NBA Starting Five: Friday, April 1st

The Starting 5 series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.

Today we’ll take a closer look at our Ceiling and Consistency Tool, specifically looking at tonight’s FanDuel salaries.

As the page header states, the Ceiling and Consistency tool shows you how often each player has hit their value based on that day’s salary. The percentage columns (%3x, %4x, etc) show the percentage of the time that particular player has hit that value multiplier. For example, if a player has a salary of $5,000, the %3x column will show the percentage of games in which he has scored at least 15 fantasy points ($5,000 divided by 1000, then multiplied by three).

Personally, I enjoy using the tool to help identify underpriced players. Many new DFS NBA players fall into the trap of using the same players on all or most sites they play on, regardless of price. Perhaps as much as any DFS sport, a player’s price is supremely important for the NBA, and the Ceiling and Consistency tool lets us easily visualize that, seeing how that player has done historically given his price.

Point Guard: John Wall, Washington Wizards

Wall and the Wizards travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns and their horrible backcourt defense tonight. He’s been a model of consistency lately, logging 10+ assists in 13 of his last 14 games, and 13+ points in 14 of his last 15. Here’s that how that shakes out when looking at the Ceiling and Consistency Tool over the past 3 weeks:

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Obviously his upside is a little limited just given the price, but we’re paying for the high floor, and he certainly brings that tonight in a game where the Wizards are projected to score over 110 points based on the current line, over seven points more than their season average. The Wizards are fighting for their playoff lives right now too – they’re three games back of the Pacers for the 8th spot in the East (and two games back of the Bulls) with just seven games left on their schedule. With so many good teams resting players and bad teams shutting down players, targeting teams with something to play for (especially high dollar plays in good matchups) makes a lot of sense this time of year. Play Wall with confidence tonight.

Shooting Guard: Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

Booker just continues to produce and until he gets bumped up another $500 or so, it’s awfully hard not to roster him on a nightly basis at his current price. Like I wrote last week, I was concerned that Brandon Knight’s return would cut into his minutes, but that hasn’t been the case. He’s now played at least 31.5 minutes in 15 straight games, a time during which he’s averaging 37.89 minutes per game and 33.25 FanDuel points per game. Here’s how the last 3 weeks have looked at SG:

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Tonight’s matchup with the Wizards is nothing to be afraid of, as it comes with a 214 total and just a seven-point spread in favor of Washington. Booker had a tough game his last time out, committing seven turnovers and failing to record a steal or a block, but he was just as assertive as usual on the offensive end. He’s now taken 13 or more shots in his last 13 games, and it’s tough to find the type of usage and consistency he brings at SG – especially for just $7K. He’s in play for both tournaments and cash games tonight.

Small Forward: Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz

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Is Andrew Wiggins’ defense a concern? Absolutely. Has Derrick Favors’ return hurt Hayward’s usage? Not as much as you might think.

According to RotoGrinders’ own CourtIQ, for the month of March, Hayward’s usage for the month was 26%. With Favors on the floor? 26%. With Favors off the floor? 26%. He’s questionable for tonight, but even if he plays, Hayward’s still going to be squarely in play.

The Jazz have played some weird games lately, but we see how much they still count on Hayward, as he played 46 minutes in the OT loss to Golden State on Wednesday. The price is very nice on him tonight – look at how he’s done over the course of the season:

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This game will offer a nice pace bump for Utah (though just about every game does), and I love that the Jazz are in a dogfight for the final 2 playoff spots in the West with Dallas and Houston. I expect Otto Porter in that Washington/Phoenix game to be popular as well, but if you want to limit your exposure to that game, Hayward is a fine (if maybe underowned) option as well.

Power Forward: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

Power forward continues to be a little ugly this year. There’s merit to using someone like Zach Randolph who’s been very consistent without Marc Gasol, but I’m not thrilled about the matchup with Toronto. Carl Landry will play his share of minutes tonight with the Sixers’ frontcourt injuries, and Kevin Love is in play against the Hawks and their inability to rebound consistently. But if you’re paying up, Green is definitely the top dog tonight at home against Boston. Here’s how the last three weeks have looked for him:

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The Celtics will keep the pace up in this one, and I think they’re a competitive enough team to keep this closer than the 12-point spread suggests. Green’s played 35+ minutes in 8 straight, and motivation obviously won’t be a problem for the Warriors as they chase down the wins record over the next couple weeks. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the last 15 games, and I’d be shocked if he ends up under 35 FD points here.

Center: Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings

Koufos in a pace down game against Miami? Here’s the thing – when DeMarcus Cousins is out like he is tonight, the Kings have consistently turned to Koufos (over Willie Cauley-Stein and others) to replace him. Cousins has missed 12 games this year. In those 12, Koufos has played an average of 28.6 minutes (and no less than 23) and scored an average of 25.9 FD points (22+ in 9 of 12). At just $3.9K on FanDuel, there’s little downside with plenty of upside. Here’s how the last three weeks have looked for him:

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Obviously there’s merit in looking at the other side of this matchup to someone like Hassan Whiteside, who should be very popular tonight. Koufos will likely still be a little under owned, but the numbers without Cousins in a decent 12 game sample size suggest he’s one of the safest plays on the board, even in a difficult matchup.

Good luck tonight, Grinders!

About the Author

dre87
David Erfley (dre87)

David Erfley, aka dre87 is a top 50 overall daily fantasy player in the RotoGrinders rankings. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1999 and daily fantasy sports since 2013, and he began contributing to RG in late 2015.