NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, February 14th
When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.
Wednesday, February 14th
It’s rare that we get a game where conditions are nearly perfect from a DFS standpoint. On tonight’s 12-game slate though, that’s exactly what we have in the Lakers/Pelicans matchup. When I talk about the DFS conditions being near-perfect, there are a few reasons for this. They’re simple and obvious, but still should be taken note of.
A. The game has a total of 229.5, which is the highest total on the slate and one of the highest totals in the NBA this season.
B. The spread is just Pelicans -5, meaning that a blowout is unlikely.
C. Both teams are running thin rotations due to either trades or injuries.
Everything adds up here. The Lakers finally narrowed its rotation when they traded away Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance. The Pelicans have run a narrow rotation all year, but since DeMarcus Cousins went down with an injury the minutes for the starters are even more secure.
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