NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, February 14th

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Wednesday, February 14th

It’s rare that we get a game where conditions are nearly perfect from a DFS standpoint. On tonight’s 12-game slate though, that’s exactly what we have in the Lakers/Pelicans matchup. When I talk about the DFS conditions being near-perfect, there are a few reasons for this. They’re simple and obvious, but still should be taken note of.

A. The game has a total of 229.5, which is the highest total on the slate and one of the highest totals in the NBA this season.
B. The spread is just Pelicans -5, meaning that a blowout is unlikely.
C. Both teams are running thin rotations due to either trades or injuries.

Everything adds up here. The Lakers finally narrowed its rotation when they traded away Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. The Pelicans have run a narrow rotation all year, but since DeMarcus Cousins went down with an injury the minutes for the starters are even more secure.

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Comments

  • Kmasonbx

    Love this new article Eric. Reall appreciate the time it takes and gives me some insight into what a top player is looking at.

  • jakz101

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    @Kmasonbx said...

    Love this new article Eric. Reall appreciate the time it takes and gives me some insight into what a top player is looking at.

    Thanks!

  • KillerBrees09

    This is one of my favorite articles. This really takes the analysis a step further than most, and has really helped me with my own projections. Nice work, Eric!

  • Boomtown25

    Crain: Like the article but interested in any chance that you can share a detailed approach on how you build your own projections each day???

  • YAPPYKAPPY

    Great stuff sir I definitely appreciate the info!! You mentioned at the end there about picking players just to pick them is a bad idea(I agree completely). If I am doing one lineup(which I normally do)and were picking players from this game. Lets say two players from this.. looking at the info you have provided Randle and AD?

  • Gillik9486

    @YAPPYKAPPY said...

    Great stuff sir I definitely appreciate the info!! You mentioned at the end there about picking players just to pick them is a bad idea(I agree completely). If I am doing one lineup(which I normally do)and were picking players from this game. Lets say two players from this.. looking at the info you have provided Randle and AD?

    Yes

  • jakz101

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    @YAPPYKAPPY said...

    Great stuff sir I definitely appreciate the info!! You mentioned at the end there about picking players just to pick them is a bad idea(I agree completely). If I am doing one lineup(which I normally do)and were picking players from this game. Lets say two players from this.. looking at the info you have provided Randle and AD?

    That’s where I would go, with perhaps Jrue and/or Rondo. That group has the best point per dollar based on the projections and the players absolutely have upside as well.

  • Joe1Coal

    Great article. A+ Information.

  • Bruinsfan79

    Great stuff Eric, as usual some of the best day to day analysis is the stuff you put out. I’ve won many a dollar based on your analysis and information. Thank you for your great work sir.

  • jakz101

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    Appreciate the kind words. This is going to be featured on Rotogrinders at least 2 times a week for the rest of the season. Glad you guys are enjoying it! It’s actually a blast to write.

  • huntercost35

    Thanks Crain. Really great stuff, especially on days like today, where I have less time than normal to research. Much appreciated, sir!

  • cubanoshake10

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