NBA Situational Projections: Friday, March 16th

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Friday, March 16th

It was just a few weeks ago that many NBA fans felt the Celtics had the best chance to dethrone the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. What a difference a few weeks can make. Boston is just 6-6 in its last 12 games, including losing its last two games to conference rivals Indiana and Washington. The skid has coincided with a rash of injuries, including Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart missing varying amounts of time.

Why does this matter for DFS-purposes? Because when a team like Boston is a) short handed and b) wanting to build positive momentum, we can safely project they’re going to keep its A-squad on the floor for a lot of the game. Irving and Brown are out tonight and Smart is out for the rest of the season, so the distribution of minutes should be easier to figure out than normal. That’s a rare thing for an NBA team in March.

Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day

  • To read this full article for today’s NBA games, you need to have a subscription to FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft Premium, our paid content package.
  • A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article and more.
Start your FREE 7-day trial

About the Author

jakz101
Eric Crain (jakz101)

Eric Crain, aka jakz101, is a former professional poker player who started playing DFS full time in October of 2015. He has qualified multiple times for live finals and is routinely ranked at the top of all the major sport leaderboards. Perhaps his biggest claim to fame is when he won the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker in October of 2016 (as well as finishing 3rd and 4th). A popular RotoGrinders contributor, Crain hosts multiple shows each week and often provides excellent in-depth written analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members.

RotoGrinders AMA

RotoGrinders Interview After Winning DK Millionaire Maker

The Mindset Advantage Podcast Interview

High Roller Radio Interview