NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, November 22nd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today, I’m going to use the Advanced Stats tool to identify top plays at each position on DraftKings. It’s one thing for a player to get minutes, but it’s another for that player to actually be involved when he’s on the court. For example, Brandon Knight was a popular value play on DraftKings last night given his insertion into the starting lineup. The minutes seemed safe (though he only played 28 in a close game), but the issue was usage. Starting next to guys like Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker doesn’t lend itself to a high usage rate. He was a fade for me, and the fact that he finished with just 14 fantasy points (7.5 from rebounds) on seven shots supports my argument that minutes do not necessarily equal fantasy production.
Let’s take a look at some usage rates to focus on players who not only will see plenty of minutes, but will be in position to capitalize on those minutes as well.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder, $12,500
If you’re not rostering Westbrook tonight on a short slate in what projects to be a close, high-scoring game with the Lakers, I suggest not playing. No players comes remotely close to challenging Westbrook for highest usage rate on today’s slate. Even Damian Lillard, a player who has the ball in his hands a lot and takes a ton of shots, is over 12% behind Westbrook. A nightly triple double threat capable of scoring 40 real points, Westbrook is probably underpriced tonight despite his $12,500 price tag. A dud for him would be 50 fantasy points tonight. Your lineups should start with him, and I’m perfectly fine straight gambling on a value pick at other position in order to fit him in. The opportunity cost of missing out on a monster performance outweighs anything else for me tonight.
Shooting Guard: Lou Williams, Los Angles Lakers, $5,300
Some players simply won’t roster guys who come off the bench, but that’s a mistake. Would you rather take a player who plays 32 minutes with a low usage rate, or someone who sees 24 minutes off the bench but acts as the primary scoring option most of the time they’re on the court? I’ll take the latter every time. Williams is in early Sixth Man of the Year discussions, and after an odd two game stretch where he saw less than 20 minutes, he’s seen 27 and 30 over his last two games. The 27 were with D’Angelo Russell out, but Russell played 23 last game. Russell is currently questionable, and it’s possible we won’t know if he’s playing or not until after lock. I like Williams regardless as he’s going to see his minutes anyway. Russell missing would just be a bonus.
As we can see from the tool, Williams is sporting a 29.29% usage rate, highest of any shooting guard eligible player on tonight’s slate. He draws a terrific matchup with an up tempo Thunder team, and while he’s mostly scoring dependent, he’ll get enough assists and steals to supplement his scoring. I think he’s a near lock for 20 to 25 fantasy points with clear upside for more.
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks, $7,800
Carmelo Anthony and Jimmy Butler are the two top option at the small forward position with Anthony checking in with a slightly higher usage rate, though Butler is typically better at stuffing the stat sheet. Anthony is significantly cheaper, though, and I’ll likely be leaning his way tonight. Portland is not a good defensive team, and this game projects to be close, meaning we should see heavy minutes from Anthony. Plus, with Joakim Noah likely out tonight, we’ll likely see more lineups with Kristaps Porzingis at the five, moving Anthony to the four. He’s better at the four, and his fantasy production is better there as well. Anthony has a very safe floor of around 35 fantasy points, and I think he finishes with over 40 in this particular matchup. He’s a great bargain at $7800 who will almost certainly be in my cash game lineups tonight.
Power Forward: Kyle O’Quinn, New York Knicks, $3,600
Kyle O’Quinn, or as I like to call him, Kyle O’Fouls, should draw the start tonight with Joakim Noah listed as doubtful. He’s not going to play heavy minutes, but he’ll play enough to reach value or somewhere close to that tonight, and that’s good enough for me. Stars are the priority for me tonight, and if I have to use a guy like O’Quinn that I might not normally use on a bigger slate with, I’ll do to just to fit in a guy like Westbrook who might drop 70 fantasy points. O’Quinn is sporting a usage rate near 20%, and given his ability to rack up defensive stats, he’s typically a guy who can produce at about a fantasy point per minute. So, even if he plays 18 minutes, you can expect around 18 fantasy points, which is perfectly fine at his price. Plus, the salary cap savings offers another level of value that has nothing to do with how many points O’Quinn actually earns.
Center: Robin Lopez, Chicago Bulls, $5,300
Sometimes we can’t simply look at season-long numbers and make a judgment. In looking at the advanced stats chart, we can see that, for the season, Lopez’s usage rate is a fairly low 16.13%. Sure, he gets rebounds and blocks, but we don’t want to solely rely on that for fantasy production. We want guys who can score as well. If we take a look at Lopez’s game log, however, we can see that he’s logged over 10 field goal attempts in five of his last six games with at least 15 in four of them. Facing a Denver team that pushes the pace and defends opposing big men very poorly should lend itself to another strong outing from Lopez. He can easily finish with over 30 fantasy points in this matchup, making him a terrific cash and tournament play at just $5300.
As always, make sure you’re utilizing multiple research tools in order to form your opinions about a particular player. Roles change, usage rates change, and workloads change. Fortunately, we have many tools here at RotoGrinders that will help you stay on top of what’s going on in the NBA.