NBA Starting 5: Thursday, February 9th
Editor’s Note: LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving are all expected to play now.
Today’s slate is just plain silly. The Cavs came in here and just completely fudged everyone over. There is an absolutely obvious strategy that you almost have to play. Just throw a bunch of Cavs into your lineup and then throw in two or three of highest-priced players on the board tonight. If for some reason one of the big three decide to play, play him and play several other Cavs. Now that we established what you are going to do tonight, here are some pivots to differentiate yourself.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and Advanced Player Stats. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers, $8,900
Again, the answer here is Westbrook. There is so much value on the board, why the hell would you not play him? But Lillard isn’t a terrible option either. Lillard has had over 40 DK points in four of his last six and has had just shy of 50 in his last two.
That type of production isn’t all that impressive at his current price, but there is one major difference with his matchup tonight; he gets the defense of Isaiah Thomas. If you look at what he’s done this year on the offensive side of the ball, you think that the guy could be in the MVP running, but if you look at real plus-minus, IT has been a league average player. The amount of points that he costs his team on the defensive side of the ball is 25% larger than the next worst PG on the list. Thomas is worse at defense than Robin Lopez is at grooming himself. Lillard isn’t likely to outscore Westbrook on any given night, but with how chalky he will be and the chance of a blowout in the OKC game, it’s not stupid to pivot to Lillard.
Shooting Guard: Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets, $7,600
Again, the answer here is Harden. You’re going to have the money here, there’s a chance that the OKC game blows out, and other than a roughly 60% ownership on Harden, there is absolutely zero reason to fade Harden tonight.
Now, if you need another SG to play that’s not Harden, Batum is the far and away best choice. He gets a huge pace-up matchup against the Rockets tonight in a game that should be close, if the Vegas spread is any indication. He draws a matchup against Harden, and all we can really say about him is that his defense is better than Isaiah’s. Add in the fact that Kemba will draw the defense of quite possibly the best PG defender in the league in Beverley, and you’re going to have a real shot at Batum going absolutely nuts tonight. Again, I’m not saying to fade Harden, but if you do, this is where you need to go.
Small Forward: Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers, $5,400
Your choices tonight at the SF position are about as extensive as the list of women who would hit on me at the bunny ranch (I don’t care if they’re paid, they would still probably go for the creepy old guy over me because, you know, I look like I couldn’t afford it anyways).
In any case, Hayward draws a pace-down matchup, James is out, and I already told you to play Cavs tonight, so I’m going with Covington. Without Embiid on the floor, according to RG’s Court IQ tool, we see that Covington gets a 1.7% usage bump and averages nearly a full FPPM. Only one out of the last seven games has Covington failed to play 35 minutes. He’s averaging 40 points over his last four games and tonight should be no different than normal. If we’re expecting him to play 37 minutes and a full point per minute, that means that Covington should hit 6x to 7x. With all Cavs value out there, Covington is one of the best players to throw into your lineup after Harden, Westbrook, and the Cavs value plays.
Power Forward: Ryan Anderson, Houston Rockets, $4,900
Play Frye, but if you don’t play him, play Anderson. In the last three games, Ryan Anderson has sat out on the court playing with himself and forgetting that basketball is his occupation. He’s put up 16, four, and 18 in his last three games. So, why would you play him now? Well, his last three games were at home, and I don’t know if the women in Houston are just awful or if at home Anderson sleeps in a really uncomfortable bed, but his home/road splits are massive.
On the road this year, Anderson is chucking up 7.6 three-point attempts a game and shooting nearly 50% on those shots. For reference, Anderson is shooting better from deep on the road than Curry is at home. Add in that Anderson’s price has dropped below $5,000 for the first time this month, and he’s going to be a great low-owned pivot off of Frye.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $6,700
Rudy Gobert draws what at first glance looks like a terrible matchup. Utah and Dallas are dead last in the league in pace, so watching this game will be similar to watching the ink dry on the tramp stamp of a 80-year-old man (sorry for the imagery, but now you get that this game is going to be gross).
There is one huge stat that I look at whenever it comes to a Dallas game, and that stat is rebounding differential. Dallas has a -6.21 rebounding differential, which is 33% higher than the next worst team, and that doesn’t even take into account that they will probably be missing their best defender and rebounder in Bogut tonight. Last time that Gobert went up against Dallas, he ended up with 25 rebounds and 66 DK points. Add in that DK has slowly been lowering his salary all the way from $7,500 five days ago, and I could see Gobert going for 10x again against this team.