NBA Grind Down Wednesday, December 17th - Page Two
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Brooklyn at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -11, 197.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Karasev-Garnett-Plumlee
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Fields-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Brooklyn | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.25 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.12 | Team Pace | 95.41 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Joe Johnson | Sergey Karasev | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | Landry Fields | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 13 | Opp. Season | 23 | 27 | 17 | 22 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 6 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 8 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets travel to Toronto to take on the red-hot Raptors in a game that could easily turn into a blowout. The Nets are short-handed and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Vegas has them listed as 11-point underdogs tonight and the Raptors own a top-15 defense. Mason Plumlee is in play, but I prefer Chris Kaman or Rudy Gobert over him tonight. You can safely avoid the rest of the Nets.
Injury Note: Brook Lopez is out for tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto
The Raptors host the Nets tonight in a game that could get out of hand early. Fantasy-wise, this is an average matchup. The Nets play at a relatively slow pace and are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. On the season, they are holding their opponents to an average of 98.1 points.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9800, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Lowry has been terrific ever since DeMar DeRozan went down with his injury. In the nine games without DeRozan in the lineup, Lowry is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. His usage rate continues to climb and he has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He has an extremely high floor and draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 17th in fantasy points per 48 minutes to opposing point guards.
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -3, 194 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Anderson-Duncan-Baynes
| Memphis | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.0 |  | Vegas Total | 194.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.2 | Team Pace | 95.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | Aron Baynes | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 10 | Opp. Season | 5 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 30 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies took down the Warriors at home last night to end their 16-game winning streak. If there were any doubts, that game proved that the Grizzlies are a force to be reckoned with in the West. Tonight they have another tough test ahead of them, as they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. This isn’t the most fantasy-friendly matchup. The Spurs are ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to an average of 95.4 points per game. With a full slate of games, you can safely avoid the Grizzlies tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs are still the team to beat in the West, but they have a couple of teams knocking on the door. One of which is the Grizzlies. The Spurs are 4-point favorites tonight in a game that is expected to be a defensive battle. The Grizzlies are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 95.6 points per game.
Injury Note: Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both out for tonight’s game. Cory Joseph will draw the start at point guard.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Danny Green (FD: $5100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard have both been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Grizzlies. This should lead to an uptick in both minutes and production for Green. Even though the matchup against the Grizzlies isn’t ideal, he’s more than capable of reaching value tonight. He is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game this season, a number that he should be able to exceed tonight with an increased role in the offense.
Cory Joseph (FD: $4600, DK: $4800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.2)
With Tony Parker out, Joseph will draw another start at point guard. In six starts this season, Joseph has averaged 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. His price is still very reasonable on both FD and DK. Even in a tough matchup against the Grizzlies, he should be able to reach and exceed value tonight at his price.
Milwaukee at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -9, 203 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Sanders
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
| Milwaukee | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 96.28 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Khris Middleton | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 19 | Opp. Season | 16 | 17 | 28 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 29 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 11 | 25 | 8 | 15 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks picked up the win over the Suns the other night on a game-winning three from Khris Middleton. He made sure to use the entire basket on that shot. The Bucks will look for their third win in a row tonight against the Blazers. They are going to have their hands full though, as the Blazers are one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 9-point favorites in a game that features a total of 203 points.
Injury Note: Jabari Parker is out for the season. Khris Middleton will likely draw the start in his place.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Knight has the ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories. On the season, he is averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He’s always a terrific tournament option because he provides good upside and his ownership level is always low. He’s even in play for cash games tonight, especially on DK where he’s listed at a bargain price of $6,600. He draws a favorable matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing point guards.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Jabari Parker’s injury could open up some major playing time for Giannis, although with Jason Kidd you can never really predict how his rotations will go. Giannis has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games and may be asked to play some extra minutes tonight. He’s worth a look as a tournament play on both FD and DK.
Portland
The Blazers are 9-point favorites tonight in a game that is expected to be high scoring. Their projected team total is at 106 points, which is one of the highest on the board. While the Bucks are ranked in the top ten in terms of defensive efficiency, they play at such a fast pace that their opponents are averaging 100.4 points per game. Damian Lillard is in play here, but the best targets are the two starting big men.
Injury Note: Robin Lopez will be out for at least six weeks. Chris Kaman will likely draw the start in his place.
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
While Chris Kaman is a much better offensive player than Robin Lopez, I don’t think he hurts Aldridge’s production at all. In fact, it may lead to Aldridge seeing a slight boost in playing time. Aldridge has been on an absolute tear over his last nine games, averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup at home against the Pacers, who have been very average at defending opposing power forwards this season. I have him ranked as my top overall power forward tonight (apologies to Blake Griffin).
Chris Kaman (FD: $4600, DK: $4000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Chris Kaman will likely draw the start at center tonight (fingers crossed). On the season, he is averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute and he may see 25+ minutes tonight against the Bucks. Based on a 5x salary value system, Kaman only needs to score 23 fantasy points on FD and 20 fantasy points on DK. He’s more than capable of that, as he’ll see extended playing time with Lopez out. Don’t be late to the Kaman bandwagon.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at Denver
- Vegas Line – Houston -3, 206.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
| Houston | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.00 | Vegas Sprd | 3.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.75 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.26 | Team Pace | 98.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 4 | 8 | 21 | 20 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 21 | 27 | 7 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 1 | 26 | 21 | 10 | |
Houston
The Rockets travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets in a premier matchup. The Nuggets play at a very fast pace and are currently ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. On the season, the Nuggets have given up an average of 104.6 points per game. There are a few good targets on the Rockets tonight.
Injury Note: Dwight Howard made it through shoot-around, but is questionable for tonight’s game. He’s a very risky option tonight, even though the matchup is ideal.
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $11400 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31.4)
Dwight Howard is questionable for tonight. If his injury keeps him out of action, Harden would become my favorite fantasy option on the board tonight, as we have seen what he can do in Howard’s absence. Even if Howard does suit up, Harden still makes a good tournament play because he has as much upside as anyone in the NBA. Tonight he faces the Nuggets, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing shooting guards.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 18)
Ariza is playing Jimmy Butler type of minutes lately. He has played at least 42 minutes in each of his last five games. The NBA is all about opportunity and Ariza is getting plenty of that with his extended playing time. He draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Nuggets, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards. Ariza scored 29.6 fantasy points against the Nuggets the other night and should be able to replicate that tonight.
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $6000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
Motiejunas draws a terrific matchup against the Nuggets, who have been struggling to defend the paint for years. In fact, they are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing power forwards. Motiejunas played well against the Nuggets the other night with 33 fantasy points. Plus, he would see a nice boost if Dwight Howard doesn’t end up playing.
Denver
The Nuggets have an attractive matchup if you only look at the Vegas total for the game. It’s set at 206.5 points, which is one of the highest totals on the board tonight. The issue is that the Rockets are actually very good defensively. They are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and 7th in rebounding differential. I’m not saying that you have to avoid the Nuggets completely, but there aren’t any plays that really stand out in this one. Ty Lawson is not featured below because there are so many other options at point guard tonight. Plus, he has to deal with the pesky Patrick Beverley.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $6000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Chandler is the one Nuggets player that I am considering tonight. He has really turned into a consistent fantasy option this season. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of those games. He draws a decent matchup against the Rockets, who are ranked 15th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards.
Indiana at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -11.5, 201 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Indiana | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.0 |  | Vegas Total | 201.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.74 | Team Pace | 96.11 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 24 | Opp. Season | 27 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 29 | 4 | 23 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 19 | 8 | 14 | 19 | |
Indiana
This is a game that I will likely have very little exposure to. The Pacers are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league and they are huge underdogs. That’s not a great combination for fantasy production. The Pacers are facing the Clippers, who are ranked 15th in defensive efficiency. With the potential blowout, you should tread lightly with the Pacers tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
C.J. Watson (FD: $4300, DK: $5000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Since entering the starting lineup, Watson has averaged 16 points and 4 assists per game. He is still underpriced on FD tonight at $4,300 and is also in play on DK at $5,000. You won’t find many starting point guards with his usage rate at this price. While he does draw a tough matchup against Chris Paul and the Clippers, he scored 26.1 fantasy points in his first meeting against them this season. Consider him a low-risk, medium-reward option for tonight.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are huge favorites in tonight’s game against the Pacers. Not only does this game have the potential to turn into a blowout, but this will be a pace-down game for the Clippers, as the Pacers only average 94 possessions per 48 minutes. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are both too expensive for my liking tonight, especially considering the fact that tonight has a full slate of games. DeAndre Jordan is my favorite play here, but there are so many good options at center, that I’m not targeting him tonight, outside of a deep contrarian play for tournaments.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None