NBA Situational Player Projections | DFS & Betting Props Analysis (3/8/22)
This article will take a look at some of the most impactful injuries of the day and how a player’s availability, or lack thereof, influences things from both an NBA DFS and sports betting perspective. You can take a look at today’s injuries on RotoGrinders in the Situation Room.
Notable NBA Injuries – DFS Player Projections & Props Impact
Jalen Suggs
After a day full of notable Questionable tags on Monday things are a bit quieter on Tuesday. Jalen Suggs currently has the highest Impact Rating (7) of all Q players in RotoGrinders’ Situation Room.
Suggs missed Orlando’s last game on Saturday with a sprained ankle and didn’t participate in shootaround on Tuesday morning. Suggs’ absence pushed R.J. Hampton into the starting lineup on Saturday and Hampton logged 33.5 minutes in a blowout loss. Hampton would become one of the better DFS value options if Suggs is unable to suit up and Hampton enters the starting lineup.
While it’s unlikely we’ll see any R.J. Hampton props released, sportsbooks do have early lines posted for Cole Anthony. Anthony has been the biggest winner when Suggs has missed games this season as he’s seen modest rate boosts to pair with increased court time. Anthony played a whopping 21 first half minutes against the Grizzlies on Saturday and would have likely finished the game in the upper 30’s minutes played if the Magic were able to keep the game closer.
Current projections at RotoGrinders assume Jalen Suggs suits up and project Anthony for 32 minutes of action. Despite this conservative projection, Anthony still projects for slightly more Points & Rebounds (21.18) than the current 20.5 listed at a variety of books according to ScoresAndOdds.
I like the idea of locking in the over on Cole Anthony 20.5 Points and Rebounds. Worst case scenario you’re looking at a slightly favorable bet if Suggs plays and if news breaks your way you’re likely getting 1-2 points of closing line value.
Phoenix Suns
As I mentioned above, Tuesday is a pretty uneventful day in the Questionable tag world. I considered writing about Isaiah Roby (Darius Bazley over rebounds?) but ultimately decided it would be more fun to take a look at the Phoenix Suns situation.
The Suns will once again be shorthanded when they suit up to take on the Magic with key rotation pieces in Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Cameron Johnson all OUT. We got a look at what Phoenix looked like with similar personnel in Sunday’s loss to the Bucks so let’s take a look at the key takeaway.
The starters played heavy minutes with Elfrid Payton and Ish Wainwright still not part of the rotation. Perhaps the most notable jump in playing time was Jae Crowder who saw 34 minutes of action compared to the 28.4 minutes per game he’s averaged to this point in the season. Will Crowder’s increase in playing time stick or will he drop back down closer to his season average? The projections team at RotoGrinders seem to think the minutes will stick – and I tend to agree as long as Cam Johnson is out – as they have Crowder with a 35-minute projection for Tuesday’s game. With that minutes projection, Crowder’s over props stand out as some of the best bets of the day.
Scouring ScoresAndOdds’ prop finder, Cameron Payne Over 26.5 Points & Assists also stands out as one of the best prop bets of the day. Payne’s minutes limit was lifted after just one game as he logged 32 minutes and 35 minutes in Phoenix’s last two games. He also soared past the 26.5 Points & Assists line in those two games with marks of 33 and 31. The biggest threat to the over here is Payne not getting the necessary minutes but his current role seems solidified as long as CP3 and Booker remain out.
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