NBA Starting 5: Tuesday, October 25th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but there is no better time than when NBA and NFL overlap. After dealing with a high variance, and often unpredictable sport like baseball, it’s nice to get to analyze something that tends to make a bit more sense. This leads right into the tool we are going to look at today, the Touches tool.
You can look at DvP and any other statistic you want, but the fact of the matter is that players can’t do much if they’re not touching the ball. If you don’t get a chance to sit down and actually watch some of these games, taking a look at who touches the ball the most on a particular team is a great way to identify who tends to be the focus of the offense. This can obviously change a bit due to a particular matchup, but for the most part, the top guys on a team are going to be the top guys night in and night out. Let’s see who the best options are at each position on tonight’s three game slate.
Point Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors, $9,600 on DraftKings
Curry is the clear top play at the point guard position tonight. I’ve sorted the table by fantasy points per touch, and what we can see is that Curry blows Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving out of the water in that regard. Irving’s were also significantly lower than Lillard’s and Curry’s, which makes sense considering he’s not the top guy on offense night in and night out like the other two. Lillard draws a very tough matchup with Utah and George Hill, and while some may argue the Warriors have a tough matchup with the Spurs, I would argue that the Warriors are matchup-proof, and any time Curry has Tony Parker (a defensive liability at this point in his career), he’ll be in a terrific spot. I’m also not concerned about the addition of Kevin Durant, who will obviously take a lot more shots than Harrison Barnes ever did. Curry’s production is not going to suffer. I think it’s much more likely Draymond Green offensive numbers suffer as he’ll be the fourth option instead of the third. Curry is still going to get his, and as one of the most efficient players in the league in terms of fantasy points per touch, he’s locked into my lineups tonight.
Shooting Guard: Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz, $6,000
Editor’s Note: Derrick Favors has been ruled out for tonight.
It’s Hood or Thompson as the top shooting guard play today, and with them being so close, I’m leaning Hood because he’s $500 cheaper. I also think he’s more likely to be heavily involved offensively with Gordon Hayward out, and even more so if Derrick Favors (questionable) misses tonight as well. As we can see from the table, only Evan Turner had more touches per game than Hood last season, and with Turner on a new team in a bad matchup, I’m passing on him tonight. Hood’s expected touches are also sure to sure with Hayward out of the lineup.
We can also see that Thompson put up a staggering 0.67 fantasy points per touch last season, which makes sense when you consider Golden State’s elite ball movement and ability to create mismatches off of screens and switches put him in a lot of great spots. That’s only going to get better with the addition of Kevin Durant. It remains to be seen if Durant will cut into Thompson’s touches, and hence his overall offensive production. He could certainly have a big game, especially with plus defender Danny Green out for tonight’s game. Hood and Thompson are both terrific options, but if that $500 savings allows you to make a significant upgrade elsewhere in your lineup, Hood makes more sense.
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, $9,000
Honestly, James, Durant, and Leonard are all terrific plays tonight, and I will have some combination of two of them in my main cash game lineup. From the Touches table, we can see that James’s touches per game are well above any other small forward tonight, though it remains to be seen how Durant’s numbers change in a completely different environment. What we do know is the Cavs offense is going to run through James, and he should have no trouble posting a solid stat line against an interesting Knicks squad. From a price and production reliability perspective, James gets the nod as my top small forward play of the night.
Power Forward: Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz, $3,600
Editor’s Note: Derrick Favors has been ruled out for tonight.
Unfortunately, Lyles isn’t available on the chart, but it suffices to say that if Favors doesn’t play tonight, he’s an elite value option that you should lock in and not think twice about. Even if Favors does play, I’ll still likely be using Lyles as he has high usage off the bench and can easily exceed value at his $3600 price tag. Also, his salary relief helps you fit in more studs, which is extremely helpful on a short slate.
As for Favors, I love him tonight if we get word that he’s going to start and has no limitations. He draws a terrific matchup with a Blazers team that really struggled with power forwards and centers last season. From the table, we can see that he touched the ball a lot during game, and he posted a respectable 0.47 fantasy points per touch. Expect his touches to increase with Gordon Hayward out, making him an excellent play for $6700 tonight. I think some players will look to LaMarcus Aldridge, but I’m not too interested in him. He’s going to have to deal with Draymond Green or Kevin Durant most of the time, and he’s likely going to lose some offensive production with Pau Gasol replacing Tim Duncan in the starting lineup. Gasol will be heavily involved on the offensive end while Duncan wasn’t last season.
Center: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, $7,000
Editor’s Note: Derrick Favors has been ruled out for tonight.
Gobert makes for a strong play tonight against a Blazers team that routinely gave up huge games to opposing centers last season. With the same front court in place, I don’t expect any difference this season. Last season, Gobert was mostly good for rebounds and blocks, offering little other than put backs off of offensive rebounds on offense. He was also a poor free throw shooter. However, he worked on his offensive game a lot in the off season, and from what we saw in preseason action, he should be a nightly double double threat. His free throw shooting is much improved, and I think we can count on him for around 14 points per game. Add in an almost certain double digit rebound total and some blocks, and you have a solid play at just $7000.
From the table, we can see that Gobert touched the ball around 60 times per game, which, surprisingly, isn’t much lower than Kevin Love average. With the improvements he’s made on the offensive end, I expect Gobert’s 0.47 fantasy points per touch to increase this season. If Derrick Favors misses tonight’s contest, he becomes an easy play for me against a team that he should absolutely dominate.