NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 16th

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Friday, March 16th

It was just a few weeks ago that many NBA fans felt the Celtics had the best chance to dethrone the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. What a difference a few weeks can make. Boston is just 6-6 in its last 12 games, including losing its last two games to conference rivals Indiana and Washington. The skid has coincided with a rash of injuries, including Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart missing varying amounts of time.

Why does this matter for DFS-purposes? Because when a team like Boston is a) short handed and b) wanting to build positive momentum, we can safely project they’re going to keep its A-squad on the floor for a lot of the game. Irving and Brown are out tonight and Smart is out for the rest of the season, so the distribution of minutes should be easier to figure out than normal. That’s a rare thing for an NBA team in March.

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  • dethdealers

    EC, applying the same logic but using DK pricing, what are your similar thoughts?? Thanks, DETH

  • jakz101

    • $1M Prize Winner

    • x5

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    @dethdealers said...

    EC, applying the same logic but using DK pricing, what are your similar thoughts?? Thanks, DETH

    Come on you can figure this out! Just open up HQ and plug the projections in. Let me know what you get!

  • Kmasonbx

    This type of article is so much more helpful than a pure picks article. The best part for me is the things you napped out is what I did when trying to figure out if Rozier was worth 8k on DK. Thanks for this!

  • dethdealers

    Welllll, assuming my math is correct, with the slightly softer DK pricing on these key BOS players, ( with Monroe being the exception pricewise), I’m getting M. Morris as being the best projection followed closely by Horford. Thanks Again for the original research!!

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