NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/14/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
NBA DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Zach LaVine
Zach LaVine headlines the list of Questionable players for Monday’s nine-game slate with lingering soreness in his knee. LaVine’s absence would open up a ton of offensive responsibility as he’s posted a 29.2% usage rate and 20.6% assist rate this season.
LaVine has missed 13 games this season and DeMar DeRozan has gone absolute beast mode with LaVine off the court, with a ridiculous 37.6% usage rate (+5.5%), resulting in nearly four more points scored per 36 minutes. While not nearly as drastic, DeRozan has also seen an increase in assist rate (+2.9%) when not sharing the court with Lavine this season.
Using ScoresAndOdds, we can see that books have released props for DeMar DeRozan despite LaVine’s Questionable tag and I am interested in nearly every single Over. Current projections at RotoGrinders have LaVine projected as playing (35 minutes) yet still show DeRozan’s Overs as favorable bets, projecting DDR for 31.74 points, 6.54 rebounds, and 4.97 assists. If LaVine does sit, it’s safe to expect these lines to jump. My favorite of all DeRozan’s props is Over 30.5 points.
Rudy Gobert
Rudy Gobert is listed as Questionable on Monday’s injury report with a foot sprain. As a low usage player (16.8%) Gobert isn’t the traditional player we look at in this article but his absence is still impactful defensively and in the minutes it frees up.
Gobert has missed 15 games this season and in most cases his absence has opened up the door for Hassan Whiteside and Udoka Azubuike to split minutes almost right down the middle at the Center position. However Azubuike, who is listed OUT with an ankle sprain on Monday night, also missed Utah’s last game and the result was 35 minutes of court time for Whiteside who finished the game with a monster 12/21 line. While we shouldn’t rely on Whiteside to replicate the line he posted on Saturday if Gobert misses again, he should be locked into a larger role than he’s typically played this season.
Books have yet to release props for Jazz players – and they may not until Gobert’s status is solidified (Bojan Bogdanovic is also Q) – but it’s worth keeping an eye on to see where Whiteside’s props open if Gobert is unable to suit up. Donovan Mitchell’s props are also worth monitoring as he’s been a small winner with Gobert off the court this season, averaging +0.74 rebounds and +0.4 assists per 36 minutes.
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