NBA Starting 5: Thursday, March 23rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Okay everyone, we’ve got a fun little five-game slate tonight. There are a crazy amount of injuries around the league, so it’s time to take advantage of a few of the shorthanded teams. I will be getting a lot of exposure to the Phoenix and Brooklyn game, so sorry if this article sounds more like a love letter than analysis.
Today, I’m going to go through my top plays at each position regardless of price. We are going to use some of RG’s wonderful tools to look and find some great spots at just a glance. Mostly what we are going to be looking at is Defense v. Position and USG%. Fade these plays at your own risk.
Point Guard: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers, $9,800
The first thing that I noticed today is that Lillard’s price is sky high right now, which is why I’m going here. With all the injuries in Phoenix, Ulis is going to be chalkier than eating an entire bottle of tums (I’ve done it before), so you’re going to need to find a good pivot off of him. Yes, this is way more than you’ve had to pay for Lillard in the past. Yes, this game does have a chance of a blowout, but if this game does stay close, this is the type of game where Lillard can go off for 60 points. Portland isn’t the type of team that generally blows teams out, and Lillard has pretty much hit or exceeded value at the price in five of his last six games. NYK is fourth against the PG in terms of DvP, but Rose (if he even plays) owns one of the worst DRPMs in the entire league. Expect Lillard to really exploit this tonight.
Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns, $6,800
Everyone and their mother are going to be on Devin Booker tonight, and there’s good reason for that. The Suns’ roster, at this point, is about as large as the main cast of Full House. Everyone on the team is going to have to play a large amount of minutes, and there is a lot of usage to go around. Phoenix draws the dream DFS matchup tonight against Brooklyn. These are two very fast paced teams, Phoenix is shorthanded, and a lot of points are going to have to be scored.
Booker has shot 13-for-55 from the field in the last three games he’s played, which is not normal for anyone who is good enough to play in the NBA, so you can expect him to revert back to the mean in the FG% department. You can fade him if you want tonight, but when you know someone is going to be chucking up shots over and over again, I tend to worry a little less about ownership and just throw him in the lineup.
Small Forward: Justin Holiday, New York Knicks, $3,100
SF tonight is so ugly that you are forced to either play Kawhi or punt the position all together. I’ve going to be doing combinations of both on tonight’s slates, and in the lineups where I’m punting, Holiday is going to be my guy. There’s a chance that Derrick Rose doesn’t play tonight, and if he doesn’t that gives Holiday a pretty big boost in minutes, and if Rose does play I’ll still probably take some chances on Holiday.
At near the min priced, there aren’t going to be a lot of situations where Holiday really kills your lineup, as he should end up getting at least 10 points in this matchup (which at min price at the worst position you’ll still be in the game). If Holiday actually gets some run tonight, he really has a shot to 10x his price tonight. You shouldn’t play him in cash (or really be playing cash at all at this point), but in GPPs he may actually be the best play on the board at SF.
Power Forward: Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns, $5,800
I said it earlier, but the Suns are banged up at this point. Everyone on the team is going to have to play a whole lot of minutes tonight, and Chriss is no exception. The one major knock on Chriss is that he can accumulate a whole lot of fouls real quickly. The last time that he had less than four fouls, I had just learned how to use the big boy potty (so sometime around early March). If Chriss can keep from fouling out of this game or getting in foul trouble in this game, he’s in store for a big showing.
Chriss is a guy that can contribute in four categories in a big way. If Chriss can see the floor for 35 minutes for tonight’s game against the worst defensive team in the NBA (who also gets blocked more than any other team), he really has a shot at 50 points tonight. There are other places you can go tonight, but for the price very few really have the upside that Chriss has.
Center: Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets, $6,900
Over the last six games, Lopez is averaging close to 40 points per game and his usage is over 33%. The dude is on an absolute tear. He’s going to be facing a team that’s going to be more winded for most of the game than I am after climbing a flight of stairs. Sorry to be a broken record, but this game is going to be crazy high paced and is expected to stay close.
BroLo is going to get 18 shots or more in the game, and if he catches fire has a real shot at putting up 50. Phoenix is 25th in DvP against the center and that number should probably be lower considering that Tyson Chandler is injured. You can go with other guys at around the same price range, but few have the upside or the floor that BroLo has