NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-11-19 18:34:29

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Minnesota at Washington

• Vegas Line – Minnesota -3, 204 Over/Under
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
• Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Webster-Hilario-Gortat

Minnesota

Both of these teams like to push the tempo. The Wolves are at the top of the league in both pace of play (102) and points scored per game (108). Vegas likes this game to be a close, high scoring game which is always good news from a fantasy perspective. The Wizards are giving up over 104 points per game and only have one DvP ranking in the top 10. They are ranked 8th against PG’s, but really struggle to defend the other positions. There are a few different options in this one, but I think targeting the two bigs is the way to go.

• Kevin Love – Love is ranked 4th in the league in touches per game at 88. That is by far the highest amount of touches for any position other than PG. It really just shows you how involved he is on offense. Love averages more touches per game than Rubio. Love has a great matchup against the Wizards who are ranked 25th against PF’s. Love should easily reach his 26, 12, and 4 averages in this favorable matchup.

• Nikola Pekovic – Pek has scored 25 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games and is finally starting to hit his stride after a slow start to the season. While Gortat has been a good defender in the past, the Wizards have such a bad team defense that Gortat has had a hard time defending Centers. The Wizards are ranked 22nd against opposing Centers.

Washington

The Wizards are playing at a quick pace with 99 possessions per 48 minutes, but their biggest problem is efficiency. They are averaging 100 points per game which isn’t bad, but you’d like to see that number be a little higher with the pace that they play with. The Wizards will be without Trevor Ariza and Al Harrington tonight so you can give a boost to Martell Webster, Bradley Beal, and Jan Vesely. John Wall is also worth a look tonight, he excels in fast-paced games and should be able to create some shots for both he and his teammates in the open floor.

• Martell Webster – Webster will get the start at SF tonight and should see 30+ minutes with Ariza out. In his last two games, Webster is averaging 34 FP’s per game. His price is cheap across the board and he should be one of the more popular picks of the night. He has a solid matchup, a cheap price tag, and nice upside.

• Bradley Beal – Beal loses value on sites that negate for missed shots due to his low shooting %, but is in play on the rest of the sites. With Ariza out, he should see a slight uptick in both minutes and shot attempts. I love the matchup against Kevin Martin who is an average defender at best. Beal’s biggest problem is that he doesn’t contribute much fantasy-wise other than points, but hopefully he can pick up a few rebounds and assists.

New York at Detroit

• Vegas Line – Detroit -4, 200 Over/Under
• New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Shumpert-Anthony-Bargnani
• Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

New York

The Knicks travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons tonight. Neither of these teams play at a very quick pace, but Vegas has this game set with a total of 200 points so they expect it to be high scoring. When in doubt, trust the line. The Knicks are still without Tyson Chandler and both Andrea Bargnani and Carmelo Anthony have stepped up big in his absence. There is talk about moving J.R. Smith back to the bench tonight, but I don’t think it hurts his fantasy value because he should see 30+ minutes either way. I’ll be avoiding Raymond Felton tonight though, he just hasn’t been that aggressive player that we’ve seen in years past.

• Carmelo Anthony – It will be interesting to see which team adjusts their lineup to match up with the other. Right now the Knicks start Melo at the PF which means he would be matched up with Greg Monroe. That’s a bad matchup for both defenses as Melo could easily score on Monroe and Monroe would post Melo up all day. If the matchup stays this way, I love the upside for Melo tonight. He’s playing well and has been much more aggressive on the glass with Chandler out.

• Andrea Bargnani – Here is another mismatch in my eyes. While Andre Drummond is a great low post defender, he is not used to guarding his man on the perimeter. Bargnani doesn’t get his points down in the paint, he is used in pick and pop situations. I think Drummond will have a hard time breaking his habit of defending the paint.

Detroit

The Pistons have an excellent starting five, yet they are now 3-6 after awful back to back losses to the Kings and Lakers. They are having the same problem as the Nets, too many star players that haven’t learned how to play with each other. If you look at the big 4’s (Jennings, Smith, Drummond, Monroe) game logs, you will see a lot of variance in their output on a nightly basis. Variance is not something that you want to see if you are playing in H2H or 50/50 games.

For tonight’s matchup against the Knicks, I would label the Pistons as GPP plays only. I would maybe take a shot on Brandon Jennings, but the three big men have been too inconsistent for me to trust any one of them in my cash games.

Atlanta at Miami

• Vegas Line – Miami -9.5, 206.5 Over/Under
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh

Atlanta

The Hawks are playing at a quick pace this season (98) but are running into a buzz saw that is the Heat’s defense. If you look at the DvP rankings in the last 15 days, you will see that the Heat rank in the top 13 against every single position including DvP rankings in the top 4 against PG’s and SF’s. If it wasn’t for an injury, I would say to avoid the Hawks tonight. However, Paul Millsap and Lou Williams have both been ruled out of tonight’s game which opens up both minutes and options here.

• Al Horford – The one weakness in the Heat’s defense is at the Center position. Bosh has always been more of a PF than a Center and he can struggle with talented big men. With Millsap sitting this one out, look for Horford to play a ton of minutes and pick up some extra production along the way.

• Gustavo Ayon – Ayon has only played two games this season, but he’s averaging over 17 FP’s per game in those two contests and will draw the start tonight with Millsap out. Ayon probably won’t see over 25 minutes as this is only his 3rd game, but he is a nice minimum salary option with decent upside.

Miami

The Heat are back to their winning ways, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and they’ve done it in dominating fashion. They are favored by 9.5 tonight which is typically right around the range that you have to start factoring in a potential blowout. Now that Millsap is out, that only adds to the risk. Lebron James has been putting up very mediocre numbers by his standards this season and I’m not paying up for him when you can take Kevin Love for around the same price.

• Dwyane Wade – This pick makes me a little nervous, but everything points to him being in a good spot tonight. Wade is averaging over 34 FP’s per game at home this season, the Hawks are ranked 23rd against SG’s, and Wade is primed for a bounce back game after only scoring 4 points against the Bobcats the other night.

Boston at Houston

• Vegas Line – Houston -11, 203.5 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Bass-Olynyk
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Boston

The Celtics have a great matchup against the Rockets tonight who are giving up 106 points per game and are ranked in the bottom 11 against every single position this season. The only issue here is the possible blowout, but I think that hurts the Rockets players more than the Celtics players. The C’s are a team that is full of value plays. Even their most expensive player, Jeff Green, is now becoming a value player. It sounds like Vitor Faverani will get the start at Center again tonight after a big performance in his last game, but I think it’s a tough spot for both Faverani and Olynyk. I could see them both getting into foul trouble against Dwight.

• Jordan Crawford – Crawford has really taken over as the teams top option on offense. He’s scored over 20 FP’s in 6 straight games and should easily top that number again tonight against this bad defense. Crawford gets his fantasy points in a variety of ways so even when his shot isn’t falling, he can still produce.

• Jeff Green – Green’s price tag is dropping and it’s dropping fast. On StarStreet, he is only $8,000 which is just absurdly low. The matchup lines up well for him and I think this is the perfect time to buy low. While he hasn’t been posting great numbers, he’s played well on the road and has the potential to top 30 FP’s any night.

Houston

The Rockets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league (100) and are averaging 108 points per game. They have a nice matchup against the Celtics, but you do have to factor in the blowout in this one. Two positions that I would definitely stay away from tonight are SG and SF. The Celtics DvP rankings against PG’s and SF’s are thanks to the defense of Avery Bradley and Jeff Green. While Bradley typically guards PG’s, he will be on Harden tonight and Crawford will likely take Beverley.

• Dwight Howard – Even with the potential blowout, the matchup lines up well for Dwight. The Celtics have really struggled to defend Centers this season and Dwight has a huge advantage in his matchup against Faverani. The Rockets should exploit this matchup early and often.

• Patrick Beverley – This is a great example of how you need to read between the lines with the DvP rankings. Bradley is the reason why the Celtics have a good ranking, but most likely he won’t be guarding the Rockets PG because the C’s are going to put their best defender on Harden. That means that Beverley will be matched up against Jordan Crawford who is a below average defender.

Phoenix at Sacramento

• Vegas Line – Sacramento -1.5, 192.5 Over/Under
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Vasquez-McLemore-Mbah a Moute-Thompson-Cousins

Phoenix

The Suns are finally getting healthy and they have a 4 game stretch here where they could easily get a nice little winning streak going. Goran Dragic is back in the mix and his price is depressed across the board. It’s only a matter of time before his price rises back up and you have to love his matchup against the Kings. The big men of the Suns have been up and down. Channing Frye continues to get the start at PF, but Markieff Morris continues to be the better fantasy option.

• Eric Bledose – When you talk about players with high upside, Bledsoe has to be close to the top of that list. He already has 6 games this season with 35 or more fantasy points. He has a great matchup against whatever SG the Kings decide to throw at him.

Sacramento

The Kings are near the bottom of the league in both pace of play (94) and points scored per game (93). Their coach has a new rotation every single night which really makes it hard to predict an individual’s fantasy value each night. At this point, I think the only viable option on the Kings is Isaiah Thomas. He is the only player that is seeing consistent minutes and consistent production. I don’t mind taking a shot on DeMarcus Cousins in a GPP, but the risk of him seeing limited minutes is too high for me to trust him in a cash game. The Kings are a mess right now and it’s best to just steer clear for now.