NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, October 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
DvP Stats Will Be Added Later Into the Season
Orlando at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -9.5, 192 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
| Orlando | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.97 | Team Pace | 95.78 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Maurice Harkless | Tobias Harris | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Orlando
The NBA is back! We open with a three-game slate tonight to warm us up for the 12-game slate tomorrow night. The Magic start their season at less than full strength as they will be without both Victor Oladipo and Channing Frye. Their absence should open up minutes for Evan Fournier, Maurice Harkless, Kyle O’Quinn, and Andrew Nicholson. In terms of the Magic’s matchup tonight, it’s the toughest one on the board. The Pelicans are a slow paced team that’s a good unit defensively. With Omer Asik now in the mix, the Pelicans have two of the best rim protectors in the NBA.
Vegas agrees with me on the matchup as the Magic are 10-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 195 points. The total is by far the lowest of the night. Hopefully the Magic can keep it close so that we don’t start the season with a blowout, but there is certainly that risk heading into this game. Even on a three-game slate, I’d tread lightly when targeting the Magic players tonight. Other than Evan Fournier, the Magic are likely better served as GPP plays rather than cash game plays.
Prime Plays
Tobias Harris – Harris is expected to take a big leap this season after a promising 2013-14 campaign in which he averaged 15 points and 7 rebounds. With Oladipo on the shelf, Harris and Nikola Vucevic are going to have to carry this offense in the early going. Coach Jacque Vaughn says that Harris will play both SF and PF so don’t be surprised to see him play 35-40 minutes in the opener against the Pelicans. If the Pelicans are going to keep this game close, they are going to need a strong game from Harris.
Evan Fournier – The NBA is all about finding value and there may not be a better value play than Fournier tonight. With Oladipo out, Fournier will get the start at SG. He’s a 6’7” point/shooting guard that can create mismatches on both ends of the floor. Fournier can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and should see close to 30 minutes of action tonight against a Pelicans team that was a middle of the pack defense against opposing SGs last season. Fournier should be able to easily pay off his near-minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton – The Magic have high hopes for the rookie. He’s a young PG that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet which makes him a viable fantasy option right out of the gate.
Kyle O’Quinn – It hasn’t been announced who will start for Channing Frye tonight, but O’Quinn will see a boost in minutes either way. He’s a very productive player that should see 25+ minutes of playing time.
New Orleans
The Pelicans open their season as 10-point favorites against the Magic at home. The Pelicans have a lot of young talent, but they have not been able to stay healthy. Last season they had their five best players all lose time to injury: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, and Ryan Anderson. If the Pelicans can manage to stay relatively healthy this season, they should be a playoff-contending team in a very tough Western Conference. Adding Omer Asik down low should only help bolster an already good defense.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Pelicans should be a much-improved team this season. Considering the fact that they were playing at half-strength for most of last season, they should be better due to health alone. Jrue Holiday is a great fit for this offense as he can score, but has that pass-first mentality. One of the names that I haven’t seen mentioned a whole lot in the preseason is Ryan Anderson. He’s one of the best stretch-fours in the NBA and he’s coming into this season healthy after being knocked out last season due to shoulder surgery.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – The Brow Hype Train is at an all-time high. Many are saying that he can be an MVP candidate. While I’d like to sit on my soap box and tell you that the pundits are wrong, I may be the one driving the train. I’m expecting big things from Davis in his third season. Last year he averaged 21 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 blocks, and a steal per game. That roughly equates to 42 fantasy points per game using FanDuel’s scoring system. Lofty expectations are often hard to live up to, but Davis is a player that can average 25 points, 12 boards, and 3 blocks per game this season. With all of the value on the board tonight, Davis is the stud that you want to anchor your lineups around.
Jrue Holiday – Before getting hurt (missed the last 48 games last season), Holiday was having a good first season with the Pelicans. He averaged 14 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. He was the motor of this offense and his injury was a big reason why the Pelicans had such a drop-off offensively in the second half of the season. Holiday should be targeted right out of the gate as he has plenty of weapons at his disposal in this Pelicans offense. He’ll match up against rookie Elfrid Payton who may be a little intimidated in his first NBA start.
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon – Gordon doesn’t fill up the stat sheet, but he can score with the best of them. If you are looking for a cheap SG not named Evan Fournier, Gordon offers nice value at his price point.
Omer Asik – Asik doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he does offer a high floor because he is a rebound-machine when he is on the floor. As a starter last season, he averaged 9 points and 11 rebounds per game.
Dallas at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -3.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Felton-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Dallas | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.56 | Team Pace | 97.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Raymond Felton | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Dallas
The new-look Mavericks start their season off in one of the toughest places to play in the NBA, the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Mavs win the award for best offseason acquisitions as Mark Cuban somehow found time away from the Shark Tank. The Mavs picked up Chandler Parsons, Tyson Chandler, Jameer Nelson, and Raymond Felton to completely overhaul their roster around Dirk Nowitzki. Do I think the Mavs improved in the offseason? Yes, but I’m not sold that they are anything other than a playoff team destined for a first-round loss to one of the giants in the Western Conference.
Prime Plays
Jameer Nelson – Raymond Felton has been ruled out of the Mavs’ season opener with a high ankle sprain which means Nelson will draw the start and see all of the minutes that he can handle at PG. Despite being a veteran team, the Spurs actually play at a faster than league-average pace. They were ranked 20th against opposing PGs last season and Tony Parker’s defense likely hasn’t gotten any better over the off-season. Nelson is priced as a back-up, but will get starter’s minutes and production. Target him in all league formats as he should easily pay off his cheap price tag.
Tyson Chandler – I’m taking the value route on the Mavs tonight. Chandler is happy to be back in Dallas and he draws a cupcake matchup right out of the gate. With Tiago Splitter ruled out for tonight’s contest, Chandler will be matched up against Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw. He should easily reach double-digit rebounds and be a force on the defensive side of the ball. If he can manage to get a few easy dunks or put-backs, he may be in line for a double-double bonus tonight on DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki – Theoretically, a matchup against the old and slow Duncan should be a good one for Dirk, but he only averaged 18 points and 6 rebounds in four meetings against the Spurs last season.
Chandler Parsons – Parsons should play a similar role on the Mavs as he did on the Rockets last season. He’s a solid play at SF tonight, but it’s a tough night to pay up for him with all of the value at the position.
San Antonio
The Spurs trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Manu Ginobili won their fourth championship together last season as they took down the Heat in what was LeBron James’ final game in Miami. Despite the five championships, this group is looking to do something that they have never done before: win back-to-back titles. The Spurs open up the season at home against a familiar Western Conference rival.
Prime Plays
Tony Parker – Of the big three in San Antonio, Parker has the freshest legs. He still looks like a young buck compared to old Duncan and Ginobili. Parker is coming off of another productive season where he averaged 17 points and 6 assists per game. Luckily for us, it’s the first game of the season and we don’t have to worry about Coach Pop resting his veterans. Parker draws a nice matchup against Jameer Nelson who is a shaky defender at best.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan – The ageless wonder kicks off his 18th NBA season tonight against the Mavs. He’s still a viable fantasy option, but he’ll have to lock horns with Tyson Chandler who is one of the better big men defenders in the NBA.
Boris Diaw – With Tiago Splitter out, Diaw should see a boost in both minutes and production. He’s close to minimum salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and makes a nice contrarian play in tournaments.
Danny Green – Green will start either way, but he should see a small fantasy boost if Kawhi Leonard doesn’t play tonight. He’s a bit too inconsistent to use in cash games though.
Houston at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – Houston -7, 207 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Nash-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
| Houston | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.24 | Team Pace | 99.23 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Steve Nash | Kobe Bryant | Wes Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Season | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Last 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Houston
This is the game that will likely feature the most “fantasy-goodness.” The total is set at 206.5 points which actually seems a bit low considering the pace of play that these two teams played at last season. Obviously, the Lakers are going to play a much different style of basketball under head coach Byron Scott though. Once again, the Rockets have a ton of talent on their roster, the question is whether or not they can finally put it altogether and become a contender in the West. Even though they lost Chandler Parsons, they picked up Trevor Ariza who is a very comparable player. Ariza arguably gives them a better defender on the perimeter. While it may be hard to only take a few players from the first two games, this is the game that you want to load up on.
Prime Plays
Dwight Howard – Dwight is an easy play at center tonight. Some sites have Anthony Davis listed as center eligible, but both Howard should be locked into your center position on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dwight is coming off of a solid 2013-14 season in which he averaged 18 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He should have similar averages this season and I expect him to get off to a hot start against an under-sized Lakers’ frontcourt.
Patrick Beverley – With Jeremy Lin in L.A., Beverley is going to see all of the minutes he can handle at PG for the Rockets. Beverley has always been known as a pesky defender, but he’s worked hard to improve his offense in the off-season. While it can be a little nerve-wrecking to take a PG that doesn’t have the ball in his hands that often (see: James Harden), Beverley is cheap and draws a great matchup against Jeremy Lin who is a polar opposite of Beverley (all offense, no defense).
Secondary Plays
James Harden – I love the matchup for Harden tonight. The only reason he is not listed as a “prime play” is because it’s difficult to fit Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, and James Harden all on the same lineup. Given the other options at SG tonight, I prefer Davis and Howard over Harden.
Terrence Jones – Jones had a breakout season with the Rockets last year and he’ll look to get off to a strong start against Carlos Boozer and the Lakers this season. He’s shaping up to be a sharp play tonight.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza should be able to post comparable numbers to what Chandler Parsons did in this offense last season. He gets a small boost on sites that award bonuses for three-pointers.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are hoping to bounce back after posting an ugly 27-55 record last season. The Lakers certainly didn’t get off to a great start as Steve Nash is already out for the year before the first game tips off. The Lakers should certainly be better this season with the acquisitions of Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer, but they are far from a playoff team. The one thing that they do have in their favor is a chip the size of California on Kobe Bryant’s shoulder. Kobe is fueled by critics and he has all the fuel he needs coming into this season.
Prime Plays
Jeremy Lin – I’m torn on Lin tonight. On the one hand, he’s going to get all of the minutes he can handle with Steve Nash and Ronnie Price both out for tonight’s game. Lin is a very productive offensive player in an uptempo offense. He’s also facing his former team and we all know how much we love the revenge narrative. On the other hand, he’s matched up against Patrick Beverley who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Wesley Johnson – Johnson, like Evan Fournier and Jameer Nelson, will be a popular value play tonight. With Wayne Ellington, Nick Young, and Xavier Henry all expected to miss the opener, Johnson could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight. He’s not the most polished offensive player, but he can shoot and he can defend. He should easily pay off his salary tonight in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night.
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant – As mentioned above, Kobe has an enormous chip on his shoulder coming into the season and draws a favorable matchup on opening night. He’s a site-specific play tonight as his price on DraftKings is affordable, but he’s almost as expensive as James Harden on FanDuel.
Jordan Hill – Hill was the happiest man in the Lakers’ locker room when Mike D’Antoni decided to leave the Lakers. Hill should see much more consistent playing time this season under new head coach Byron Scott, especially considering the fact that Robert Sacre is next in line for minutes at the Center position.
Carlos Boozer – Per 36 minutes last season, Boozer averaged 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He should see upwards of 36 minutes per game in the early going for the Lakers. Fire Boozer up as a contrarian play in tournaments.