NBA Starting 5 (GPP): Friday, February 3rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
What is up everyone? Welcome back to another edition of the NBA GPP Starting 5. Man does time fly. We are already into February and over halfway into the NBA season.
On to my rant of the week, and that is tournament sizing. I can somewhat understand why they do it, but that still does not make it right. It just makes no sense why some of these fantasy sites would have larger tournaments on smaller slates than they do on larger slates. Instead, just have the same-sized tournaments every night. With how the industry has grown, they are going to fill regardless. I just wanted to put that out there, so enough of that.
We are getting back on track as of late after having another solid week of picks. One thing I would like to mention is that these picks are done earlier in the day, so follow me on Twitter for my updates if someone were to be a late scratch. Hopefully I can repeat the recent success and get to the golden five-for-five that we all love to see.
As usual, these picks are tournament only, unless stated otherwise. Today we have a nice nine-game slate, so let’s take a look.
Point Guard: Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies – $7,100 on DraftKings
What a surprise! I don’t have Lillard listed here. Everyone knows how badly I wanted to pick him, but I won’t because he has been very poor lately and you all know my opinion on him. Instead, I will go with Mike Conley, who has been playing some great basketball as of late and is one of the most underrated point guards in the NBA. Memphis has been playing some decent ball lately, thanks to Conley and Gasol. The guard has been solid from deep in his last four games (46%) and has also been there in the peripheral stats.
Now on to the great matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I always love targeting point guards against Russell Westbrook, and now we get a point guard with a high ceiling who is also underpriced. Another factor that grabs my attention is the pace up game with it being played in OKC. Conley could be in store for a big night, and I see him getting it done in all departments, especially steals; in his last four games he has six steals. Play Conley at this price in this plus matchup and don’t look back.
Shooting Guard: Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets – $4,700
We always need to try and find a little bit of value in our lineups, and Gary Harris provides some relief in that department. The Nuggets have had numerous players listed on their injury report lately. We know for sure that Gallinari is out and he plays a lot of minutes on most nights. Mike Malone has been known for weird rotations with certain players, but he has shown consistent faith with Harris, so he should have no problem getting 30 minutes in this matchup. His three-point shooting stands out to me as of late, as he is shooting 8-for-16 in his last four games.
The Nuggets will be hosting the Bucks, who have been pretty solid on the defensive end but are league average at best against the shooting guard spot. Shooting guard is a position I always love to save salary at, and Harris should make value in this spot, with the Nuggets’ roster somewhat banged up. The team’s last game against Memphis turned into a blowout early, so it does not concern me he had a poor performance; this game should stay close. Harris is one of my favorite point per dollar plays at the shooting guard position.
Small Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks – $10,300
Let me start off by saying that this is a risky pick because of his recent level of play, but I will break that down a bit later. Yes, this is the second straight week he has made my picks. Now on to his recent level of play and production. In his last game he faced the Jazz at Utah, and that game could not have been uglier for the entire Bucks team. The game was pretty much over by half and I could tell that by the demeanor of the entire team. Before that horrible matchup, the Greek Freak was playing pretty consistent basketball. Minus the Jazz game, he has taken at least 15 shots in each of his last 10 games, and on the season he is shooting over 50%.
The Bucks head to Denver to take on the Nuggets, and this is a great matchup for Giannis here. The Nuggets have been torched by opposing point guards and small forwards on the season, which are the Greek Freak’s primary positions. This game will most likely be high scoring and have a close spread. Vegas is most likely waiting on the news of Jokic to release the spread, which would have some effect on Giannis here, with him being a way better rim protector than Nurkic. If Jokic is out, expect a ton of small ball from Mike Malone. Regardless of that injury news though, I love Giannis in this spot.
Power Forward: Thaddeus Young, Indiana Pacers – $5,400
This by far is always the toughest position for me. If i could, I’d skip PF today. Thaddeus Young is my second-favorite point per dollar play at the power forward position behind Jabari Parker. The reason I say second is that I try not to pick a ton of players from the same game, so I don’t limit my upside on a big slate. Now onto my pick, Young pops out to me for a couple reasons. Firstly, he has surprisingly been pretty consistent at that price tag and really has had no true dud as of late. Secondly, his minutes have been locked right at about 30; if there is one thing I love being consistent, it’s minutes.
Now we get Thad in a matchup against his former team in the Nets. I like that this game is in Brooklyn due to the fact they have kept most of their games close at home. That narrative of revenge is not something I really believe in to be honest, but what I do see is a golden matchup against the worst defense in the NBA, a defense that is second in allowed points to power forwards. This is definitely a risky tournament play with a player that is somewhat capped, but we will get him at low ownership in a golden matchup at a nice price tag.
Center: Mason Plumlee, Portland Trail Blazers – $6,300
Don’t look now everyone, but Portland has won four of their last five games. Last year this is the point in the season that they started to mesh as well. Mason Plumlee has been a big reason of their recent success. The Trail Blazers pretty much had the Charlotte game over by the fourth quarter, so I am going to leave that game out. In his five games prior to the Charlotte game, he was averaging right around thirty-eight fantasy points a game. If he was priced up any higher, I would not look his way, but he is priced right where he should be to return value.
On to the matchup with Dallas. I am not sure where DraftKings is getting their defensive rankings, but they are not the number one defense against centers, at least in my projections. One of the biggest reasons they are ranked highly against centers is their pace of play, but with this game being played in Portland that will not matter. Also, when Dirk starts at center, he really forces opposing centers to come out of the paint to guard him. Plumlee is athletic enough to do that and still chew him up on the boards. Most people will not like Plumlee in this spot, but that is what makes this play even better for me: the low ownership.