NBA Starting 5: (GPP) Friday, November 18th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Just about a month into this young NBA season and we can finally feel like we have a grasp on each team’s rotation. The first month of the NBA season is always tough for me due to this reason. With all the offseason moves and rookies entering the league, we now have a true understanding for most teams (keyword MOST). This makes the Advanced Player Stats tool so important to me.
Today, I will be using the usage rate of each player, which is easily one of my favorite stats to use while constructing my lineups. This helps players who don’t always have time to watch the games. Last week was another successful week hitting on four-of-five for at least 5x value, but as usual, not good enough. We want that five-for-five. My Oladipo play was very scrutinized from most, and I stood by it, but unfortunately it was a just too early. Let’s see if I can get that five-for-five with 6x value on this great GPP slate.
Point Guard: Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets – $8,200 on DraftKings
It is a little weird not writing about Lillard in this section, but this spot for Kemba Walker is too good. I would pay another thousand for Kemba just being at home. He is the type of player that always gets up for the home crowed and has been playing tremendous basketball as of late. Kemba is always under owned on larger GPP slates, but I’m not sure that will be the case with his recent games; let’s hope he is under owned in this great matchup.
With a usage rate at 30 (which will only go up) it shows that they want the ball in his hands. Kemba draws the Atlanta Hawks defense that is not very intimidating, especially if Dwight Howard is out again. The Hawks have been torched by a few point guards this NBA season, and it won’t stop here, making Kemba my top tournament point guard.
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors – $8,600
This pick is hard for me just knowing the type of player he has been in the past. DeRozan is having the best season of his career, and while everyone keeps waiting for him to bust, I am jumping on the bandwagon before it is too late. The regression has not happened, and I do not see it happening anytime soon. He is finally getting peripheral stats while pouring on the buckets and simply is priced too low right now.
DeMar DeRozan’s usage rate is through the roof and is the highest among shootings guards (yes, the highest) at 36%. Anytime he is on the floor the Raptors force feed him the ball, which they have been doing for years. The difference now is the peripheral stats, and for that reason he is my favorite shooting guard in cash and tournaments tonight.
Small Forward: Paul George, Indiana Pacers – $8,100
Paul George has not had the season we all expected, but it is still very early. I do believe he will turn it around and he’s coming off a very nice outing last game. Obviously LBJ didn’t play, but he will still be coming into this easy matchup against the Suns with some confidence. A blowout is definitely a concern, but I see them making a game of it because the Pacers have not been playing well lately.
George’s usage is 26%, which is higher than average, but it would be nice see that a bit higher. Throughout the season they will realize the ball should be in his hands more often. The Pacers will need to give him the ball more if they want to get out of this little slump. With a high total, as long as this game stays close Paul George will have a big night.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers – $8,300
Blake Griffin is simply just too cheap at this price tag! All the blowouts from the Clippers has really hurt his upside, but I believe this game will not turn into a blowout; at least we can hope it doesn’t. The Kings have played at a slower pace, but this is a good tournament play with the amount of upside he has. I think they will put Jordan on “Boogie” Cousins and Blake will guard Koufos, which only helps his production.
Griffin has one of the highest usage rates at the power forward position at 27%. When he is on the floor they really like to give him the ball, and rightfully so; he has been a different player this year. This is probably the riskiest pick due to the blowout concern, but being on the road in Sacramento should help this game stay close. With all this said, Griffin is still my top tournament forward due to his immense upside.
Center: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors – $5,600
This man will always be one of my favorite centers to target and is big reason why I’m here today. He is the type of player that can help you take down a tournament. Valanciunas is always low owned and has a lot of upside and his price tag is just way too low. The big concern will be if the Nuggets decide to play small. Last time they played they did not, and Nurkic had one of his best games this season, but that rotation is a mess for Denver. We just do not know what Mike Malone will do. Even in limited minutes he can easily pay of this low salary and has great upside if he is on the floor longer than 30 minutes against this poor Denver defense. He is one of my top tournament plays at center.