NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: DvP data is separated into Guards, Forwards, and Centers. Therefore PG and SG DvP data will be identical. This is temporary and will be separated soon. Also, any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Milwaukee at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -3.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Dudley-Middleton-Parker-Sanders
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Miles-Hill-Scola-Hibbert
| Milwaukee | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.24 | Team Pace | 93.87 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Jared Dudley | Khris Middleton | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | Luis Scola | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 21 | Opp. Season | 25 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 29 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks and Pacers square off tonight in what should be a slow-paced, low scoring game. The total is set at only 191.5 points which is one of the lowest totals on the board. The Bucks have a lot of young talent on their team, but that just seems like a nice way to say that they aren’t very good, at least right now. They have opened the season 1-2 and haven’t had any consistent production from their players outside of Brandon Knight.
The Pacers are currently short-handed and are doing their best to keep the game in the half-court in order to keep games close. They are currently averaging 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes which is the fifth slowest pace in the league. The Bucks aren’t must plays by any means, but the Pacers have given up big fantasy outings to opposing PGs and Centers this season.
Prime Plays
Brandon Knight – Knight has been the one reliable fantasy option on the Bucks through their first three games. He is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 10 assists per game with a very high usage rate of 25.5. He’s a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and we should see more of the same from him tonight against the Pacers who have given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season.
Secondary Plays
Larry Sanders – Sanders is limited offensively, but he’s a great rebounder and one of the best shot-blockers in the game. He’s averaging 9 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game this season and should put up a similar stat line tonight against the Pacers. He offers nice upside if you want some salary cap relief at the center position.
Indiana
The Pacers are trying to tread water while waiting for their starters to get healthy. A makeshift starting five of Donald Sloan, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, Luis Scola, and Roy Hibbert just isn’t going to get it done in the NBA. It sounds like the Pacers will have to stick with that lineup for the foreseeable future though as David West, George Hill, and C.J. Watson are all out for tonight’s game against the Bucks. Rodney Stuckey is currently listed as questionable after tweaking his foot injury in their last game.
While I’m not sold on the Pacers as a team this season, daily fantasy basketball is all about opportunity and until the Pacers get healthy, the backups are going to continue to see extended playing time. Their matchup against the Bucks is a favorable one. The Bucks have made an effort to push the pace this season as they have averaged 100.2 possessions per 48 minutes. Based on the line and the total, the Pacers are projected to score 97.5 points which is much higher than their season average of 94.7.
Prime Plays
C.J. Miles – Miles doesn’t do much on the floor besides score which makes him a very volatile fantasy play. That said, his price across the industry is cheap enough that he’s worth the risk tonight against the Bucks. Miles is averaging 13 points on 14 shot attempts per game. He should continue to see extended playing time with all of the Pacers injuries and may reach value on points alone. Miles is a great candidate to reach 6x or 7x salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Donald Sloan – Sloan is taking full advantage of the injuries to George Hill and C.J. Watson. In his three starts this season, the third-string PG is averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. Sloan is seeing all of the minutes he can handle and there’s no reason to expect that to change tonight against the Bucks who have been one of the faster-paced teams in the league this season. Sloan’s price has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production and you can still buy low on him tonight.
Secondary Plays
Chris Copeland – Even though Copeland is coming off of the bench, he is playing a starter’s share of minutes which is really all that matters. In the first three games, he is averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists in 31 minutes per game.
Houston at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -1.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Canaan-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-Williams-Bosh
| Houston | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.89 | Team Pace | 96.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Season | 9 | 9 | 20 | 20 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 20 | 12 | |
Houston
The Rockets pulled off an easy win against the Sixers last night, but luckily for us, they let the Sixers stay within striking distance which gave the starters a full complement of minutes. Tonight they head to Miami to take on the Heat in what should be a high scoring game. Both of these teams are right around the league-average in pace of play this season and both are ranked in the top six in offensive efficiency. The total is set at 201 points, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game turn into a track meet where both teams score over 100 points. Fast-paced, high-scoring games that are expected to be close are Grade-A fantasy material.
Patrick Beverley missed last night’s game with a hamstring injury after going through the Rockets’ morning shootaround. His status for tonight’s game has not been determined, but if he is forced to sit out, Isaiah Canaan would make a strong plug and play at PG. In Beverley’s absence, he has averaged 11 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals per game.
Prime Plays
James Harden – Harden is coming off of a monster fantasy outing last night against the Sixers. He put up 35 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists on route to his second 50+ fantasy point (FD scoring) outing in a row. Harden has as much upside as any player in the NBA not named Anthony Davis and his usage rate has been off the charts this season. He has a usage rate of 32.6 which is the fourth highest of any player in the NBA. High usage on a high scoring offense is a recipe for big fantasy outings and we can expect another one from Harden tonight against the Heat.
Secondary Plays
Terrence Jones – Jones was a big letdown last night against the Sixers, but that’s just something that we have to live with as he is the third option in this offense. Jones is in a prime spot for a bounce back tonight against Shawne Williams and the Heat.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza got off to a hot start in last night’s win with 14 points in the first quarter. He finished with his best game of the season as he posted 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. He’s still the third or fourth option offensively though so he may be better suited as a tournament play tonight.
Miami
The Heat haven’t skipped a beat without LeBron James. They are one of four undefeated teams left in the NBA after they’ve picked up three wins against the Wizards, Sixers, and Raptors. The Heat are off to such a fast start thanks to their efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. The Heat are ranked third in that category only behind the Mavericks and the Nets. Tonight’s matchup against the Rockets is a favorable one as the Rockets are one of the faster-paced teams in the league.
Prime Plays
Chris Bosh – We are seeing a reinvigorated Bosh this season. He’s now the focal point of the Heat offense (26.9 usage rate), rather than being second fiddle to LeBron James and Dwyane Wade last season. Bosh is averaging almost five more shot attempts per game and he is finally starting to post some respectable rebounding totals. On the season, he is averaging 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. While his matchup against Dwight Howard may look tough on paper, Bosh stretches the floor and does most of his scoring on the perimeter.
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade – Wade is coming off of his best performance of the season. He put up 19 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 blocks in 31 minutes of play against the Raptors. His usage rate (28.7) has gone way up this season and he finds himself in a prime matchup against James Harden who is one of the worst defenders in the league.
Shawne Williams – Williams is averaging 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season. As long as he continues to see around 30 minutes of playing time per night, he will continue to be a strong value play.
Washington at New York
- Vegas Line – New York -1, 190.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Shumpert-Anthony-Acy-Dalembert
| Washington | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.29 | Team Pace | 88.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Iman Shumpert | Carmelo Anthony | Quincy Acy | Samuel Dalembert | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 3 | Opp. Season | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | |
Washington
The Wizards are a force to reckon with this season. They are a very talented team that is ready to take that next step. They have opened the season 2-1 with victories over the Magic and the Bucks. Tonight they head to Madison Square Garden to take on the roller-coaster Knicks. This is one of four games on the schedule tonight with a total right around 190 points. The Knicks have had the slowest pace (88.6 possessions per 48 minutes) of any team in the NBA this season. They have a new roster, a new offense, and are missing their starting PG. An expected slow pace of play does hurt the Wizards fantasy appeal as a whole.
Prime Plays
John Wall – Wall seems to be flying under the radar this season despite putting up 49+ fantasy point efforts (FD scoring) in back to back games. There’s no reason to fade Wall at this point as he has a 28.6 usage rate to go along with his 22 points and 11 assists per game. Wall has a great matchup against Shane Larkin and the Knicks who have been average at defending the position this season.
Secondary Plays
Nene Hilario – After missing the first game of the season, Nene has looked good in his last two games averaging 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in 34 minutes per game. Nene is still moderately priced and has a nice matchup against Quincy Acy. I prefer Nene over Gortat tonight as Samuel Dalembert is an excellent low post defender.
New York
After getting trounced by the Bulls in their opener, the Knicks have bounced back with strong wins over the Cavs and the Hornets. They still seem to be struggling offensively as they try to use the triangle offense for the first couple of quarters and eventually fall back into the ‘give the ball to Carmelo Anthony and hope he scores’ offense.
Tonight’s matchup against the Wizards is less than appealing. As you can see from the tables above, the Wizards are a very good team defensively. They are currently ranked between 1st and 3rd in defending the PG, SG, SF, and PF positions. Carmelo Anthony is not on my list of targets tonight, but there are a couple of value plays that should be on your radar.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Shane Larkin – If you are targeting any Knicks tonight, target the cheap value options. Larkin has averaged 21 fantasy points per game this season in Calderon’s absence and should see a full complement of minutes again tonight.
Iman Shumpert – Shumpert is an interesting tournament play tonight. He seems to underwhelm more often than not, but he has nice upside as he can get hot offensively and he tends to be very aggressive on the defensive end of the floor.
Oklahoma City at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -11.5, 195 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Telfair-Jackson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas
| Oklahoma City | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.8 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.59 | Team Pace | 96.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Sebastian Telfair | Reggie Jackson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Patrick Patterson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 25 | Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 23 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder can’t seem to catch a break. Reggie Jackson made his debut last night to give the Thunder nine active players, but they were quickly back down to eight active players after Andre Roberson left the game with a foot injury. He will join Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeremy Lamb, and Anthony Morrow on the inactive list for tonight’s game against the Raptors. Even though the matchup isn’t great, the Thunder starters will be forced to play major minutes again tonight.
Prime Plays
Reggie Jackson – Jackson made his season debut last night against the Nets and the Thunder wasted no time throwing him into the fire. Jackson played 42 minutes and finished with 23 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and a block. He was expected to take over the Russell Westbrook role and he did just that as he had a usage rate of 29.7 last night. The Thunder are still extremely short-handed and Jackson is going to be asked to be the go-to guy in this offense. This may be the last night to target Jackson before his price sky-rockets.
Serge Ibaka – Despite the Thunder only having eight active players, Ibaka minutes are seemingly being limited by Scott Brooks. This is a recurring theme with Brooks and Ibaka. As a daily fantasy player, it’s extremely frustrating to see Ibaka play less than 33 minutes in each of their first three games. That said, Ibaka still makes a nice play tonight as he is a huge part of this offense with Westbrook and Durant out. It’s only a matter of time before Ibaka has a huge fantasy outing and it could very well come tonight against the Raptors.
Secondary Plays
Steven Adams – Adams is in play for two reasons: opportunity and value. Adams is averaging 29 minutes per game and is still one of the cheapest center options available.
Perry Jones – Jones hurt his knee last night, but is expected to be in the lineup tonight. While Reggie Jackson being back does hurt his fantasy appeal, he’s still worth a look as a tournament play tonight for the short-handed Thunder.
Toronto
The Raptors have opened their season with a 2-1 record. They have played at an average pace, but are averaging 106.3 points per game thanks to a very efficient offense. The Raptors come into tonight’s game as 11.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 195 points. The Raptors should have no problems on the offensive end as they are facing a short-handed Thunder ball club that will likely be tired as they are playing the second-half of a back-to-back. The only concern here is that this game could potentially turn into a blowout.
Amir Johnson missed the Raptors last game with an ankle injury and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Patrick Patterson ended up getting the start at PF, but he failed to get another going on Sunday. If Johnson is forced to miss tonight’s game, expect a much better performance from Patterson as he averaged 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 assist per game in spot starts last season.
Prime Plays
DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan typically flies under the radar because he is in that no-mans land for SGs. Most people tend to pay up for guys like James Harden or they choose to save some cap space with a cheaper SG option. At this point, there’s no reason to fade DeRozan as has averaged 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists in the first three games of the season. He’s a very safe play in cash games thanks to his high floor. He’s in a solid matchup against the short-handed Thunder team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back.
Secondary Plays
Kyle Lowry – Lowry is another player that has a very high floor. He contributes in so many different ways that he rarely has awful fantasy outings. Expect another solid all-around game from Lowry tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas – Big Val has played extremely well this season and he’s done it in fairly limited minutes. He is averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Give him a small boost if Amir Johnson is unable to play tonight.
Charlotte at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -3, 191 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Stephenson-Williams-Jefferson
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
| Charlotte | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.10 | Team Pace | 97.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gary Neal | Lance Stephenson | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 27 | Opp. Season | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have had a tough time scoring this season. They are only averaging 90 points per game and are currently the second least efficient team offensively. A big part of that has to do with the acquisition of Lance Stephenson. He’s a great young player, but it may take some time for this offense to gel. One of the biggest issues that I have noticed is that Al Jefferson’s usage rate is way down from last season. The Hornets need to feed their talented big man the ball in order to create some open shots for their shooters.
Tonight the Hornets travel to New Orleans to take on the former Hornets who are now the Pelicans. The new Hornets are 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 191 points. The Pelicans have been solid defensively as they have held their opponents to 95 points per game. They have good perimeter defenders and two of the best rim protectors in the NBA. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will miss tonight’s game which means Gerald Henderson will start in his place. Gilchrist’s absence also gives a small boost to Lance Stephenson.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson – Last season, it was easy to predict where the Hornets’ offensive production was going to come from. It was either going to be Jefferson, Walker, or both. Now that Lance Stephenson is in the mix, things have changed a bit. Jefferson’s usage rate is down, but it’s still at 24.3 this season which is very high for a center. The only thing holding him back from being a ‘prime play’ is his matchup against the bigs of the Pelicans.
Lance Stephenson – Stephenson is coming off of his best game of the season. He almost put up a triple-double against the Knicks as he finished with 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists. He makes for an interesting tournament play tonight against the Pelicans.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are only 1-2 to start the season, but you can’t fault them for losing to the Mavericks and the Grizzlies who are two of the best teams in the Western Conference. They have a good chance to get back to .500 tonight against the Hornets at home. The Hornets own a very stout defense though. In addition to holding their opponents to 91 points per game this season, the Hornets are ranked in the top ten at defending all five positions on the floor. The good news is that this is a home game where the statisticians like to hand out phantom steals, blocks, rebounds, and assists.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – Davis has more upside than any player in the NBA. That was evidenced by his first two games of the season when he put up 73 and 59 fantasy points (FD scoring). Davis was quiet in last night’s loss to the Grizzlies, but we can’t hold that against him as the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. He should bounce back nicely tonight against the Hornets who don’t have the same interior defense that the Grizzlies do. Expect another monster double-double from The Brow.
Secondary Plays
NONE