NBA Starting 5: Thursday, February 16th

The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.

Well, the All-Star Break is almost upon us and all we have left to get our final DFS fix is a sad little two-game slate. If you’re playing today, let me make one thing clear. You’re a big ol’ dumb dumb. That being said, I will be playing today. Just realize that essentially anyone who you play is going to be “chalk”, so hopefully the picks here are slightly less popular.

Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and USG%. Fade these plays at your own risk.

Point Guard: Rajon Rondo, Chicago Bulls, $4,200

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Before you go googling my address to send me a glitter bomb, let me explain myself. This pick makes every single person who will actually click on Rondo’s name sick to their stomach, and because of this, he is a great play. Mangone, also known as “Manbone”, has Rondo pegged at 10% ownership at the time of this writing. You’re going to need someone at low ownership if you’re going to take down a GPP today. Rondo has a great chance to be that guy.

Firstly, we have the revenge narrative against his old team, and as we all know Rondo is vengeful, so he’s going to want to do something against them. Secondly, even though he’s coming off the bench in all likelihood, he’s still going to get a bit of Isaiah Thomas, bar none the worst defender in the league. Rondo has gotten 23 minutes in each of the last four games and he has a chance in any given game to go off for 2 FPPM, and therefore he has a shot at going 10x.

The Bulls are a giant dumpster fire and could just say fudge it and give Rondo either 30 or three minutes, so this is either going to be a beautiful disaster or a beautiful dream for anyone who plays him. Play Rondo at your own risk, but on a two-game slate you need to take a chance if you’re going to take down a GPP.

Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis, Indiana Pacers, $3,700

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You want another guy with a chance at 10x today? Well, here he is. In every single game so far this month, Ellis has gotten over 20 minutes, and he has put up more than 20 DK points in each of the last five games. I hate using the 6x system more than I hate admitting that TheSeige won a bet, but Ellis is averaging over 6x at his current price over the last five.

Ellis is going to garner fairly high ownership today, but it is entirely justified, as there are actually only two or three less viable players in play tonight than there are women willing to talk to me in any given state (outside of Iowa…they do not have high standards there). Know that a 30% owned player who hits 6x is not a good fade on a two-game slate, so throw him in your lineup or end the night crying like many DFS players did two days ago. Also, happy belated Valentine’s Day.

Small Forward: Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics, $5,600

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You know that Butler is the play here. Without Wade on the floor, he has a crazy high usage, but on a two-game slate he’s going to garner a crazy high ownership. We’ve all experienced a night in which Butler is the chalk and he leaves us calling an ex because we’ve realized we’ve made some bad life choices.

Crowder hasn’t topped 30 DK points in the last four games, but prior to that he was a virtual lock for that plateau. This isn’t the best matchup tonight, nor is it the safest play, but we have seen 40-point upside from Crowder in the recent past. With Bradley still out, there’s always a decent chance that he could be the one to see that usage bump. Crowder has the fourth-highest eFG% on the entire slate, and if he starts chucking up a bunch of threes, he has a chance to rack up a lot of points in a hurry. Again, this is strictly a GPP play, because if you’re playing cash tonight, you’re dumber than any company that would actually hire me (I don’t mean that RG; please don’t fire me).

Power Forward: Markieff Morris, Washington Wizards, $6,900

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I’ve been playing Morris nearly every single slate he’s been available for in 2017. You want to know a fun fact? Nobody likes playing him because of what he’s done to them in the past. Every single slate he is far less owned than he should be, and he’s virtually been money in the bank every single time he’s been on the floor. Only twice out of his last 10 games has he failed to hit value, and there were several slates during that span in which he was less than 5% owned. Obviously tonight he’s going to get a much higher ownership considering it’s a two-game slate, but whatever it is it’s going to be way too low. He has the highest usage of any PF on the slate, and that’s including the first 25 games of the season when they refused to use him that much. The points and minutes here are secure, and he is going to be way too underowned. This guy is by far my biggest lock of the entire slate.

Center: Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics, $4,500

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As I am writing this, I have found a long blonde hair stuck in my beard. I have not seen a blonde person in at least three days, so I may need to start showering more. Back on topic, Kelly Olynyk has had at least 13 points and seven rebounds in each of his last four games, which is enough for him to reach value at this price, not even including all of the additional points, rebounds, and peripheral stats.

Olynyk has been a virtual lock as of late and his price has slowly crept up. He is now in the range where he may or may not be playable. Because this is a two-game slate and people are going to be hesitant to pay for his price increase, he is a great play today. Over the last four, Olynyk has played a minimum of 23 minutes in each game. Add to this that the Bulls are middle of the pack at guarding the center position and Olynyk should deliver at least 6x in this matchup. Center is basically a crapshoot tonight, but Olynyk is probably your safest and best option.

About the Author

gneiffer07
Grant Neiffer (gneiffer07)

One of the most vibrant and interesting personalities in all of DFS and sports betting, Grant Neiffer (aka gneiffer07) has Economics and Accounting degrees from Azusa Pacific University. He’s been playing DFS since 2013 and fantasy sports from the ripe old age of 10. In recent years, Grant has turned his attention primarily to sports betting, and in 2021, he finished 3rd in the DraftKings Sports Betting National Championship, taking home $230,000. You can find all of Grant’s sports betting analysis on ScoresAndOdds and the Action Network. Follow Grant on Twitter – @gneiffer07