NBA Player Props and DFS Picks for Monday, February 28th
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We’ve got a fun slate of NBA action on the docket for the last day of February, and we’re ready to place some wagers on Monkey Knife Fight. Check out our favorite three props on MKF, and let’s make ourselves some scratch to start to the week!
All NBA player props are from Monkey Knife Fight. All stats are from Pro Basketball Reference.
More or Less – Pick 2/2 Correctly to Make 3.6x Your Buy-in
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Charlotte: OVER 31.5 Points
The Greek Freak has increased his monthly points production in each of the last three months – he averaged 28.9 points per game in December, 31.5 ppg in January, and now 32.9 ppg in February. Either he’s kicking it into high gear to remain in the MVP conversation or he’s trying to propel the fifth-place Bucks (36-25) into a top-four seed to assure Milwaukee at least one home-court playoff series. Regardless of Antetokounmpo’s motivations, he’s obviously motivated – and Khris Middleton just isn’t providing his usual offensive punch in his complementary role. The Hornets don’t have the bigs to slow down Giannis – Mason Plumlee, P.J. Washington, and Montrezl Harrell just won’t cut it – the two-time MVP has scored 109 points in 109 minutes against Charlotte this season (36.3 ppg), and he should coast to 32 or more points for the fourth time in six games tonight.
DeMar Derozan at Miami: OVER 30.5 Points
Deebo has scored at least 31 points in ten consecutive games, and he’s looking like a lock for MVP consideration. He’s practically unguardable in the clutch in big games, always getting to his spots and shooting lights-out. DeRozan leads the NBA in total points – and he’s fourth in scoring average with 28.3 points per game – yet he’s shooting .517 despite mainly shooting from mid-range (he leads the league with 553 two-point field goals – the player with the next-most two-pointers, Nikola Jokic, has 448). It helps that DeRozan gets to the line so often – he averages eight free throw attempts per game – and he’s shooting 86.4 percent from the stripe. Miami guard Kyle Lowry won’t be playing this evening for personal reasons, so the Heat will be undermanned defensively against the Bulls’ Big Three of DeRozan, Zack Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic. Count on Deebo to score another 31 in South Beach tonight.
Rapidfire – Draft a Winner in Each of the 2 Matchup Categories (2/2 correct = 3x Your Buy-in)
Points (TOR @ BKN): Seth Curry (Bonus: +5.5 Points) Over Pascal Siakam
Curry has hit the ground running since landing in Brooklyn after the Harden-Simmons trade. The three-point marksman has logged at least 19 points in four of his five games as a Net, a number he had only reached once between January 8 and February 8 as a Sixer. With no Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, or Ben Simmons tonight, Curry should see minutes in the 30s and shot attempts in the teens. I’ll take him over Siakam, who hasn’t cleared 18 points since before Valentine’s Day. You’re getting a five-point handicap for Curry at home – this feels like a no-brainer.
Rebounds (TOR @ BKN): Andre Drummond Over Precious Achiuwa (+3.5 Rebounds)
Another Net who has been fitting in quite nicely is veteran big man Andre Drummond. Many people forget that Drummo is not far removed from being the NBA King of the Boards, and he can still wreak havoc down low when he applies himself. Plus, I don’t think Achiuwa has been that impressive for Toronto. We’ve seen the Big Sneeze register double-digit rebounds just once since January 18! Drummond has averaged 11 boards per game in five games as a Net! Even with the +3.5, I’m staying away from Precious.
Triple-Doubling – Draft Three Players from at Least Two Teams (0.5 = 1.2x, 1.5 = 3x, 2.5 = 20x)
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Charlotte
Dejounte Murray at Memphis
LaMelo Ball at Milwaukee
You already know how I feel about Giannis Antetokounmpo at home against Charlotte – the dude is going to rake this evening, and he’s going to have his home crowd chanting MVP all game. The Greek Freak came extremely close to triple-doubles in two of Milwaukee’s three tilts with the Hornets this season – in their first meeting, he had 40/12/9 and in the last matchup he had 26/13/8. The Bucks are just 5-5 in their last ten games, and Giannis is probably just outside the top three in MVP voting. I think he notches his fifth triple-double of the season tonight.
Do you know who ranks second in the NBA in triple-doubles, just behind “(player-popup #nikola-jokic)Nikola Jokic”:/players/nikola-jokic-31812’s 16? The Spurs’ Dejounte Murray, with 12. The first-time All-Star has been a revelation in his first full season as San Antonio’s Alpha Dog. Murray has two triple-dubs in the Spurs’ past five games, and six in their last 18 games. And we all know he’ll get up against Ja Morant and the confident young Grizzlies in Music City.
My regular readers know I had to include my favorite young star in this prop. LaMelo Ball continues to impress us with his all-around game and genius-level basketball IQ, and he’s always a threat to flirt with a triple-double. He’s got five on the season, and while it’s a stretch to think he’ll go off against a quality defensive team like Milwaukee, you never know with Ball. He’s never one to back down from a tough matchup, and he always gives it his all when he’s on the floor. He’s averaging 26/6/7 against the Bucks this season – throw him in the prop, and bet on OVER 0.5 or 1.5 to triple-double. Betting all three to triple-double would be like throwing cash into the furnace.
Image Credit: Imagn