NBA Grind Down Wednesday, November 26th - Page Three
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Indiana at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 187 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Stuckey-Hill-Scola-Mahinmi
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Diaw
| Indiana | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187.0 |  | Vegas Total | 187.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 87.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.68 | Team Pace | 95.78 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | Luis Scola | Ian Mahinmi | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Boris Diaw | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 3 | 17 | 24 | 6 | Opp. Season | 23 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 21 | |
Indiana
Roy Hibbert has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Spurs. The short-handed Pacers will likely be on the wrong end of a shellacking by the Spurs. Vegas has them listed as 13-point underdogs, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game get out of hand by half-time. With 12 other games on the schedule, you don’t need to waste your roster spots on the Pacers.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ian Mahinmi (FD: $3900, DK: $3800 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Lavoy Allen (FD: $4500, DK: $3400 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
If you absolutely must have some Pacers exposure, the two best candidates to reach value tonight are Ian Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen. Both played fairly well in Hibbert’s absence the other night and both should see extended playing time again tonight. Of the two, I’d give Allen a slight edge as his minutes will be secure even if the game turns into a blowout.
San Antonio
Getting Pop’d is not a good feeling in daily fantasy basketball. While the Spurs haven’t played since Sunday, I’m still not excited about tonight’s matchup against the Pacers. Popovich does not play his starter’s anymore than absolutely necessary. As 13-point favorites tonight, it’s anyone’s guess as to how many minutes the starters are going to see. There is no reason to take unnecessary risks on a night with a full slate of games.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Leonard is the one Spurs player that I may have some exposure to in tournaments. He’s priced fairly and has shown that he has 40 fantasy point type of upside. Again, there are better options for cash games, but if the Pacers somehow keep this one close, Leonard could be in for a productive fantasy outing.
Denver at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -7, 215.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
| Denver | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.00 | Vegas Sprd | -7.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.25 | Team Proj. | 111.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.64 | Team Pace | 98.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Goran Dragic | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 2 | 23 | 15 | Opp. Season | 11 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 19 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 5 | |
Denver
The Nuggets picked up a win over the Bulls last night and now head to Phoenix to take on the Suns in the second half of a back-to-back. Coach Brian Shaw continues to mix up his rotations, which has led to very inconsistent fantasy play from the players. While I do love the matchup against the Suns, there are only two players that I trust to see a full complement minutes tonight.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8300, DK: $8500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Lawson has been a fantasy stud over his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 18 points, 2 rebounds, and 13 assists per game. His fantasy burst has caused a bump in his salary, but he’s still in play tonight against the Suns. This game has the highest total of the night at 216 points. Lawson is the engine of this offense and is in a good position to post another double-double tonight.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Over his last six games, Chandler is averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has scored at least 11 actual points in eight straight games. Tonight the Nuggets travel to take on the Suns in what is expected to be the highest scoring game of the night.
Chandler has
Phoenix
The Suns are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is by far the highest of any team tonight. The matchup is obviously one that we want to exploit if we can. The Nuggets are currently ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.1 points per game to their opponents.
Injury Note: Isaiah Thomas is questionable for tonight’s game. His absence would give a boost to Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Gerald Green.
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Bledsoe has been inconsistent this season, but he has scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He is starting to establish himself as the primary play-maker in this offense, as evidenced by his usage rate of 23.1 this season. The Nuggets will likely put Arron Afflalo on him, but Bledsoe will have a mis-match in terms of quickness. He should play well in tonight’s uptempo battle.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6800, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Morris has struggled with consistency this season, but in tournaments that doesn’t matter. All we care about is upside and Morris has just that. He has topped 35 fantasy points in two of his last four games. He draws a premier matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who have one of the worst interior defenses in the entire NBA.
Memphis at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6.5, 202 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer(Q)-Hill
| Memphis | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.25 | Team Proj. | 97.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.33 | Team Pace | 97.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 12 | Opp. Season | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 17 | 30 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 17 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies should be popular targets tonight. They have one of the best matchups on the board as they get to face the turnstile that is the Lakers defense. The Lakers are currently ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in rebounding differential, and are allowing their opponents to score an average of 111.6 points per game. Mike Conley is in play here, but again, he’s not listed because there are so many viable PG options tonight.
Elite Plays
Zach Randolph (FD: $7700, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Randolph has been Mr. Consistency this season. Whenever I need a player that I can rely on for cash games, I turn to Z-Bo. He is averaging 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season. He only managed to put up 11 points and 10 rebounds against the Lakers in their meeting a couple of weeks ago, but that game was an aberration. I’m predicting something more in the range of 20 points and 13 rebounds tonight.
Marc Gasol (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Gasol has scored at least 30 actual points in back-to-back games. He has channeled his inner Michael Jordan. While you can’t quote me on this, I’d imagine that this is the first time he’s scored 30+ points in two straight games. He draws another terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers who 1. have no interior defense and 2. do not rebound well. The only issue that I have with Gasol is his inflated price tag.
Secondary Plays
Courtney Lee (FD: $5200, DK: $4300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
If you are looking for value at SG, look no further than Mr. Lee. On the season he is averaging 13 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and my personal favorite 33 minutes per game. He should get plenty of open looks against the NBA’s worst defense.
L.A. Lakers
Carlos Boozer is questionable for tonight’s game against the Grizzlies. If he is forced to sit out, Ed Davis (probable) would draw another start in his place. Boozer’s absence would also give Jordan Hill a small fantasy boost. Fantasy-wise, this is a poor matchup for the Lakers. The Grizzlies are a very slow-paced team that is ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to only 92.4 points per game. The only reason to have any exposure to the Lakers tonight is if Boozer is ruled out.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None