages just over 30 minutes per game this season. He has scored at least 15 fantasy points in four of his last five games and offers decent value at shooting guard tonight.
Beno Udrih (FD: $3700, DK: $3800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 20)
Udrih has not made the most of his opportunity to start for the injured Mike Conley. In his last three games, he has posted fantasy outings of 16, 21, and 18 fantasy points. That’s not terrible production from a player at his price point, but we expect more from him as a starter. If Mike Conley is out again tonight, Udrih would make an appealing value play once again.
Detroit
Andre Drummond was able to clear the league’s concussion protocol and he will suit up for tonight’s game. Greg Monroe on the other hand, has already been ruled out with a knee injury. Anthony Tolliver and Caron Butler should be in line for some extra run, while Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond may see a small boost in usage within the offense. The Pistons’ matchup against the Grizzlies as tough as they come. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 47-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.3 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
I never expected to have Jackson listed as an elite play against the best defense in the NBA, but here we are. Tonight’s slate doesn’t offer much in terms of options and Jackson will likely see a sizable boost in usage with Greg Monroe out of the lineup. Jackson’s price is also depressed, which lowers his value expectation. He needs roughly 32 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he can certainly accomplish in a game where he may have to shoulder the load offensively.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8300, DK: $7500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Drummond is more of a tournament play tonight, unless of course Marc Gasol is rested by the Grizzlies. Gasol is arguably the best defensive center in the NBA and his absence could open the door for a big game from Drummond. Drummond also sees a fantasy boost with Greg Monroe out. He could see an uptick in both minutes and usage tonight against the Grizzlies.
Anthony Tolliver (FD: $3600, DK: $3100 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
Tolliver will likely draw the start for Greg Monroe tonight. Tolliver has been productive off the bench this season and could push for 30 minutes of playing time tonight against the Grizzlies. He is close to the bare-minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means we don’t need a huge game from him in order to meet value expectations.
San Antonio at New York – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 196.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Thomas-Amundson-Bargnani
| San Antonio | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 91.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.97 | Team Pace | 93.40 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Lance Thomas | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 22 | Opp. Season | 18 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 21 | 17 | 27 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 16 | 2 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs still have a lot to play for at this point in the season. They are currently sitting in the sixth-seed in the West, but are only three games out of the third-seed. I’d be surprised to see the Spurs rest any of their starters tonight, but it’s worth noting that this is the first game in a back-to-back for the defending champions. The Spurs head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks tomorrow night. If the Spurs get ahead early, we can expect their starters to be limited, which hurts the fantasy appeal of the team as a whole.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 13-53
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8500, DK: $8600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
In Vegas they like to say, “never leave a heater.” That’s how I feel about Leonard right now. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last eight games, averaging 41.5 fantasy points per contest during that stretch. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he’s a strong play at a position that really lacks options tonight. Leonard is the one Spurs’ player that deserves consideration in both cash games and tournaments tonight against the Knicks.
Secondary Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $6500, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Much like Leonard, Parker is also playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last six games, Parker is averaging 23 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists per contest. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in every game during that stretch and he should keep the streak alive tonight against the Knicks. As a team, the Knicks have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Danny Green (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Green is a little too inconsistent to use in cash games, but he provides great upside at his price point. He deservers consideration in tournaments tonight. Green is averaging 30 fantasy points per game over his last three and he draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
New York
The Knicks currently own the worst record in the entire NBA. They have absolutely nothing to play for at this point, as each additional win could cost them ping-pong balls in the lottery. The Knicks are double-digit underdogs tonight against the Spurs, who are ranked in the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks are only projected to score 92 points tonight, which is one of the lowest team totals on the board.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 41-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Alexey Shved (FD: $6000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 25.6)
If you were to tell me a month ago that I’d be recommending Shved as an elite play against the Spurs at a price above $6,000, I would have thought that you were crazy. The matchup is less than ideal, but Shved has been on a tear over his last six games, averaging 31.4 fantasy points in 30 minutes per contest. He is technically the Knicks’ starting shooting guard, but he plays a ton of point guard in this offense. As crazy as it sounds, I prefer Shved over Tony Parker tonight, as his minutes are more secure.
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $5400, DK: $6100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
The Bargnani craze has died down, but he’s still a serviceable mid-range option at power forward. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 25.5 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. He’s listed as a secondary play tonight because of the matchup. The Spurs have really clamped down against centers recently, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position over the last three weeks.
Milwaukee at New Orleans – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 193 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
| Milwaukee | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 93.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 9 | Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 21 | 14 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 24 | 7 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks set off a Twitter bomb on Saturday night, with the news that Michael Carter-Williams would be a late-scratch. After being listed as a starter by the beat writers, MCW was then ruled out just before tip-off. At that point, he was locked into lineups, even in late-swap sites. That’s the concern when we get to this point of the season and it only emphasizes the importance of constantly checking for injury updates. The Bucks head to New Orleans to take on a slow-paced Pelicans team tonight. The Bucks are 7-point underdogs with their team total set at only 93 points.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 36-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27)
If nothing else, daily fantasy sports teaches us the importance of forgiveness. There is absolutely nothing that can come from holding a grudge against MCW or the Bucks for the late scratch the other night. MCW is expected to return to the lineup tonight against the Pelicans. Before the incident on Saturday, MCW had strung together an impressive run of fantasy outings. In his previous three contests, he had averaged 40 fantasy points per game.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
While we should never use the sample size of a single game as a determining factor in daily fantasy, it’s hard to ignore the 50-burger that Giannis dropped on the Pelicans a week ago. He was terrific on both ends of the floor, posting a stat line of 29 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. He should see minutes in the upper 30’s again tonight.
New Orleans
The Pelicans can tie the Oklahoma City Thunder for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoffs with a win over the Bucks tonight. Everyone expected the Pelicans to fall off after the All-Star Break, but they’ve really come together and have played some great basketball over the last month of play. While I like their chances of picking up a win, tonight’s matchup against the Bucks is not a favorable one to target for fantasy production. The Bucks are ranked in the top five in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 34-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $12300, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Anthony Davis vs. Ersan Ilyasova – Round 2. In their first match, Davis finished with a decent stat line of 43 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. It was no match for Ilyasova’s stat line of 6 points and 1 rebound. All kidding aside, this is one of the biggest mismatches in the NBA. Davis should absolutely dominate on both ends of the floor tonight. He is a very risky fade tonight, especially in cash games.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8400, DK: $7500) and Eric Gordon (FD: $6100, DK: $6000) are both fine secondary options, but both are a little overpriced for their matchup against the defensive-minded Bucks.
Orlando at Houston – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Houston -11.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Dedmon-Vucevic
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
| Orlando | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.91 | Team Pace | 99.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Dewayne Dedmon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 21 | Opp. Season | 23 | 9 | 30 | 20 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 26 | 21 | 30 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 30 | 27 | 9 | 8 | |
Orlando
The Magic have lost four games in a row and eight of their last ten. They have struggled on the road this season, which will likely continue tonight, as they head to Houston to take on the Rockets. The Magic are 11.5-point underdogs in a game that features a relatively high total. Even though they are huge underdogs, the Magic are still projected to score 96 points tonight, which is exactly what they average per game on the season. The hope here is that the Magic are able to keep this game close, as it is projected as the highest scoring game of the night.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 44-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8400, DK: $8300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Vucevic is coming off of a strong three-game stretch, where he averaged 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who will be without their best low-post defender in Dwight Howard. Over the last three weeks, the Rockets have allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than any other team in the NBA.
Tobias Harris (FD: $6700, DK: $6900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Harris has been very productive recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. His price has come up across the industry, but he should be able to get close to value expectations tonight against the Rockets. On the season, the Rockets have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $7700, DK: $7700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25)
It’s tough to pay the premium for Oladipo, but his recent production warrants the expensive salary. Over his last seven games, Oladipo is averaging 38 fantasy points per contest. The statistic that really stands out during that stretch is that he is averaging close to 40 minutes per game. His salary is expensive, but he should be in for another productive outing, as he takes on James Harden and the Rockets.
Houston
The Rockets have won six of their last ten games. The next month of the season is very important for this team, as they could realistically finish as high as second in the West, or drop down as low seventh. They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight over the Magic, who have not played well recently. This is a favorable matchup for sure, but it may not be as favorable as the numbers below would suggest. The Magic play at a much slower pace these days, ranking in the bottom ten in pace of play over the last month of the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 21-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10800, DK: $10800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Harden is priced under $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s going to be difficult fitting both Harden and Anthony Davis in a single lineup, but I’m certainly going to try. Both are tough fades on a night that features such a disappointing slate of games. Harden has topped 50 fantasy points in three of his last seven games and gets to face a Magic team that is ranked dead last against shooting guards over the last week of play.
Terrence Jones (FD: $6700, DK: $7000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
T-Jones! Who? T-Jones! Who? T-Jones! Anyone else remember Mike Jones?
Thanks to Mr. Jones, I have no choice but to say WHO every time I hear someone with the last name of Jones. Terrence Jones has topped 30 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and should be able to reach that mark again tonight. On the season, the Magic are ranked 20th against power forwards and 26th in rebounding differential. Hopefully he can be like Mike and Stay Flossin tonight.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.7)
Ariza is one of the safer options at small forward tonight. He has played well recently, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Magic defense that has allowed more fantasy points to opposing shooting guards than any team in the NBA this season.
Charlotte at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -10.5, 199 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Charlotte | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.57 | Team Pace | 96.85 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 15 | 27 | 17 | 13 | Opp. Season | 9 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 14 | 23 | 11 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 10 | 16 | |
Charlotte
As I was checking the box scores last night, I couldn’t believe my eyes at what my NBA Gametime app was telling me. With just over three minutes left in the THIRD QUARTER, the Hornets had only scored 39 points. It took the Celtics less than 13 minutes to put up 39 points last night. Granted, the Jazz defense is stifling with Rudy Gobert protecting the rim, but that was one awful offensive outing from Charlotte. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Clippers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 42-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams (FD: $4300, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Cody Zeller is not expected to play tonight, which means Williams will draw another start at power forward. He has played well over his last three games, averaging 20 fantasy points per contest. He is a serviceable value play if you are looking for some salary cap relief at power forward.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have lost five of their last ten games and have fallen all the way down to the seventh-seed in the West. The good news is that they have Blake Griffin back in the lineup for the stretch run. The Clippers should be able to pick up a win tonight over a Hornets’ team that is playing in the tail end of back-to-back road games. The Clippers are 10.5-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 105 points. The high team total is a bit misleading though, as the Hornets are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 29-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10200, DK: $9700), Blake Griffin (FD: $9300, DK: $9000), and DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9300, DK: $8800) are all viable secondary options tonight against the Hornets. They aren’t must plays by any means though, as Paul and Jordan are both overpriced thanks to their recent level of production, while Griffin is only playing in his second game back from injury.