NBA Situational Projections: Wednesday, February 28th
When I first got into NBA DFS, the phrase I kept hearing was “minutes = money.” The concept is simple enough: A player averages a certain number of points per minute, and if he gets a certain number of minutes, we can expect him to be one of the best point per dollar scorers on the slate. Unfortunately, as we’ve all learned, not all projections are created equal. Every day, I build my own projection set for NBA. Some days, that’s easy. If a team has a neutral matchup and isn’t missing any bodies, a base set of projections works just fine. Other days though, especially as the NBA season rolls along, it gets a lot more complicated.
Wednesday, February 28th
We’re nearing the end of the NBA season, which means we have teams tanking and teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot. Typically, I like to focus on games that include the latter instead of the former. After all, it can be very difficult to know which players are going to see significant minutes on a nightly basis when a team has nothing to play for outside of ping pong balls.
When teams on opposite sides of the spectrum play each other, I rely on Vegas to let me know if a game is supposed to stay close or not. Even if it is, the game can oftentimes be ‘hidden’ on a big slate, which is the situation we find today between the Pacers and Hawks.
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