NBA Grind Down: Wednesday December 10th - Page Two
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Portland at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Portland -10.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Portland | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 97.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.7 | Team Pace | 99.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 9 | Opp. Season | 13 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 21 | 14 | |
Portland
The Blazers are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight as they head to Minnesota to take on the T-Wolves. We don’t have to worry about minutes being down too much here, as the Blazers are a spry, young team. Fantasy-wise, this is one of the best matchups on the board. The T-Wolves are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, 27th in rebounding differential, and have allowed their opponents to score an average of 110.2 points per game.
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9700, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
Aldridge has had a terrific eight-game stretch. During that time, he is averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He should have no problem replicating a similar stat line tonight as he takes on the T-Wolves, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing power forwards. Don’t worry about the back-to-back, Aldridge should be in for another terrific fantasy outing tonight.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8400, DK: $8800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24)
Lillard typically has a low level of ownership because he plays a position with a vast amount of options every night. I expect his ownership level to be low again tonight, making him an intriguing tournament option. He draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards.
Robin Lopez (FD: $5500, DK: $5400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
As mentioned above, the T-Wolves are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Plus, Lopez will be defending Gorgui Dieng who rarely leaves the paint. That should lead to a double-digit rebounding effort from Ro-Lo tonight. His price has come down on both FD and DK, making him a viable cash game option tonight on both sites.
Minnesota
Mo Williams is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. His availability is important as both Zach LaVine and Corey Brewer see a nice fantasy boost in his absence. Tonight’s matchup against the Blazers is not a great one. The Blazers are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in rebounding differential, and have held their opponents to an average of 95.5 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Zach LaVine (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Mo Williams is doubtful for tonight’s game, which makes LaVine a very appealing value play tonight. Over his last three starts, LaVine is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. He’s also played a whopping 39 minutes per game over that stretch. If he draws another start, lock him in as a terrific value play tonight against the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
None
New York at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -11, 193.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Shumpert-Anthony-Acy-Stoudemire
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Bonner
| New York | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.25 | Team Proj. | 102.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.07 | Team Pace | 95.87 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Iman Shumpert | Carmelo Anthony | Quincy Acy | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | Opp. Season | 2 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 7 | 23 | |
New York
The Knicks have lost nine games in a row and now head to San Antonio to take on the defending champion Spurs. Even if Coach Popovich decides to rest his veterans tonight, the Knicks should be avoided for fantasy purposes. The Spurs have the third-best defense in the NBA, holding opponents to only 94.3 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
Tony Parker is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he can’t suit up, Cory Joseph would draw another start in his place. In addition to Parker’s injury, this is a game where we could see Coach Popovich rest some of his veterans, as this is the second half of a back-to-back. It may not be a bad idea to avoid Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili even if they are in the lineup.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7200, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22)
This may be my least favorite game to target tonight, but that doesn’t meant that we have to avoid it completely. Unlike Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili, Leonard has had no limits in back-to-backs this season. In fact, in six games with zero days of rest this season, Leonard is averaging 33 minutes, 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. Those numbers are actually slightly higher than his averages for the season. Update: Kawhi Leonard is OUT tonight
Cory Joseph (FD: $4700, DK: $5000 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
Joseph put up a dud last night against the Jazz, finishing with a weird stat line of 7 points and 2 blocks. This pick obviously hinges on the health of Tony Parker, but the Spurs have no reason to rush him back as they are facing the lowly Knicks. If Joseph draws another start, he immediately becomes one of the better value plays on the board.
New Orleans at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -7, 209 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| New Orleans | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7 | Vegas Sprd | -7 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101 | Team Proj. | 108 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.03 | Team Pace | 96.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 10 | Opp. Season | 19 | 13 | 26 | 9 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 27 | 18 | 14 | 6 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after picking up a fairly easy win over the Knicks last night. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that has the highest total of the night. Both of these teams like to push the pace, which could turn this game into a shootout. On the season, the Mavericks are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 103.1 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7200, DK: $7400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Evans is coming off of one his best game in weeks. He had 27 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists in last night’s win over the Knicks. He should head into tonight’s game against the Mavericks with a ton of confidence. This game has the highest total on the board tonight at 209 points. Evans is at his best in transition where he can attack the rim and create easy shots for himself and his teammates. He should have plenty of opportunities for that tonight in a fast-paced game against the Mavericks.
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11400, DK: $11700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
This is the first three-game stretch of the season where Davis hasn’t scored more than 40 fantasy points. That streak should come to a screeching halt tonight against the Mavericks, in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. Davis is still the most expensive player on the board, but he still has more upside than anyone as well. Dirk may pull him away from the rim on defense, but he should be able to make up for that offensively.
Omer Asik (FD: $5300, DK: $5500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
Asik had a mammoth of a fantasy outing last night with 16 points, 14 rebounds, and 2 blocked shots. At this point, he’s become one of the safer cash game options at center because he sees consistent minutes and his rebounds are fairly predictable. Asik is a safe cash game option tonight against the Mavericks.
Dallas
The Mavericks are 7-point favorites tonight against the Pelicans. Vegas has their team total projected at 108 points, which is the highest of any team on the schedule tonight. The Pelicans are not great defensively – ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency and giving up 99.9 points per game to their opponents.
Injury Note: Monta Ellis was dealing with an elbow injury prior to yesterday’s game. He played through it, but did not look like himself. You may want to avoid him tonight against the Pelicans.
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6500, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 21)
Parsons got off to a slow start this season, but has put together a nice stretch of fantasy outings recently. Over his last six games, he is averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. Tonight he squares off against Luke Babbitt and the Pelicans, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards. His price on FD may be too good to ignore tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
If you are considering Dirk Nowitzki tonight, make sure to double-check his status closer to tip-off as the Mavericks have given him a couple of games off in back-to-back sets. That said, as long as he gets the green light to play, he makes a very appealing option on DK once again. He’s still listed as $6,400 there, which means he only has to score 32 fantasy points to reach value.
Miami at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -5.5, 203 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-McRoberts-Bosh
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| Miami | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.75 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.86 | Team Pace | 98.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Josh McRoberts | Chris Bosh | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 6 | 18 | 27 | 25 | Opp. Season | 15 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 24 | 5 | |
Miami
The Heat picked up a big win last night over the Suns in Phoenix. They will look for back-to-back road wins tonight as they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in a fantasy-friendly matchup. On the season, the Nuggets are ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. They are also one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, which makes it no surprise that they are giving up 105.8 points per game to their opponents.
Injury Note: Josh McRoberts is questionable. You should also monitor Dwyane Wade’s status throughout the day, as the Heat have a nasty habit of resting him in the second half of back-to-backs.
Elite Plays
Chris Bosh (FD: $8500, DK: $8500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
Bosh is coming off of a season-high 34 points in last night’s win over the Suns. He also added 9 rebounds and 4 steals to round out his fantasy performance. Tonight the Heat head to Denver to take on a Nuggets team that has struggled to defend opposing big men all season long. The Nuggets are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing centers. Not only that, but the Heat will look to exploit Bosh’s mis-match against the much slower Timofey Mozgov.
Secondary Plays
None
Denver
This will be a pace-down game for the Nuggets, as the Heat are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league (averaging only 91.9 possessions per 48 minutes). The good news is that the Heat can’t defend or rebound. They are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential this season.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $9000, DK: $9500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
This is a great spot for Lawson, I’m just not sure I will be able to pay the premium for him tonight. That said, he’s been playing well recently and he draws a great matchup against the Heat, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards. I’m expecting another big outing from him tonight, but his hefty price tag leaves him as a secondary play rather than an elite play.
Houston at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -10.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Houston | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.60 | Team Pace | 100.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 23 | 10 | 22 | 3 | Opp. Season | 1 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 26 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 17 | 26 | 13 | 10 | |
Houston
The Rockets continue to be plagued with injuries. They will be without Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, and Isaiah Canaan tonight. James Harden’s status is also in doubt, but he managed to make it through shoot-around, which tells me that he’s more likely to play than not. The Rockets did get Patrick Bevelery back last game though. He came off the bench, but will likely reclaim his role as the starting point guard as the Rockets will need his defense on Stephen Curry.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $10300, DK: $11400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
Harden would be an elite play if he was 100% healthy, but he is dealing with back spasms and you never really know when those are going to flare up. For that reason, I will only be using him as a tournament play tonight against the Warriors.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6100, DK: $6500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Ariza has been playing Jimmy Butler-type of minutes lately. He has played at least 40 minutes in six of his last nine games. During that stretch, he has topped 25 fantasy points seven times. Ariza doesn’t have an extremely high upside, but he has a high floor and is guaranteed to play big minutes. That’s about all you can ask for in cash games.
Golden State
These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the league, yet the total for tonight’s game is only set at 203 points. That goes to show how good both of these teams are defensively. On paper, this isn’t a great matchup, as the Rockets are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and 5th in rebounding differential. Stephen Curry is an interesting tournament play, but I may fade him altogether as he draws a tough matchup against the pesky Patrick Beverley.
Injury Note: Andrew Bogut is questionable for tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7700, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.9)
Thompson is one of the better pure-shooters in the NBA. On the season, he is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists, which equates to around 33 fantasy points per game. The Rockets and Warriors both love to push the pace, which could lead to a few open looks for Thompson in transition. His price is reasonable and so is the matchup, as the Rockets are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing shooting guards .
Draymond Green (FD: $7300, DK: $6300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
I’ve been higher on Green than most this season (wait, that doesn’t sound right) and I can’t figure out why. His ownership level continues to be low, despite averaging 13 points 8 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. Green will likely see all of the minutes that he can handle again tonight as David Lee is out and Andrew Bogut is questionable. Green is a good play on FD and a great play on DK tonight.
Secondary Plays
None