NBA Starting 5: Thursday, February 2nd
Welp, it’s already Thursday and I still haven’t worn anything but sweatpants all week. That isn’t relevant to the article, but I just thought I could shame myself into putting on real pants.
We have an interesting little 3.5-game slate (I don’t count Philly players against the Spurs), and there are a lot of different ways you can go tonight. I don’t know if it is the best game for cash tonight, but there are plenty of different ways you can go for GPPs.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and Advanced Player Stats. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors, $8,700
Sorry everyone, I wanted to go contrarian at this spot, but Steph has been spitting hot fire as of late. Fading Steph tonight is akin to walking around all night with loose fireworks and matches in your pocket. Yes, fading Steph can save you some room, but there’s a good chance that you may end up burned…on your D. In any case, Steph hasn’t had under 40 DK points since before January 10th (if any of you point out the Houston game, I will not be happy — I decided to round up), and he has 60 in back-to-back games. You may look at the DvP rankings and see that nice little #5 ranking vs. the PG for the Clippers, but what you have to realize that’s mostly because of Chris Paul; Austin Rivers is an absolutely dreadful defender and owns a -2.23 DRPM. As an added kicker, people are still under the assumption that Curry is a “role player” in this offense, which is completely asinine as he owns the third-highest usage on the slate among PGs at 30.06%. DON’T GET CUTE AND DON’T FADE HIM.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, Los Angeles Lakers, $5,700
Look, the real answer to this is Harden. We all know this, but I don’t want to just state the obvious this entire article, so I’m going with Lou here. Williams has essentially been Mr. Jeckle/Dr. Hyde (really not sure which one of those guys has a PhD, so I may have gotten that wrong). As of late, Lou Williams is a virtual lock for over 40 or under 20. In his last 10 he has four games over 40 and four under 20. If Randle is out of the lineup, I think that it gives a decent bump to Lou. as he tends to excel a little more when other key players are out of the Lakers lineup, but even with Randle in there I have no problem going with Lou. He owns the second-highest usage on the slate at the SG position and Beal is not an imposing defender (although Lou won’t match up against him exclusively coming off the bench), so don’t pay too much attention to the third-ranked DvP against the SG. Again, this is clearly just a GPP play, but it is a very strong one.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs, $9,000
Quick question, do you want to pay $10,300 for your small forward in a blowout game or $9,000 for your SF in a blowout game? If you answered anything but, “Fudge, those are my only two options” then you probably know what you’re doing tonight and don’t need my advice, but if you didn’t, then play Kawhi. Yes, this game will in all likelihood be a bit of a blowout, but the 76ers have been keeping games fairly close as of late, and both Pau and Aldridge are out of the lineup tonight. If you look at RG’s CourtIQ tool, you can see without them on the floor, Kawhi owns a 39.9% usage rate. Now, you may take this for granted, but the all-time usage rate record of a season prior to this season is still just 38.74%. Keeping this in mind and that a guy named Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (pretty sure I’d have better luck figuring out the female anatomy that pronouncing his name) will be guarding him, all signs point to Kawhi putting up value on his price tonight. I’m not going to fault you for punting at SF tonight, but I think there is safety in Kawhi.
Power Forward: Markieff Morris, Washington Wizards, $6,800
Checklist time. Most consistent player over the last two weeks? Check. Hasn’t had a drastic price increase lately? Check. Has one of the best matchups on the slate? Check. Has fudged over every single player in DFS at one point or another so no one trusts him? Check. For any of you who played the last slate with Morris on it, you saw what I saw. His ownership was thinner than Chris Gimino’s beard. Morris in the past has been a model of inconsistency, but we all know his talent, and it seems the Wizards have figured out that they should probably use this guy. He has had double digit shots and has played over 30 minutes in 9nine out of his last 10, and he is going up against the Lakers, who rank near the bottom in nearly every single DvP category and are near the top of the league in terms of pace. Morris is a near lock for 30 tonight and should be closer to 50 DK points.
Center: Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks, $6,900
So, this is almost entirely revenge narrative oriented. Howard’s last game against the Rockets, he had 15 rebounds and 20 points. I expect something similar tonight. Houston ranks fourth in pace of play and ranks 24th in DvP against the C position. I would normally be worried about Dwight on a back to back, but he only played 25 minutes in last night’s game, so he should be fine in this one. He’s averaging around 35 DK points over his last six and that includes a real dud last night in a game, which was a blowout. If you really want to, I don’t mind paying up a little bit more for Jordan, or punting the position all together, but I don’t think you’re going to get nearly as high of a ceiling with anyone else tonight as you’re going to with Howard.