NBA Starting 5: Thursday, December 29th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today’s slate is much like a day at Disneyland with your kids. You’re going to have plenty of people screaming at you telling you where you need to go, but there a few places that are on the list that there should be zero arguments about (hello, Pirates of the Caribbean and the Winnie the Pooh ride). Pick and choose the rides you want to go on carefully tonight, because if you don’t we all know that there’s a chance you jump into an overcrowded long line — see: Finding Nemo ride (FYI, if you didn’t figure it out, Disneyland is a metaphor for tonight’s slate. If you’re not smart enough to figure that out, you probably shouldn’t be playing DFS or even operating a computer).
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful research tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and USG%. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors, $8,700
This is easily my favorite play on the slate tonight. This game has by far the highest over/under on the slate — what’s more, Kyle “Don’t call me Mike cause this isn’t Bad Boys” Lowry is going up against the number 23 DvP team against the PG and is going up against one of the highest paced teams in the NBA in Phoenix. Add in the fact that Lowry has been dropping 40 and 50 point games more often lately than I have been showering (it’s Christmas and I have no one to impress), and you can guarantee that this guy is going to hit value.
Also, you need to keep in mind that this is a slate with Westbrook on it, who is going to garner a very high amount of ownership against a great defensive Memphis team. With a price difference of nearly $4,000, you need to treat this situation like you would at an Applebee’s Happy Hour. Pay down for the mac and cheese bites that are 50% off, even though you would prefer full priced nachos.
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors, $8,400
I’ve always been told that things that come in pairs are better (twins, socks, Doublemint Gum, those things that hang below a girls neck, etc.) Nearly everything I said about Lowry can also be said DeRozan tonight. He faces a similarly juicy matchup (24th in DvP) against a high paced team with a massive over/under. He leads all SGs in usage tonight with a 32.86% rate and is by far the best option. A lot of people worry about playing both DeRozan and Lowry in the same lineup, but as we saw last night they can always go off for a huge game in the same game. If you’re playing in cash, make sure both these two are in every single lineup and in GPPs, I think it’s still a great strategy.
Small Forward: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz, $7,800
There are a few things working against this guy tonight. The game against the 76ers is projected to be a bit of a blowout and King James is on the slate, but I really don’t give a flying fudge — #CensoringForTheKids. Hayward owns the second-highest usage at the SF position tonight at 25.97% and Philly owns the 25th-ranked DvP against the SF position. Aside from one game against GS, Hayward has been putting up 40 points consistently for the last week and a half, and tonight will be no different. Don’t worry about the blowout; take the guy with lower ownership than LeBron and take the massive savings.
Power Forward: Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder, $5,400
There always seems to be a little bit of skepticism about rostering Kanter, but tonight I have none. One thing which you generally can bank on is Kanter putting up solid points per minute, but you can’t always bank on those minutes. Now you can. Kanter has been putting up 30 minutes a game as of late and he’s facing a big Memphis team, meaning OKC is going to need some size in the lineup. You can bank on Kanter getting in the game early and often. Kanter also has the third-highest usage rate of relevant PFs (sorry Dirk, not counting you because you’re old enough to remember the moon landing). He is incredibly reasonably priced tonight at $5,400, and this position is not filled with many optimal plays, so throw this guy in and fill in the other pieces later.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $7,500
The last time Gobert had a game without double-double, I’m pretty sure gas was under a $1 per gallon and Seinfeld was only on its third season. Gobert has been the model of consistency (and by model, I mean Kate Upton caliber model) and is a lock for 30 points every time he hits the floor. Yes, I have a bit of a concern of a blowout here just like Hayward, but with his price still in the mid-$7,000 range going against a team that is 26th in the league against the C position (and Embiid already ruled out for the night), I love this matchup. He may not own the highest usage on the slate, but he owns the second-highest POW-Reb on the slate behind Whiteside and has a chance at 20 rebounds tonight. If you have the money in GPPs, you can pay a little extra for Whiteside, but for safety and consistency, Gobert is absolutely the play.