NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 16th
When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.
Friday, March 16th
It was just a few weeks ago that many NBA fans felt the Celtics had the best chance to dethrone the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. What a difference a few weeks can make. Boston is just 6-6 in its last 12 games, including losing its last two games to conference rivals Indiana and Washington. The skid has coincided with a rash of injuries, including Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart missing varying amounts of time.
Why does this matter for DFS-purposes? Because when a team like Boston is a) short handed and b) wanting to build positive momentum, we can safely project they’re going to keep its A-squad on the floor for a lot of the game. Irving and Brown are out tonight and Smart is out for the rest of the season, so the distribution of minutes should be easier to figure out than normal. That’s a rare thing for an NBA team in March.
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