Three Tips to Use for Betting During the NBA Restart
The NBA is back! There are two games Thursday night and then we have at least four games every single day until August 14 before the NBA playoffs begin on August 17.
We are in unprecedented times in the world of sports and that means we are in unprecedented times in the world of sports betting. Oddsmakers have plenty of experience when it comes to normal NBA handicapping, but this unique restart should level the playing field a bit for those on the other side of the counter.
From a betting perspective, there are three things I’m looking to take advantage of when it comes to NBA odds during the upcoming weeks. Each has the potential to give us a significant edge and, more importantly, make us some money.
Who Has Motivation in the NBA Restart?
This is always a factor anytime you’re betting on the NBA or playing NBA DFS. Ideally every single player would give 100% every single time they step on the court, but this isn’t an ideal world and these certainly aren’t ideal circumstances. There are some guys who play every game like it’s their last (shoutout Marcus Smart), but the large majority of players pick their spots and conserve their energy for the right moments. Player motivation during the 2020 Restart will be more of a factor than ever before, and NBA bettors should look closely and capitalize on this.
Before we get to the playoffs, nine teams from the East and 13 teams from the West will each play eight games to set the playoff field. Twelve teams have already clinched playoff berths and will strictly be playing for seeding. The remaining 10 teams will be competing for the last three spots in each conference. In each conference, the 9th seed can force a play-in tournament if they finish fewer than 4 games behind the 8th seed. They would have to then beat the 8th seed in two consecutive play-in games to clinch the 8th and final playoff spot.
The teams who are yet to clinch a playoff berth obviously have plenty of motivation right now. Every game matters until they either clinch or are mathematically eliminated, so there is no questioning their motivation. The teams I’m more concerned about are the ones who have already clinched a spot and are playing purely for seeding. During most NBA seasons, teams are motivated to get the highest seed possible to claim home-court advantage in the playoffs. But with every playoff game being played at a neutral site this year, will anybody really concern themselves with seeding?
Is 35-year-old LeBron James going to be diving for loose balls to make sure the Lakers maintain the No. 1 seed in the West? Just so they can have a “1” next to their name in the playoffs and have the bubble arena use a yellow and purple lighting scheme in four of the seven games? I don’t see it. If I were an NBA coach or player on a team who has already clinched a playoff spot, I would be treating the first eight games like it’s the preseason. I’d use them as an opportunity to condition and build team chemistry again rather than focus on the scoreboard.
The Bottom Line: Teams who are still fighting for a playoff spot will have an edge over teams who have already clinched or been eliminated.
Weekend Motivation Edge:
- Mavericks over Rockets, Friday, 7/31
- Pelicans over Clippers, Saturday, 8/1
- Trail Blazers over Celtics, Sunday, 8/2
What Happens to Home Court in the NBA Bubble?
The lack of home-court advantage is a tricky detail to evaluate ahead of the 2020 Restart, but playing in an empty, neutral stadium will inevitably affect the teams and players one way or another. There are a few things to consider here. Players or teams who feed off the crowd and love the energy in NBA stadiums could struggle playing in an empty building. On the other hand, players who feel the pressure from the crowd when playing on the road could thrive in this setting.
It will be interesting to see how the teams and players with significant home/road splits perform in the bubble. Take the Sixers for example: They were an incredible 29-2 at home before the shutdown but an embarrassingly awful 10-24 on the road. That discrepancy could be because they feed off the energy of the Wells Fargo Center so they’re better at home. It could also be because they can’t handle the pressure of playing in front of opposing crowds. Or it could be that they play better when they get to sleep in their own beds.
The truth is that it’s probably a combination of different factors, but all we care about is which Sixers team is going to show up in Orlando, right? Are we going to see the team that had an NBA-best 29-2 record at home? Or will we see the team that had a putrid 10-24 record on the road?
The Bottom Line: I’ll be looking at all the teams with significant home/road splits early in the Restart. If they look good early, they’ll have an edge throughout. If they struggle, they could be in for a rough month in the bubble.
Teams to Watch:
- Philadelphia 76ers (29-2 Home, 10-24 Road)
- Miami Heat (27-5 Home, 14-19 Road)
- Washington Wizards (16-16 Home, 8-24 Road)
- Portland Trail Blazers (18-14 Home, 11-23 Road)
- Brooklyn Nets (18-14 Home, 12-20 Road)
- Memphis Grizzlies (18-15 Home, 14-18 Road)
- Dallas Mavericks (19-15 Home, 21-12 Road…)
What are NBA Public Betting Trends Telling Us?
The third key thing to consider during the 2020 Restart is who the public money on. Fading the public has always been a simple, popular way to gain a slight edge when betting on sports. The strategy makes sense: if a large majority of people are on one side of a bet, the line should be skewed toward that team which would give the opposite side an edge. In reality, it’s just not that simple. If you faded the public in every single game in every single sport, you would lose in the long run.
But the restart could be different. Sports betting is becoming legalized and is slowly becoming more commonplace across the country. Sites like DraftKings and FanDuel are offering specials to incentivize new people to sign up this weekend. As more people sign up and start betting, we could potentially see the public have a much larger influence on these games and give us even more of an edge when fading the popular, chalky bets. I won’t go in blind, but I’ll be tracking how teams perform against the spread when more than 65% of the public is on them to see whether there’s a potential edge.
You can view who the public is betting on at Scores and Odds.
Sports are back baby—we have NBA, PGA, NHL, and MLB all this week. Let’s make some money.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images