NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 26th - Page Two
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New York at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -12.5, 200 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Shumpert-Smith-Acy-Dalembert
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| New York | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.0 |  | Vegas Total | 200.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.75 | Team Proj. | 106.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.9 | Team Pace | 95.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Iman Shumpert | J.R. Smith | Quincy Acy | Samuel Dalembert | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 15 | 22 | 10 | 9 | Opp. Season | 3 | 28 | 5 | 25 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 30 | 24 | 14 | 18 | |
New York
Carmelo Anthony is out for tonight’s game against the Mavericks. The Knicks will likely have a tough time scoring and this one could easily turn into a blowout. Vegas currently has the Knicks as 12.5-point underdogs. Anthony’s absence should give a small fantasy boost to both J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert, but with so many other games on the schedule, they are by no means must-plays.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Iman Shumpert (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Shumpert will likely be asked to shoulder some of the load offensively with Carmelo Anthony out. Shumpert has been quite in his last few games, but offers good upside for the price. It also doesn’t hurt that the Mavericks are a fast-paced team, which bodes well for Shumpert as he excels in transition.
J.R. Smith (FD: $4700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21)
Smith will draw the start for Carmelo Anthony tonight. His price on FanDuel is awfully tempting, but I’ll label him as a GPP-only play tonight against the Mavericks. While Smith does have a high ceiling, he doesn’t offer a very high floor.
Dallas
The Mavericks are typically one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. Not only are they well-balanced offensively, but they have a great bench that can turn 10-point leads into 20-point leads. The Mavericks have a +9.7 point differential per game this season and may be on the right end of another blowout tonight. Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler (revenge game) are both decent tournament plays, but it won’t hurt to fade this game altogether.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers at Detroit
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -8, 198 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Bullock-Griffin-Jordan
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
| L.A. Clippers | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.0 |  | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.1 | Team Pace | 93.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 7 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 10 | 18 | 6 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 29 | |
L.A. Clippers
Despite having an 8-5 record, the Clippers are somehow a disappointment in many people’s eyes this season. They have a good chance of picking up a road win tonight against the Pistons. This game does feature a low total, but the Clippers are projected to score 102.5 points tonight. The Pistons are right around the league average in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. Chris Paul is in play here, but he is not featured, because it’s going to be hard to pay up for him with all of the elite PG options on the board tonight.
Injury Note: Matt Barnes will not play tonight. Reggie Bullock will likely start in his place.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9200, DK: $9200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
Griffin’s price has come down a bit thanks to the fact that he has only played more than 34 minutes once in his last four games. It’s hard to predict blowouts in the NBA, but Griffin typically plays closer to 37 minutes per game when the game is close. Griffin draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing PFs per 48 minutes. Take advantage of his depressed price and target him in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 10)
Jordan’s usage rate is all the way up to 10 on the season. All kidding aside, Jordan makes for a decent tournament play tonight. His weakness on the offensive side of the floor keeps him off of my cash game radar, but he’s a threat for a double-double every night he takes the floor. He also has a good matchup against the Pistons, who have not defended centers well this season.
Detroit
Brandon Jennings missed last night’s game with a thumb injury. There hasn’t been an update on his status for tonight, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pistons hold him out, as they don’t play again until Friday. If Jennings is forced to miss tonight’s game, D.J. Augustin would draw another start at PG. He would immediately become one of the top value plays on the board, even in a tough matchup against Chris Paul.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $6900, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Experts around the industry are higher on Smith than I am tonight, but I’ll list him here as he does offer good upside at a depressed price point. Smith has 40 fantasy point upside in any matchup. I like the matchup tonight against the Clippers, who will start Reggie Bullock at SF.
Sacramento at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -5, 192.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Sessions-McLemore-Casspi-Thompson-Cousins
- Houston Proj. Starters – Canaan-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
| Sacramento | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192.5 |  | Vegas Total | 192.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.75 | Team Proj. | 98.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.45 | Team Pace | 96.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 5 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 10 | Opp. Season | 25 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 22 | 11 | 28 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 23 | 28 | 29 | 3 | |
Sacramento
Rudy Gay and Darren Collison are both out for tonight’s game against the Rockets. Omri Casspi and Ramon Sessions will both draw spot starts. In terms of the matchup, this one looks tough on paper, as the Rockets are ranked 1st in defensive efficiency this season. That said, the Rockets will be without two of their best defenders in Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley. A short-handed Kings leaves us with some very interesting plays tonight.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10200, DK: $10500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 32.6)
Cousins has some of the best 3 or 4 minute stretches that you are going to see in daily fantasy basketball. Take for instance last night. He had 17 fantasy points at halftime. Less than 5 minutes into the third quarter, his fantasy point total was already doubled. With Rudy Gay and Darren Collison out, he will be asked to shoulder the load offensively again tonight. It also doesn’t hurt that Dwight Howard is out. He’ll match up against the likes of Tarik Black and Donatas Motiejunas.
Omri Casspi (FD: $3600, DK: $3000 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.4)
With Rudy Gay out tonight, Casspi should be a staple in your cash game lineups. He’s close to minimum salary on both FD and DK. He should see 30+ minutes of action in Gay’s absence. He played very well last night with 30.3 fantasy points (FD scoring). As I like to say, FIRE HIM UP as a top value play tonight.
Ramon Sessions (FD: $3600, DK: $4500 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
Sessions will draw another start at PG tonight. Luckily for him, he will match up against Isaiah Canaan, as Patrick Beverley has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. Sessions played well in last night’s win over the Pelicans and should be considered one of the top value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston
Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley have both been ruled out for tonight’s game. While Isaiah Canaan and Tarik Black will be in the starting lineup, James Harden and Kostas Papanikolaou are the biggest beneficiaries of the injuries. The total for this game is set at only 192.5 points, but I’m predicting a track meet from these teams tonight, as both teams average over 96 possessions per 48 minutes this season.
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10300, DK: $10400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Harden already has an insanely high usage rate. It only goes up with Dwight Howard out of the lineup. Over his last two games, he has posted 48 and 52 fantasy points (FD scoring) without Howard in the lineup. He can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and should be considered right up there with LeBron James as the top overall fantasy option of the night.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6000, DK: $6000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
While it hasn’t been the case over the last two games, I still expect Ariza to pick up some of the lost production with Howard and Beverley out of the lineup. On the season, he is averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He’s a player that is capable of handling 40+ minutes per night. His price of only $6,000 is too low. He should crack the 30 fantasy point mark tonight, especially since he won’t have to deal with Rudy Gay.
Secondary Plays
Kostas Papanikolaou (FD: $4300, DK: $3800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
Over his last four games, Papanikolaou has averaged 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He should continue to see extended playing time tonight with Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones still out.
Milwaukee at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Milwuakee -1.5, 203 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams(Q)-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Milwaukee | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.25 | Team Proj. | 100.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.5 | Team Pace | 98.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 16 | 27 | 20 | 13 | Opp. Season | 18 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 24 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 28 | 7 | 7 | 22 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks have been a pleasant surprise this season. They are 8-7 and currently sit as the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in what is expected to be a fast-paced game. This is a favorable matchup for the Bucks, as the Wolves are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, giving up 110.3 points per game to their opponents this season.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7400, DK: $7100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Knight continues to stuff the stat sheet. While he offers immense upside, his ownership levels continue to be low. While I agree that it is tough to trust any of the Bucks players with Jason Kidd as the head coach, it’s time to start buying in on Knight. He is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He should have a mis-match tonight regardless of whether Mo Williams or Zach LaVine starts.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5700, DK: $6200 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21)
Giannis has been inconsistent this season, but it appears that the Bucks are going to give him all the minutes he can handle, which is promising for his fantasy appeal. He makes a solid tournament play tonight against the Wolves, who have struggled against opposing SFs this season.
Larry Sanders (FD: $5500, DK: $3900 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Sanders is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. He is only $3,900, which is a steal for a player with his upside. His playing time has been a concern, but Sanders is a candidate to reach 6x or 7x value as a tournament play.
Minnesota
Here is a quick update on the Wolves’ injury situation: Nikola Pekovic is out, Mo Williams is listed as a game-time decision, and Thaddeus Young is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. With Young back in the mix, we can safely ignore Shabazz Muhammed and Anthony Bennett for our purposes. Fantasy-wise, this isn’t a great matchup. The Bucks are ranked 8th in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to 98.5 points per game.
Elite Plays
Corey Brewer (FD: $4700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Brewer will draw another start at SG with Kevin Martin out. He has really played well when given extended playing time this season. He’s a good scorer and his ability to defend adds a few blocks/steals every now and then. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of my favorite plays at SF tonight.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6100, DK: $6500 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 15.9)
Dieng will draw another start at center with Nikola Pekovic out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dieng have his best start of the season tonight. Thaddeus Young is a nice complement to Dieng as he plays outside-in, while Dieng only plays inside the paint. His price is a bit higher than I’d like to see it, but the Bucks have struggled to defend centers this season.
Utah at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -4.5, 182.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Roberson-Thomas-Ibaka-Adams
| Utah | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 182.0 |  | Vegas Total | 182.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.0 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.96 | Team Pace | 93.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Andre Roberson | Lance Thomas | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 18 | Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 22 | 4 | |
Utah
The Jazz may be in the worst matchup tonight in terms of potential fantasy production. Not only do the Jazz struggle on the road, but they are facing a Thunder team that is one of the slowest-paced teams in the leagues. The Jazz are only projected to score 89 points tonight, which is by far the lowest of any team. There’s just not enough production to go around tonight for the Jazz. For that reason, I’ll be fading them completely.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City
While this game is expected to be the slowest-paced game of the night, the Thunder still have a decent matchup against the Jazz. On the season, the Jazz are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.1 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $8100, DK: $7700 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 27.5)
Jackson’s one bad game this season came against the Jazz, but I have a feeling that he will be out for revenge tonight. Jackson still has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA and he is still averaging close to 40 minutes of playing time per game. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant nearing a return, Jackson will try to enjoy being the go-to guy for at least one more game.
Secondary Plays
None