NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Note: There are 13 games on the schedule tonight, so we will keep the team analysis to a minimum and instead focus on the picks.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Houston at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Houston -7, 197.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Dellavedova-Miller-Love-Thompson
| Houston | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 94.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Matthew Dellavedova | Mike Miller | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 28 | 17 | 19 | 9 | Opp. Season | 2 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 18 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 20 | |
Houston
The Rockets head to Cleveland to take on a LeBron-less Cavaliers team. Vegas has the Rockets listed as 7-point favorites in a game that has a total of 197.5 points. The Cavaliers are not an elite defensive team and have given up close to 100 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 19-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $10200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
If the Cavaliers decide to stick with their starting lineup, Harden will be matched up against Matthew Dellavedova. While Delly is a solid defender and good at drawing charges, he should have a hard time with Harden. Harden will be able to rise up and shoot over him at any time. Harden should also have no problem finishing at the rim, as the Cavaliers do not have an elite shot blocker in their lineup. Harden’s price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him a terrific target in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
There comes a point with every player when his price is cheap enough that he’s worth targeting. That’s the case with Ariza tonight. His price is at a season-low across the industry. While his usage rate in the offense isn’t high with all of the other weapons on the Rockets, he is still playing 35+ minutes per game. He only needs around 28 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he is certainly capable of tonight against the Cavaliers.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the 76ers. Granted, they were without LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Dion Waiters, but they still should have won that game, given their lead late in the fourth quarter. They will be without LeBron again tonight, but should have Kyrie Irving back in the lineup. They may also have newly-acquired J.R. Smith available to play, although the Cavaliers may try to ease him into the mix. Tonight’s matchup against the Rockets is a tough one. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 23-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (FD: $10100, DK: $10700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Love has had a terrific three-game stretch, averaging 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. While I’m expecting another good outing from him tonight, I’m not a fan of the combination of a tough matchup and an expensive price tag. Love has a great chance to score 40+ fantasy points tonight, but should have a tough time reaching the 50+ that he needs to reach value. I’d rather spend up elsewhere.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $6600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15)
Thompson has been terrific over his last seven games, averaging 13 points and 12 rebounds per game. The most promising statistic may be his playing time. He has played an average of 39 minutes per game during that stretch. He will have his hands full with Dwight Howard tonight, but is a candidate for another double-double as long as he can stay out of foul trouble.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Noel-Sims
| Milwaukee | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 94.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.42 | Team Pace | 99.22 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 29 | 30 | 25 | 20 | Opp. Season | 14 | 19 | 23 | 3 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 26 | 22 | 30 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are looking to bounce back after losing to the Suns last night. Vegas has them listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Sixers, who provide one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups on the schedule. The Sixers are a fast-paced team that has allowed their opponents to score an average of 104 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 5-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 104
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Knight is one of the few players whose price never seems to match his current level of production. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He has had a terrific season, averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He has a very high usage rate in the Bucks’ offense and draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Knight is one of the best point guard options in both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6300, DK: $6600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Antetokounmpo is gaining more and more confidence with every start. He is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks per game over his last five. His price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and this may be the last chance to take him at this price point. He does a little of everything on the floor and he is finally seeing starter’s minutes. He should have another productive outing tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5400, DK: $5800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Pachulia is no longer a dirt-cheap fantasy option at center, but he’s still in play tonight given his terrific matchup against the Sixers. The Sixers are the second-worst rebounding team in the NBA and have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to centers this season. Pachulia is averaging 28 fantasy points per game over his last seven and should have another productive outing tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers picked up an impressive win over the Cavaliers in Cleveland the other night. They will look to make it two in a row tonight against the Bucks. While the Bucks do rank high in terms of defensive efficiency, they are a very fast-paced team. The quick pace of play has led to the Bucks giving up an average of 99 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 18-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Covington should continue to play all of the minutes that he can handle. Over his last five games, he is averaging 36 minutes and 27 fantasy points per game. He will likely draw the start at small forward again tonight, which is a good position to play at against the Bucks. They have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Covington is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option tonight.
Secondary Plays
K.J. McDaniels (FD: $4400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
McDaniels hasn’t done much in his last few starts, but he is coming off of a solid game against the Cavaliers. He played 32 minutes and scored 22 fantasy points. We’ve seen the type of upside that he provides and his price is at a very playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is a little too risky to use in cash games, but makes a great upside play for tournaments.
New York at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -14, 188 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Larkin-Hardaway-Smith-Aldrich
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| New York | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 87.0 | Team Proj. | 101.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.54 | Team Pace | 95.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Shane Larkin | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Jason Smith | Cole Aldrich | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 3 | Opp. Season | 11 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 2 | 25 | 29 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 26 | |
New York
The Knicks made off like bandits in the three-team trade the other night. They got rid of two headaches and opened up a ton of cap space in the process. The problem is that they have only gotten worse in the short term. With Carmelo Anthony out again tonight, the Knicks will start an awful lineup consisting of Jose Calderon, Shane Larkin, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jason Smith, and Cole Aldrich. They are 14-point underdogs tonight for a reason.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 23-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
This is not a great matchup for Hardaway, but given the fact that the Knicks will be without their two best scorers (Anthony and Smith), Hardaway may end up with 20 shot attempts in this one. None of the Knicks are recommended cash game plays tonight, but Hardaway is worth a look as an upside play in tournaments.
Washington
The Wizards are 14-point favorites tonight against the Knicks at home. This game has blowout written all over it. While the matchup against the Knicks is favorable, I’m not going to risk a blowout on a night that features 12 other games on the schedule. Avoid the Wizards in cash games tonight. John Wall and Bradley Beal both make for intriguing tournament plays.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -4, 193 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
| New Orleans | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.99 | Team Pace | 94.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Season | 20 | 13 | 25 | 11 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 6 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 20 | 7 | 25 | 12 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans travel to Charlotte to take on the short-handed Hornets. The Pelicans have really struggled on the road this season, but are listed as 4-point favorites in this one. Both of these teams play at a slightly below average pace, which is why the total for the game is set at only 193 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 12-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11000, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Last season, Davis had much better splits at home. This season, the opposite is true. In 18 road games, Davis is averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2 steals per game. Davis has really grown as a player heading into 2015 and his teammates are relying on him more in tough environments. Davis is averaging nearly four more shot attempts per game on the road. He is the premier play at power forward tonight if you can find a way to get him into your lineups.
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte
The Hornets will be without Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson tonight, which means both Cody Zeller and Gerald Henderson will be in the starting lineup once again. The short-handed Hornets are still putting up a fight though, winning two games in a row. They will look for their third win in a row tonight against the Pelicans, who have been surprisingly bad on defense this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 17-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 101
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $9000, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Without Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson in the lineup, Walker’s usage rate has been off the charts. His fantasy production and price tag have both gone up considerably. While Jrue Holiday is typically thought of as an elite defender, the Pelicans have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to point guards this season. Walker needs around 45 fantasy point to reach value tonight, a feat that he has accomplished three times in his last six games.
Secondary Plays
Gerald Henderson (FD: $4900, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Henderson will likely fly under the radar tonight, given a small increase in price and the wealth of options in a 13-game slate. That said, Henderson has really played well recently, averaging 27 fantasy points per game over his last five. He is their second option offensively and he draws a favorable matchup against offensive-minded Eric Gordon.
Memphis at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 198 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Leuer-Randolph
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Memphis | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.97 | Team Pace | 96.42 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Jon Leuer | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 26 | 9 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Season | 4 | 24 | 11 | 14 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 23 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 5 | |
Memphis
As a basketball fan, this game intrigues me more than any other game on the schedule tonight. Two of the best teams (and most underrated) in the NBA square off in what is expected to be a very competitive game. As a DFS-player, this matchup leaves much to be desired. Both of these teams are ranked in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency and both have held their opponents under 98 points per game this season. It should be a fun one to watch, but there are better games to target in DFS.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 26-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8900, DK: $9300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Zach Randolph didn’t fully participate in shoot-around this morning, which leads me to believe that the Grizzlies will hold him out for at least one more game. Gasol will continue to man the middle on both ends of the floor for the Grizzlies. He has been an extremely reliable fantasy option this season, making him a solid target in cash games. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last ten games.
Mike Conley (FD: $8100, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Conley has been the biggest beneficiary of Randolph’s absence. His usage rate has been up and he’s provided some terrific fantasy outings. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He does draw a tough matchup against Jeff Teague and the Hawks, as they have held opposing point guards to the fewest fantasy points in the NBA this season.
Atlanta
The Hawks have won nine of their last ten games and currently sit atop the Eastern Conference standings. They continue to prove that they are not a fluke and that they are a force to be reckoned with. A win over the Grizzlies would really draw the attention of the casual basketball fan. While I do like their chances to pick up a win tonight, I will not be targeting them in any of my lineups tonight. With 12 other games on the schedule, there are more favorable matchups that we can exploit.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 25-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None