NBA Grind Down Wednesday, December 3rd - Page Two
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Memphis at Houston
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5, 191 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
| Memphis | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.0 |  | Vegas Total | 191.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.0 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.42 | Team Pace | 96.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Tarik Black | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 11 | Opp. Season | 5 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 17 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 23 | 2 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies head to Houston to take on the Rockets in what will likely be one of the slowest-paced games of the night. The total for the game is set at only 191 points, which is the lowest total on the board. In terms of the matchup, this one leaves much to be desired. The Rockets are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to 92.8 points per game. Even though Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley are out, they are still a very good team defensively.
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $9100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Gasol has been on a tear recently. Over his last six games, he is averaging 25 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. His usage rate of 25.5 this season is one of the highest of any center in the NBA. If you look at the DvP ranking against centers over the last seven days, the Rockets are ranked 25th. Obviously, Tarik Black is a big step down from Dwight Howard on both ends of the floor.
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $5000, DK: $4200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Lee continues to be under-priced on DK. On the season, he is averaging 13 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He is averaging 33 minutes per game and draws a decent matchup against the short-handed Rockets. It’ll be interesting to see if the Rockets put Trevor Ariza on him, but even if that happens, I like his chances to reach value on DK.
Houston
Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Patrick Beverley, and Isaiah Canaan are all out tonight. The Rockets will be extremely short-handed, especially at PG. Jason Terry is expected to draw the start, but James Harden will be the primary play-maker in this offense. Matchup-wise, this is one of the worst on the schedule. The Grizzlies are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, 11th in total rebounding differential, and have held opponents to an average of 92.4 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $10700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
Harden is not a recommended cash game play tonight. He’s over-priced for his matchup against a tough Grizzlies defense. That said, he is worth a look as a tournament play. With all of the injuries, the Rockets offense is basically James Harden. If he is not scoring, he is likely getting the assist on any made basket. His usage rate is through the roof right now and he will certainly get his shots up tonight.
Dallas at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
| Dallas | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.75 | Team Proj. | 99.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.99 | Team Pace | 95.5 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 26 | 18 | 13 | 30 | Opp. Season | 25 | 14 | 19 | 6 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 29 | 30 | 15 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 18 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks will be playing on tired legs tonight. They outlasted the Bulls last night in double-OT. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks, who have been very good on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, the Bucks are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency. With a well-balanced offense and an average matchup, there aren’t any plays that stand out as “must haves” tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tyson Chandler (FD: $7000, DK: $6500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
The one position that the Bucks have really struggled against is the center position. On the season, they are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to centers per 48 minutes. Chandler has been a great fit for this Mavericks offense and should cause some havoc on the offensive glass. The Bucks are currently giving up 11.7 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents.
Milwaukee
The Bucks continue to be a mess when it comes to daily fantasy basketball. Jason Kidd continues to mix up his rotations and we have seen some very inconsistent play from everyone not named Brandon Knight. The good news is that this game is expected to be played at a fast pace. Vegas has the total for the game set at 204.5 (which seems a big high to me).
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Knight had another big outing last night with 27 points, 6 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. He has been by far the most consistent fantasy option on the Bucks this season. His price on FD and DK is very reasonable. To reach value, he only has to score about 35 fantasy points. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to PGs per 48 minutes.
Secondary Plays
Jabari Parker (FD: $5800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
With his play recently, Parker is basically etching his name into the rookie of the year trophy. Over his last five games, he is averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of those five outings. Tonight he squares off against an uptempo Mavericks team, that is currently ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SFs.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -7.5, 212 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Philadelphia | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.0 |  | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.25 | Team Proj. | 109.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.2 | Team Pace | 99.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Hollis Thompson | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 27 | 28 | 25 | 15 | Opp. Season | 9 | 28 | 30 | 17 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 30 | 10 | 21 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 15 | 27 | 20 | 9 | |
Philadelphia
I can’t wait for this game. We have two of the fastest-paced teams of the league squaring off. Not only that, but both teams are ranked in the bottom ten in almost every defensive category. This should be an extremely fast-paced, high scoring game with plenty of fantasy points to go around. Stacking is typically not a great strategy in daily fantasy basketball, but I wouldn’t hesitate to target 2-3 players from each team in this one.
Injury Note: Tony Wroten is out for tonight’s game. Nerlens Noel is expected to be back in the lineup.
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8600, DK: $8000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.7)
Anytime you can target MCW without Wroten or Wroten without MCW, you have to take advantage. Both are very good players, but both hurt each other’s fantasy value when they are on the court together. Luckily for us, MCW have the play-making duties to himself tonight with Wroten out. In his last two starts without Wroten, MCW has scored 51 and 44 fantasy points (FD scoring). His usage rate of 30.7 rivals that of Kobe Bryant and James Harden. MCW needs to be in as many lineups as possible tonight against the T-Wolves.
Secondary Plays
K.J. McDaniels (FD: $4700, DK: $5600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 19)
McDaniels has also played well in Wroten’s absence. While he doesn’t start, he has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last three games. He has scored 27, 39, and 32 fantasy points during that stretch. McDaniels should have another quality fantasy outing in an uptempo game against the T-Wolves, who are currently giving up 111.2 points per game to their opponents.
Minnesota
As mentioned above, this is one of, if not the best game to target tonight. Vegas has the T-Wolves listed as 7.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 212 points. The Sixers play at a very fast pace (100.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and are ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. The T-Wolves are projected to score 110 points tonight, which is a full 9 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Williams has been terrific ever since joining the starting lineup. As a starter, he is averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. His price on both FD and DK is still too cheap. Williams will continue to be a great target until his price increases. Tonight he squares off against the Sixers, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to PGs.
Corey Brewer (FD: $5000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Brewer has been my go-to guy at small forward ever since Kevin Martin went down with his injury. In eight starts this season, he is averaging 10 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals per game. Based on a 5x salary value system; Brewer only needs to score 25 fantasy points to reach value. That shouldn’t be too difficult, as he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He should excel in an uptempo game against the Sixers, who are very turnover prone.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6400, DK: $6900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
I’ve been hesitant to roster Dieng in cash games recently, because I’ve been scared of potential blowouts. He’s also had a couple of tough matchups in a row. That’s not the case tonight as the T-Wolves face the win-less Sixers. The Sixers are ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season and have allowed the second most fantasy points per 48 minutes to centers. Dieng could easily be in for his best game of the season tonight.
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6500, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
REVENGE GAME! While it’s hard to know if the revenge factor actually plays into a player’s fantasy production, it will certainly impact their mindset heading into the game, whether for the good or the bad. Young is very affordable on FD and should play well in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night. He’s my fourth favorite play on the T-Wolves tonight, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing against the Sixers.
Toronto at Utah
- Vegas Line – Toronto -4.5, 203 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| Toronto | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.75 | Team Proj. | 99.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.88 | Team Pace | 93.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 8 | 16 | 28 | 5 | Opp. Season | 22 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 27 | 12 | 19 | 14 | |
Toronto
The Raptors picked up a win over the Kings last night and will look to make it back-to-back road wins as they head to Utah to take on the Jazz. While the Jazz are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, what they lack in pace, they make up for in defensive inefficiencies. The Jazz are currently ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 101.1 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $8700, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Lowry has really played well in DeMar DeRozan’s absence. In his first two games without his back-court buddy, Lowry has scored 54 and 51 fantasy points (FD scoring). Obviously we can’t expect that type of production out of Lowry every night, but he remains an elite fantasy option. His usage rate continues to climb and he draws a decent matchup against the Jazz, who are ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to PGs per 48 minutes.
Greivis Vasquez (FD: $3900, DK: $4300 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Vasquez should be one of the most popular plays tonight. His price has yet to go up across the industry, even though he has played very well in DeMar DeRozan’s absence. In his two starts, Vasquez has scored 28 and 27 fantasy points (FD scoring). He should continue to see 30+ minutes of playing time tonight in a favorable matchup against the Jazz. Dollar for dollar, he may be the best play on the board tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah
Alec Burks has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Rodney Hood will likely start in his place. Derrick Favors is not listed on the injury report and is fully expected to play after sitting out Monday night’s game against the Nuggets with an illness. While the Raptors have a top-12 defense, they play at a very fast pace. The Jazz are projected to score 99 points tonight, which is 4 points more than their season average.
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7600, DK: $8000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Hayward was quiet in the first half of the Jazz’s loss to the Nuggets, but he came out firing in the second half. He salvaged his fantasy outing with 30 fantasy points. While I am from Utah, this pick is not a homer pick. Hayward has a high usage rate of 25.3 and a favorable matchup against the Raptors, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SFs. Hayward should also see a small boost with Burks out of the lineup, as he will likely be asked to do even more offensively.
Secondary Plays
Rodney Hood (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 18.2)
Who doesn’t love a starter that is minimum-priced? We haven’t seen a whole lot out of the rookie Hood this season, but he’ll likely see the majority of Burks’ minutes tonight. Even if he only ends up playing 25 minutes, he should be able to reach value against the uptempo Raptors.
Orlando at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -14.5, 202.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Oladipo-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Orlando | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.63 | Team Pace | 95.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 21 | Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 25 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 3 | 19 | 26 | 5 | |
Orlando
Nikola Vucevic was a late scratch last night against the Warriors and is currently considered questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers. If he is forced to sit, Kyle O’Quinn would make a very appealing value play. We likely won’t know Vucevic’s status until well after the first game tips off though. This is a tough spot for the Magic. They are playing the second half of a back-to-back and suffered a tough loss last night after Stephen Curry nailed a game winner with only four seconds left. This game could easily turn into a blowout. For that reason, I’ll be avoiding the Magic players in cash games. Tobias Harris may be worth a look as a tournament play though.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have won five straight games and are now 12-5 to open the season. The sad part is that 12-5 is only good enough for 7th place in the Western Conference standings. The Clippers will look to take their win streak to six games tonight against the Magic. This isn’t my favorite matchup. Not only are the Magic average defensively, but the Clippers are huge favorites. It’s tough to predict blowouts in the NBA, but I’d rather not risk it with nine other games on the schedule. For that reason, I will be avoiding Chris Paul and Blake Griffin tonight in cash games.
Elite Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $6800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 10.1)
Jordan’s usage rate has reached double-digits for the first time this season! Even though he cannot create his own shots, he doesn’t have to be ignored in daily fantasy basketball. Jordan’s price tag of $6,800 may be at the lowest point that we have seen it this season. Jordan has scored at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He should be able to reach that mark tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to centers.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Redick (FD: $4300, DK: $4100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Redick has gotten off to a slow start this season, but he has really played well in his last two games. He has scored 23 and 26 fantasy points in those two contests. Based on a 5x salary value system; Redick only needs to score just over 20 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He’s more than capable of that, especially since he is facing his former team.