NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, February 14th

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Wednesday, February 14th

It’s rare that we get a game where conditions are nearly perfect from a DFS standpoint. On tonight’s 12-game slate though, that’s exactly what we have in the Lakers/Pelicans matchup. When I talk about the DFS conditions being near-perfect, there are a few reasons for this. They’re simple and obvious, but still should be taken note of.

A. The game has a total of 229.5, which is the highest total on the slate and one of the highest totals in the NBA this season.
B. The spread is just Pelicans -5, meaning that a blowout is unlikely.
C. Both teams are running thin rotations due to either trades or injuries.

Everything adds up here. The Lakers finally narrowed its rotation when they traded away Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. The Pelicans have run a narrow rotation all year, but since DeMarcus Cousins went down with an injury the minutes for the starters are even more secure.

Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day

  • To read this full article for today’s NBA games, you need to have a subscription to FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft Premium, our paid content package.
  • A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article and more.
Start your FREE 7-day trial

About the Author

  • Eric Crain (jakz101)

  • Eric Crain, aka jakz101 , is a former professional poker player who started playing DFS full time in October of 2015. He is a eight-time live finalist who specializes in tournament play and is ranked in the top-40 of three different sports (NFL, NBA, MLB). He had his biggest win in October of 2016, when he won $1.2 million by finishing 1st, 3rd, and 4th in the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker. Crain hosts multiple shows every week on RotoGrinders.

Comments

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.