NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 4th - Page Two
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Orlando at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -12.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Orlando | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.00 | Team Proj. | 101.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.09 | Team Pace | 95.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Season | 22 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 24 | 26 | |
Orlando
The Magic are not off to the start that they were hoping for. They are 0-3 on the season and have lost each game by an average of 12.3 points. That differential may not get any better tonight as the Magic head to Chicago to take on one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls play at a slow pace and own a top three defense. That does not bode well for the Magic tonight who are projected to score 89 points which is by far the lowest of any team on the schedule tonight. There is no reason to target the Magic players tonight in what will likely be another blowout.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Chicago
There are two injuries to keep your eye on tonight with the Bulls. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are both currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Magic. If they are forced to sit, give a boost to Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks, Pau Gasol, and Taj Gibson. If Rose and Noah end up playing, it may be best to avoid the Bulls altogether as this game could easily turn into a blowout.
In terms of the matchup, this is a good spot for the Bulls as the Magic are allowing opponents to score 104.7 points per game this season. The Magic are also ranked 22nd or worse at defending all five positions on the floor (fantasy points allowed). While Coach Thibs has been known to keep his starters in longer than necessary, he’ll likely take a more cautious approach this season, especially considering the injury history of some of his players.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol – Gasol has fit in nicely in this Bulls offense and he’s actually been pretty solid on the defensive end as well. Gasol is averaging 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. If Noah is forced to sit tonight, fire up Gasol as an excellent PF play.
Cleveland at Portland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -2.5, 202 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Waiters-James-Love-Varejao
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Cleveland | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.50 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.25 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.61 | Team Pace | 95.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Dion Waiters | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 20 | Opp. Season | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 6 | |
Cleveland
The Cavs head to Portland to take on the Blazers in what should be one of the best games of the night. The new-look Cavs are coming off of a strong win in Chicago and will look to make it two in a row tonight against the Blazers who are very tough at home. The Cavs are 2.5-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 204 points. The Cavs continue to be a tough team to predict on a nightly basis as they are can get production from a number of different players. We keep waiting for a LeBron-lead team to be near the top of the league in pace of play, but so far that hasn’t been the case this season as the Cavs are only averaging 92.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
Prime Plays
Kyrie Irving – Irving’s assists are down a little this season, but the good news is that he is still getting up his shots. Through the first two games, Irving is averaging 23 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists with 16 shot attempts per game. It’s hard to justify paying the expensive price for LeBron tonight with James Harden and Anthony Davis both in favorable matchups. Irving offers a much cheaper source of exposure to the Cavs. Plus, the Blazers have had problems defending the PG position in the past.
Secondary Plays
LeBron James – As mentioned above, I prefer Harden or Davis tonight if you are paying up for a superstar. That said, you can never completely rule out the best player in the world.
Kevin Love – Love is off to a solid start this season. He is averaging 18 points and 15 rebounds per game and so far it appears that there is enough room at the table for everyone to eat.
Portland
The Blazers are 1-2 after losing back-to-back games against the Kings and the Warriors. They will try to end their slide tonight against the most talented team in the NBA. I like their chances of pulling off a win tonight as they were 31-10 at home last season. In terms of the matchup, it’s not great in terms of potential fantasy production. The Cavs have been one of the slower-paced teams in the league and are ranked in the top twelve at defending all five positions on the floor.
Prime Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge – I have a sneaky suspicion that Aldridge is going to be overlooked by the masses tonight despite a terrific matchup against Kevin Love. In three meetings against Love last season, Aldridge averaged 21 points 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal per game. He should be able to replicate those numbers tonight.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard – For all that Kyrie does on the offensive end of the floor, he’s a liability on defense. The Cavs were among the worst teams in the NBA at defending PGs last season and have already given up the eighth most fantasy points to PGs this season.
Phoenix at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -6.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
| Phoenix | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.1 | Team Pace | 99.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 27 | 16 | 16 | 11 | Opp. Season | 15 | 15 | 30 | 30 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 27 | 16 | 16 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 30 | 24 | |
Phoenix
The Suns come into tonight’s game as 6.5 point favorites over the Lakers. The total is set at 213 points which is nine points higher than the next closest total on the schedule. This may be the best game to target tonight as both teams like to push the pace and neither team is very efficient on the defensive end of the floor. In fact, the Lakers are ranked dead last in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Don’t be afraid to load up on a few Suns players tonight.
P.J. Tucker will make his season debut tonight after being suspended for the first three games of the season. Tucker will come off of the bench tonight, but it does hurt the fantasy appeal of Marcus Morris moving forward.
Prime Plays
Eric Bledsoe – Bledsoe signed a big contract in the offseason and so far it’s looking like he was worth every penny (well, maybe not every penny, but most of them). Bledsoe is averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal per game this season. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Lakers who are the least efficient team on the defensive end of the floor this season. This game has the highest total of the night and Bledsoe should be able to do what he does best: fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
Markieff Morris – Morris is one of my favorite plays overall tonight. Cash game plays and tournament plays don’t always have to be mutually exclusive. Sometimes a player can be a great cash game play AND a great tournament play. That’s the case with Morris tonight against the Lakers. Morris is averaging close to 30 fantasy points per game this season and draws a prime matchup against Carlos Boozer who has been nothing short of awful defensively this season.
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic – Dragic has gotten off of a poor start shooting the ball, but he’ll adjust to what the defense gives him soon enough. He draws a terrific matchup against Jeremy Lin and the Lakers.
L.A. Lakers
Despite a few new faces, the Lakers picked up right where they left off last season. They are 0-4 to start the season and they have lost by an average of 17 points per game which is the worst point differential in the entire league. That’s not promising, but Vegas expects them to be competitive tonight and so do I. The Suns have given up an average of 102 points per game and the Lakers should be able to keep it close in front of their home crowd. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that there are a few viable fantasy options on the Lakers tonight.
Prime Plays
Kobe Bryant – While the Lakers will likely continue to lose games, the good news is that Kobe is going to be able to take all of the shots that he wants this season. His usage rate is off the charts at 35.4 which is second only to Russell Westbrook this season. Kobe has a history of beating up the Suns and I expect him to come out firing tonight on route to his second 30-point scoring effort of the season.
Jordan Hill – Hill has been the one Lakers player that has actually played well this season. Over his last two games, he is averaging 23 points on 68.9 percent shooting. The best is that he is 11/20 on mid-range jumpers. Hill has always been a terrific rebounder and it appears that he is developing a nice offensive skill set to go with it. He provides great upside tonight against the Suns in a game that features the highest total of the night.
Secondary Plays
Jeremy Lin – Lin makes a nice tournament play tonight. After Kobe Bryant asked him to be more aggressive, he’s responded in the last two games by averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists.