NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, February 28th

When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.

Wednesday, February 28th

We’re nearing the end of the NBA season, which means we have teams tanking and teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot. Typically, I like to focus on games that include the latter instead of the former. After all, it can be very difficult to know which players are going to see significant minutes on a nightly basis when a team has nothing to play for outside of ping pong balls.

When teams on opposite sides of the spectrum play each other, I rely on Vegas to let me know if a game is supposed to stay close or not. Even if it is, the game can oftentimes be ‘hidden’ on a big slate, which is the situation we find today between the Pacers and Hawks.

Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day

  • To read this full article for today’s NBA games, you need to have a subscription to FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft Premium, our paid content package.
  • A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article and more.
Start your FREE 7-day trial

About the Author

jakz101
Eric Crain (jakz101)

Eric Crain, aka jakz101, is a former professional poker player who started playing DFS full time in October of 2015. He has qualified multiple times for live finals and is routinely ranked at the top of all the major sport leaderboards. Perhaps his biggest claim to fame is when he won the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker in October of 2016 (as well as finishing 3rd and 4th). A popular RotoGrinders contributor, Crain hosts multiple shows each week and often provides excellent in-depth written analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members.

RotoGrinders AMA

RotoGrinders Interview After Winning DK Millionaire Maker

The Mindset Advantage Podcast Interview

High Roller Radio Interview