NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 31st

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace


Sacramento at Boston

Sacramento Boston
sacramentonba Vegas Total 210 bostonnba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 105.8
Team Pace 96.34 Team Pace 100.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Evan Turner Avery Bradley Jeff Green Jared Sullinger Tyler Zeller
Opp. Season 19 6 11 28 26 Opp. Season 20 26 7 29 4
Opp. Last 7 16 15 15 14 20 Opp. Last 7 28 5 14 19 27


Sacramento

The NBA gets started early on New Year’s Eve with three games tipping off before the usual 7:00 E.T. The Kings have signed Coach Tyrone Corbin for the rest of the season, which seems to come as a surprise to everyone, including the players. He’ll look to have his players ready for today’s early game against the Celtics in Boston. Many experts (including myself) were expecting the Celtics to slow their pace of play after the Rajon Rondo trade, but that hasn’t been the case. The Celtics are still averaging 100 possessions per 48 minutes, which is the second-fastest pace in the NBA. That’s great news for the fantasy appeal of the Kings.

Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 10-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10800, DK: $11100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34)

There isn’t anyone that can cover Cousins on the Celtics. Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk should get dominated in the paint in this one. The question isn’t whether Cousins will have a big game, but how big of a game will he actually have? Cousins has scored at least 43 fantasy points in each of his last five games. He should keep the streak alive today against the Celtics, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to centers this season.

Darren Collison (FD: $7400, DK: $6900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.4)

Collison is one of my go-to players when I need a point guard that I can rely on in cash games. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and he draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Look for Collison to force some turnovers from Turner and Smart and hopefully turn them into some easy buckets on the other end.

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay (FD: $8800, DK: $8700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.7)

The only thing holding Gay back from being an elite play is his price tag. He needs to score around 43 fantasy points to reach value. While he is certainly capable of that, he is only averaging 36.4 fantasy points per game this season. He also draws a fairly tough matchup against Jeff Green.

Boston

The Celtics will look to end their four-game skid today, as they host the Kings. The Celtics are 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a generous total of 210 points. This game is expected to be competitive and high-scoring, both of which bode well for the fantasy appeal of both teams. The issue with the Celtics is that they haven’t had any single player really step up in Rajon Rondo’s absence. Outside of Jeff Green, there isn’t a single player that is guaranteed to play more than 30 minutes. That makes it tough to predict their performance game to game.

Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 13-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley (FD: $5000, DK: $4000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.6)

Prior to the Celtics’ last game, Bradley had put together a solid four-game stretch, averaging 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. His price on DraftKings is extremely affordable and he makes an interesting play on FanDuel as well, especially in the ‘early-only’ leagues. He draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to shooting guards.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Green (FD: $6100, DK: $6000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.1)

Green’s price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings. At his current price point, he needs to score around 30 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that, as he has scored at least 29 fantasy point in five of his last ten games. Green does draw a tough matchup against Rudy Gay though, which is why he is listed as a secondary play.


Miami at Indiana

Miami Indiana
miaminba Vegas Total 188.5 indiananba Vegas Total 188.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 92.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 91.65 Team Pace 95.28
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mario Chalmers Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Chris Andersen Proj Starter George Hill Rodney Stuckey Solomon Hill David West Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 24 13 1 4 25 Opp. Season 7 30 6 1 29
Opp. Last 7 13 12 10 18 7 Opp. Last 7 8 20 22 6 25


Miami

The Heat finally have a playoff-caliber starting lineup now that they are healthy. Today they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in a game that has a very low total of 188.5 points. The Heat are 4-point underdogs with their team total set at only 92.3 points. The Pacers own a top ten defense. I would only recommend taking players from the Heat if you are playing in the ‘early-only’ slate on either FanDuel or DraftKings.

Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 11-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade (FD: $9100, DK: $8800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.7)

Wade has scored at least 35 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. While most of those games were without Chris Bosh in the lineup, Wade is still the go-to scorer in the Heat’s offense. He draws a decent matchup against the much smaller Rodney Stuckey. Look for Wade to attack him in the post.

Chris Andersen (FD: $4200, DK: $3900 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 11.1)

Andersen doesn’t exactly scream “upside,’ but he has been consistent recently and is expected to draw another start at center. He has played at least 19 minutes and has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. If you need some salary cap relief in the early slate, Andersen is worth a look at his price point.

Indiana

The Pacers host the Heat in what is expected to be a very low-scoring game. This will actually be a pace-down game for the Pacers, as the Heat average 91.7 possessions per 48 minutes. The good news is that the Heat play little to no defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding differential.

Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 14-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Elite Plays

David West (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.4)

West has been a rock-solid cash game player over the last couple of weeks. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last ten games, yet he is still listed at a very affordable price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Chris Andersen starting at center, West will be defended by Chris Bosh, who is not an elite defender. Bosh is the main reason why opposing centers have fared so well against the Heat this season.

Secondary Plays

Solomon Hill (FD: $4500, DK: $4200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.4)

Hill isn’t a player that racks up fantasy points in a hurry, but he is one of the cheapest players if you are looking at a $/minute basis. Over his last ten games, Hill averaging 31 minutes per game. During that stretch, he has posted respectable averages of 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He offers some nice salary cap relief at small forward today against the Heat.


New York at L.A. Clippers

New York L.A. Clippers
newyorknba Vegas Total 206 laclippersnba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 92.38 Team Pace 96.41
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Tim Hardaway Carmelo Anthony Jason Smith Cole Aldrich Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Matt Barnes Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 3 22 12 18 17 Opp. Season 12 23 2 16 19
Opp. Last 7 19 16 25 15 14 Opp. Last 7 23 22 11 3 30


New York

The Knicks continue to lose. They have lost eight in a row and will likely lost their ninth in a row today against the Clippers. Vegas has the Knicks listed as 13-point underdogs, which actually seems a bit low considering the way that they have been playing. In terms of potential fantasy production, this matchup is actually pretty decent though. The Clippers are a fast-paced team that is giving up over 100 points per game to their opponents. I don’t recommend paying up for Carmelo Anthony in a potential blowout, but there are a few value plays that are worth consideration.

Injury Update: Carmelo Anthony plans to play against the Clippers. J.R. Smith is listed as questionable.

Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 21-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Elite Plays

Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 24)

Hardaway’s fantasy value has taken a small hit with Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup, but Anthony isn’t the reason why. Hardaway is still getting his shots up, averaging 14 shot attempts over his last three games. The issue is that he is only 15/41 during that stretch. As long as he keeps getting minutes and shot attempts, he will remain on my fantasy radar. He draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.

Cole Aldrich (FD: $5000, DK: $5500 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 16.8)

Amar’e Stoudemire has already been ruled out for this game, which is great news for Aldrich. He has been on a tear recently, averaging 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists over his last six games. He could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight, especially considering the fact that the Clippers have one of the best front-courts in the NBA.

Secondary Plays

Jason Smith (FD: $3800, DK: $3800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 20.9)

Smith is projected to start alongside Cole Aldrich today against the Clippers. If he does draw the start, he would make an interesting value play, considering the fact that he is only $3,800 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Smith has slowly seen his playing time increase lately and he has responded well with at least 18 fantasy points in three of his last four games.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers take on the hapless Knicks today in Los Angeles. They are huge favorites at home in a game that could very easily turn into a blowout. The line isn’t as high as it was in last night’s Sixers/Warriors game, but the feeling is the same. The starters could easily end up sitting the entire fourth quarter, which makes them risky fantasy options in cash games. That said, this is a favorable matchup, as the Knicks are ranked in the bottom ten in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential.

Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Elite Plays

Jamal Crawford (FD: $5500, DK: $4900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 27.9)

Crawford is the one Clippers player that I will have exposure to in both cash games and tournaments. His price has come way down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, even though he has been playing well recently. Over his last six games, he is averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Crawford should see his usual 25-30 minutes regardless of the outcome of the game.

Secondary Plays

As mentioned above, this game could easily turn into a blowout. The Knicks have lost eight straight games and the Clippers have been very good at home (13-4). For that reason, I am hesitant to pay up for the big three of the Clippers in cash games. They are all in play if you are willing to brave the elements of a potential blowout, but in my eyes they are better tournament options than cash game options:

Chris Paul (FD: $10100, DK: $10600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.5)

Blake Griffin (FD: $10400, DK: $11200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 30.2)

DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8100, DK: $8300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 11)


Milwaukee at Cleveland

Milwaukee Cleveland
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 203 clevelandnba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 96.68 Team Pace 94.47
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Brandon Knight Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Johnny O’Bryant Zaza Pachulia Proj Starter Kyrie Irving Mike Miller LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 6 24 16 21 15 Opp. Season 18 15 23 6 27
Opp. Last 7 2 25 28 9 17 Opp. Last 7 22 19 2 12 21


Milwaukee

The Bucks travel to Cleveland to take on the struggling Cavaliers, who could be without LeBron James again tonight. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 5.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 203 points. This is a decent matchup from a fantasy perspective, as the Cavaliers are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 18-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Elite Plays

Brandon Knight (FD: $6700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 25.8)

Knight has been one of my favorite targets all season long. His price has been very affordable, despite being productive the entire season. Tonight he squares off against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers. Knight is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game this season and has 40 fantasy point type of upside every time he takes the floor. He should be able to post another solid stat line tonight against the Cavaliers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6500, DK: $5800 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.5)

Since Jabari Parker went down with his injury, Giannis has been seeing extended playing time. He has played at least 35 minutes and has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last five games. He should continue to see all of the minutes he can handle tonight against against the Cavaliers. Giannis has been inconsistent this season, but the he offers great upside for the price, especially on DraftKings.

Zaza Pachulia (FD: $4900, DK: $4200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.5)

Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova have both been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Cavaliers, which means Zaza Pachulia will continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle. A lot of people will target Bismack Biyombo tonight, but I’d much rather pay a little extra for a sure thing in Pachulia. He has averaged 28 fantasy points per game over his last three. Pachulia is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option tonight against the Cavs.

Secondary Plays

Jared Dudley (FD: $5300, DK: $4400 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 13.4)

Dudley has been on a tear recently, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game over his last six. He still comes off the bench, but should see close to 30 minutes tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 24th against shooting guards and 16th against small forwards this season.

Cleveland

The big question with the Cavaliers is whether or not LeBron James will play tonight. He sat out last night’s game with knee soreness and is currently listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s game against the Bucks. If he is forced to sit out, this gives a huge fantasy boost to Kyrie Irving and a small boost to both Kevin Love and Dion Waiters. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. While the Bucks are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, they are giving up close to 100 points per game to their opponents.

Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 16-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Elite Plays

Tristan Thompson (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 14.5)

Thompson may be my favorite play at any position tonight. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three straight games and gets to match up against a short-handed front-court of the Bucks. As a starter this season, Thompson has averaged 15 points and 12 rebounds per game. He doesn’t have a particularly high usage rate in this offense, but he should be able to post another double-double tonight against the Bucks.

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving (FD: $7800, DK: $9000 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 23.3)

This pick hinges on the health on LeBron James. In his absence last night, Irving took over offensively. He finished the game with 35 points, 6 rebounds, and 9 assists. If LeBron is forced to sit again tonight, Irving would become the go-to player in the Cavs’ offense once again. His increased usage in the offense would make him a terrific target at point guard, especially on FanDuel.

Dion Waiters (FD: $5000, DK: $4300 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.6)

Waiters’ fantasy value also hinges on the health of LeBron James. He would see a nice boost if LeBron is forced to sit out again tonight. Waiters got off to a slow start in last night’s game, but finished with a respectable 9 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals. He’s a bargain on DraftKings tonight and should easily reach value if LeBron doesn’t play against the Bucks.


Charlotte at Houston

Charlotte Houston
charlottenba Vegas Total 198.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 93.3 Team Proj. 105.3
Team Pace 94.77 Team Pace 97.69
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Gerald Henderson Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Cody Zeller Bismack Biyombo Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Josh Smith Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 4 18 19 14 13 Opp. Season 25 17 3 5 18
Opp. Last 7 20 27 20 1 24 Opp. Last 7 4 29 13 5 19


Charlotte

The Hornets are extremely short-handed for tonight’s game against the Rockets. They will be without two of their best offensive players in Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson. Vegas has the Hornets listed as 12-point underdogs with a team total of only 93.3 points. The good news is that the injuries should open up minutes and production for quite a few Hornets’ players tonight.

Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 21-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4

Elite Plays

Gerald Henderson (FD: $4600, DK: $4300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16.6)

Henderson is going to see extended minutes with Lance Stephenson out and he will see an increase in usage with Al Jefferson out. Henderson has been a very reliable value play when given the opportunity to start this season. He has averaged 29 minutes and 22 fantasy points per game over his last seven. At his price, he’s one of the best value plays on the board tonight.

Cody Zeller (FD: $4900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 16.5)

Al Jefferson has been ruled out for tonight’s game and he may end up missing the next four weeks of action. That should give a huge fantasy boost to Cody Zeller, who has seen his minutes take a hit over the last few weeks. Look for Zeller to immediately see somewhere in the range of 30 minutes per game. This is your classic injury plug-and-play that could pay off handsomely tonight.

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker (FD: $8600, DK: $8800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.7)

This is a tough situation. What do we factor more? Walker’s increased usage with Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson out or his tough matchup against Patrick Beverley? Walker’s price has come way up on both FanDuel and DraftKings and in a game that could potentially turn into a blowout, I’m treating Walker as a GPP-play only.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 16.8)

The injuries to Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson are going to open up big minutes for MKG, who has been playing well recently. Over his last six games, he is averaging 27 minutes and 22 fantasy points per game. He may see extended playing time tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.

Houston

The Rockets are huge favorites tonight at home against the Hornets. Given the fact that the Hornets are extremely short-handed, this game could easily turn into a blowout. The matchup is a favorable one, but it’s going to be tough paying up for James Harden and/or Dwight Howard in a potential blowout.

Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 10-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18

Elite Plays

Trevor Ariza (FD: $5700, DK: $6100 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 17.4)

Small forward is a very thin position tonight. There are very few options that really stand out. One that does stand out though is Trevor Ariza. He is averaging 38 minutes per game this season and is still listed at a cheap price on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a great chance to reach and exceed value tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked below average in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential this season.

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)

Howard will match up against Bismack Biyombo tonight. While Biyombo is a solid low-post defender, he’s not a guy that is used to playing 30+ minutes per game. I like Howard’s chances of having a big game in this one. That said, he’s better suited as a tournament play, as this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout.

Patrick Beverley (FD: $5800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 16.5)

Beverley offers great value at point guard tonight. He’s a player that typically flies under the radar, given his role in the Rockets offense, but he’s actually having a very nice season. Beverley is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists per game and he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious